How many people do you think would attend a trading seminar that advertised teaching to lose small? Or, how popular would a workshop be that was dedicated to extolling the virtues of preventing big losses in the financial markets? My guess is that unless there were a lot of incentives (perhaps a free trip to Vegas or a flat screen TV), not many people would show up to these events. The reason - no one likes to hear about losing.
Losing conjures up feelings of failure and pain, and since most human beings would rather avoid those two experiences, it's no surprise that anything dealing with these emotions would have very little appeal to the masses.
Now, on the other hand, if there were a promotion on how to trade with zero risk, great profit potential, and hardly any work, there wouldn't be a venue large enough to hold all the attendees. In reality, most of us know that no such thing exists (as much as we'd wish it did). This brings us to the reality of trading.
In class, I like to draw upon many analogies; one of my favorites when discussing the psychology of trading is to liken a trader to a boxer: A trader who hates, or fears, losing is akin to a boxer who feels similarly about taking punches. This, let's refer to him as the timid boxer, is the pugilist who always has his elbows close to his body, and his hands covering his face. Always on the defensive, this fellow rarely throws a jab as he is always on his heels. He's the one that's always clinching, hoping to stem the onslaught of punches being hurled at him. There's a commonly used quote in boxing: The clinch can keep you from losing, but it can't make you a winner.
The parallels in these two areas of endeavor are striking. For example, a trader must accept small losses, just as a boxer must know how to take a punch. However, neither one must let their guard down because just one blow to the chin (one big loss) could mean "game over." Likewise, the skilled boxer dodges and weaves, taking a few innocuous punches, until he sees an opening to strike his opponent where the most damage can be inflicted. A trader, in the same fashion, will incur those modest losses until he nails the trade that reaches his target.
The usual victor in a fighting match, or in any competition for that matter, is the one who can sense their opponent's weakness, and then exploit it. In boxing, it's referred to as the "killer instinct" or "going for the jugular." This occurs when you see a boxer backed into a corner, and the aggressor does not let up on his assault, until either the referee stops the fight with a technical knockout, or the timid boxer ends up supine on the canvas. This can also be seen in other professional sports like a football game in which one team has a fourth-and–goal, the winning team usually goes for the touchdown in that scenario. Meanwhile, the team playing "conservatively" settles for a field goal. I find that aggravating to see.
In the day trading arena, this goes on every day - the difference is that in trading, most of the beatings are self-imposed.
Put another way: Winners play to "win," as opposed to "not to lose." When a trader begins to love to take small losses, then, and only then, can he/she begin to play to win. Those of you that have been reading Lessons from the Pros for a while probably have read comparable themes from me or other writers at Online Trading Academy. Nonetheless, some subjects bear repeating, and this is one of them.
I believe the only way to begin embracing the losing aspect of trading is to gain the skill that will enable you to compete. I always tell my students, "The successful traders that I'm acquainted with are some of the smartest people I know and that's who you will be competing with." I also tell them that in my many years of trading I've only known two types of traders - traders that have lost money, and traders that are going to lose money. The difference between the survivors and the ones that have gone by the wayside is in how they've reacted to their losses and the size of those losses.
All told, fortify your mind to withstand the inevitable losses that will come from trading, just as the boxer will have to strengthen his abdominal muscles to better-defend against the inevitable body blows. If you find yourself being one of those who trade "not to lose," then I challenge you to change your way of thinking. Perhaps a more constructive way to view trading is to believe that small losses are simply the price to be paid for being a consistent winner in the markets. So ask yourself, do you really want to be a winner?
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Losing To Win
The hardest, but also most important lesson to learn in trading is how to handle losses gracefully. Most traders will inevitably encounter a string of losses at some point, so those who can't lose without being thrown off their game won't survive the market. The traders who have realistic win/loss expectations and a trading system they trust have the best chance of prevailing over tough market conditions. Here we look at what kind of losses traders can expect and how they can adjust their focus and strategy to deal with these losses.
Losing Battles …
Every trader worth his or her salt knows that trading against the trend is not a good idea. So it seems logical that the best trading systems would be those that follow the trend: when the trend is going up, take long trades only, and when it's going down, it's time to go short. That being said, you'd think that trend-following systems would have the best win/loss ratios, right?
In his book, "A Short Course in Technical Trading", Perry Kaufman offers some sobering statistics on the matter. According to this veteran program-trading expert and author, "You can expect 6 or 7 out of 10 trend trades to be losses, some small some a little larger." And yet, Kaufman says that trend-following systems are some of the best trading systems around. In other words, trend-following systems won't yield huge profits, but they'll still do better than most systems.
It will probably come as a shock to those who have spent countless hours searching for a winning system, but Kaufman makes it absolutely clear in his book that having realistic win/loss expectations means expecting losses - lots of them. He states, "As a trend trader, you should expect mostly small losses, some small profits, and a few large profits."
If it gets across this point alone,"A Short Course" is a worthwhile addition to your library. Kaufman provides an example to demonstrate a phenomenon traders in the game for the long haul have come to learn the hard way:
"In a normal distribution of 1,000 coin tosses, half of them would be single runs of heads or tails. Half of those, 25%, would be a sequence of either two heads or two tails. Half of the remaining, 12.5%, would be sequences of three in a row, and so on. Therefore, in 1,000 coin tosses, you can expect only one run of 10 heads or tails in a row."
In other words, in 1,000 trading days - or about four years - a trader could expect to experience 10 wins (or losses) in a row only once, that is, if trading were as random (normally distributed) as a series of coin tosses, which it is not.
So, your odds of winning with trend-following systems are better than your odds of winning a series of random coin tosses, but there are other challenges to having more winning than losing trades. Although markets are not random, you can still expect short-term random movements within a trend, major reversals at the end of each trend, and the time lag most trend-following systems experience when getting into and out of the market.
As a result, thanks to lags and unexpected short-term random movements, you are still subject to the effects of randomness. Given enough time, an experienced trader can expect to suffer 10 or more losses in a row. It is not a matter of if, but when.
When asked about realistic trading expectations, Thomas Stridsman, author of "Trading Systems That Work" and "Trading Systems and Money Management", had this to say:
"What is more important than how large your winning trade is when you win, or how many winners or losers you might have in a row. It is the mathematical expectancy of your strategy. That is, how much are you likely to win on average on all trades, winners and losers combined, and how much this value is likely to fluctuate in the short term.
"For an even further increase of peace of mind, you also probably are better off looking at profitable time periods, such as weeks or months, rather than profitable trades. Simply looking at a win/loss ratio is not enough."
If you think that doing either more or fewer trades would be a more successful strategy, think again. Kaufman demonstrates in "Short Course" that the more trades the trader performs, the lower his or her profits over the long haul. On average, longer-term trades generate more eventual profits. However, if you're a long-term trader, your risk of getting one or more big losses is increased, since you are in the markets longer and therefore exposed to risk for more prolonged periods. Bottom line, no matter what your trading style or preferred time in a trade, you will lose and lose big on more than one occasion.
Kaufman has the data to back up his claims. He has performed thousands of tests on various systems, and some of these are presented in Short Course. In one example, he tested Microsoft for 10 years ending Jan 2001 and covering a period when the stock moved from a pre-split price of $1.04 to a high of $60 in Dec 1999. It should be pretty easy to beat the odds following that kind of trend, right?
Using an 80-day moving average during the period to generate buys and sells the system, trading both long and short positions, generated a total of 88 trades. Of these, only 36 trades - or 41% - were profitable. And Kaufman comments in the book that "[t]hat's actually good for a trend system, which often has closer to 35% good trades".
These depressing stats are echoed by John Murphy in his book, "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets". Murphy says that professional traders, on average, experience losing trades about 60% of the time. In other words, they win only about 40% of the trades they enter. Given the grim facts, rookie traders may wonder how it's possible to make money in the markets. All of this begs the question: how can a system that has more losing than winning trades be profitable?
…While Winning the War
Let's look at an example of a system that does very well in a relatively short period, but falters over time. I ran a number of tests to determine if using commercial commodity traders' net positions - published each week by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports - was useful in trading an index. Tests were performed for the period of 1999 through 2003 using the S&P 500 Index futures and results were impressive.
Using a five- and 22-week simple moving average of commercial traders' positions, buying each time the five-period SMA crossed above the 22-period SMA and selling when it crossed below, the strategy earned 804 points. Contrast this to a loss of 245 points for a buy-and-hold strategy during the four-and-a-half-year period between Feb 12, 1999, and Oct 3, 2003. If we assume the trader traded one S&P 500 e-mini contract with a margin (risk) of $1,800, the profit would have been more than $40,000 after commissions. Out of a total of 12 trades, seven were profitable - that's a win/loss ratio of 58%.
The same tests were performed for the 13-year period from Feb 16, 1990, through Oct 31, 2003. Results were far less impressive. The system returned a total of 555 points, whereas a buy and hold over the same period returned 696 points. Our win/loss ratio also dropped: only 26 out of 55 trades were profitable, giving a ratio of 47%. Not only was the system not nearly as impressive over the longer period, but it was also significantly outperformed by a simple buy-and-hold strategy.
The moral of the story? Whenever you see claims that systems generate outstanding returns over short periods, remember that such statistics are worthless without looking at the bigger picture. Even worse, these claims often create unrealistic expectations in the mind of the new trader who takes them at face value.
Stridsman explains how to compare a trading system to a buy-and-hold strategy:
"The trick here is to analyze the system for its effective time spent in the market. For example, if a system is in the market only 50 percent of the time, you can put on twice as many contracts each time the system enters into a trade, as compared to what you would have in a buy-and-hold situation over the entire period to achieve the same amount of contract hours spent in the market. Looked at this way, in the 50 percent case the profits made per contract traded should be at least half that of the constant-contract, buy-and-hold strategy. Proper money management also allows you to increase the number of contracts traded as your equity grows, whereas a buy-and-hold strategy doesn't give you the same flexibility."
When you approach trading with the assumption that there will be more losing than winning trades, your primary focus shifts dramatically. Instead of spending inordinate amounts of time buying, testing and discarding systems that fail to meet your unrealistic expectations of 70 to 80% (or more) wins to losses, you can concentrate your efforts in the more important but far less sexy area of money management.
On average, traders spend at least 10 times more time and effort on seeking the magic formula for trading than on learning to manage the trade. This is obvious if you compare the number of trading signal systems available to the number of money management systems available. The same is true for best-selling trading books. When was the last time you saw a best-seller that concentrated on money management? This may explain why so few traders actually graduate to the point of being consistent in the trading game.
Conclusion
Since a large number of professional traders experience more losing than winning trades, learning how to lose is essential to making it as a trader. Furthermore, an effective money management program is absolutely necessary to a trader's survival and long-term profitability. A key part of any money management program is having an effective trading plan and sticking to it. (For more on constructing a trading plan, see the article Ten Steps to Building a Winning Trading Plan.)
Consider what veteran trader and market teacher Larry Williams said in a 2004 e-mail: "Since losses are an integral part of this game, a strategy is as essential as the proper attitude. All jobs have good days and bad days so deal with it. There are no 100% certain trades."
Looking for a system that will win 80% of the time or more is a fool's game. Those who adopt a hope-for-the-best-but-plan-for-the-worst mentality and concentrate their efforts on far more important issues will set themselves up for long-term success. It is the difference between taking a short-term view to win a few battles at any cost and marshaling resources in the battles you lose to ultimately win the war.
If you're serious about getting a handle on this topic, check out the books by Kaufman discussed in this article. You will also find Thomas Stridsman's book, "Trading Systems and Money Management", a worthwhile read for its detailed discussion of win/loss ratios, realistic expectations for various trading systems, and money management strategies. Consider it a reading assignment with potentially big dividends!
Losing Battles …
Every trader worth his or her salt knows that trading against the trend is not a good idea. So it seems logical that the best trading systems would be those that follow the trend: when the trend is going up, take long trades only, and when it's going down, it's time to go short. That being said, you'd think that trend-following systems would have the best win/loss ratios, right?
In his book, "A Short Course in Technical Trading", Perry Kaufman offers some sobering statistics on the matter. According to this veteran program-trading expert and author, "You can expect 6 or 7 out of 10 trend trades to be losses, some small some a little larger." And yet, Kaufman says that trend-following systems are some of the best trading systems around. In other words, trend-following systems won't yield huge profits, but they'll still do better than most systems.
It will probably come as a shock to those who have spent countless hours searching for a winning system, but Kaufman makes it absolutely clear in his book that having realistic win/loss expectations means expecting losses - lots of them. He states, "As a trend trader, you should expect mostly small losses, some small profits, and a few large profits."
If it gets across this point alone,"A Short Course" is a worthwhile addition to your library. Kaufman provides an example to demonstrate a phenomenon traders in the game for the long haul have come to learn the hard way:
"In a normal distribution of 1,000 coin tosses, half of them would be single runs of heads or tails. Half of those, 25%, would be a sequence of either two heads or two tails. Half of the remaining, 12.5%, would be sequences of three in a row, and so on. Therefore, in 1,000 coin tosses, you can expect only one run of 10 heads or tails in a row."
In other words, in 1,000 trading days - or about four years - a trader could expect to experience 10 wins (or losses) in a row only once, that is, if trading were as random (normally distributed) as a series of coin tosses, which it is not.
So, your odds of winning with trend-following systems are better than your odds of winning a series of random coin tosses, but there are other challenges to having more winning than losing trades. Although markets are not random, you can still expect short-term random movements within a trend, major reversals at the end of each trend, and the time lag most trend-following systems experience when getting into and out of the market.
As a result, thanks to lags and unexpected short-term random movements, you are still subject to the effects of randomness. Given enough time, an experienced trader can expect to suffer 10 or more losses in a row. It is not a matter of if, but when.
When asked about realistic trading expectations, Thomas Stridsman, author of "Trading Systems That Work" and "Trading Systems and Money Management", had this to say:
"What is more important than how large your winning trade is when you win, or how many winners or losers you might have in a row. It is the mathematical expectancy of your strategy. That is, how much are you likely to win on average on all trades, winners and losers combined, and how much this value is likely to fluctuate in the short term.
"For an even further increase of peace of mind, you also probably are better off looking at profitable time periods, such as weeks or months, rather than profitable trades. Simply looking at a win/loss ratio is not enough."
If you think that doing either more or fewer trades would be a more successful strategy, think again. Kaufman demonstrates in "Short Course" that the more trades the trader performs, the lower his or her profits over the long haul. On average, longer-term trades generate more eventual profits. However, if you're a long-term trader, your risk of getting one or more big losses is increased, since you are in the markets longer and therefore exposed to risk for more prolonged periods. Bottom line, no matter what your trading style or preferred time in a trade, you will lose and lose big on more than one occasion.
Kaufman has the data to back up his claims. He has performed thousands of tests on various systems, and some of these are presented in Short Course. In one example, he tested Microsoft for 10 years ending Jan 2001 and covering a period when the stock moved from a pre-split price of $1.04 to a high of $60 in Dec 1999. It should be pretty easy to beat the odds following that kind of trend, right?
Using an 80-day moving average during the period to generate buys and sells the system, trading both long and short positions, generated a total of 88 trades. Of these, only 36 trades - or 41% - were profitable. And Kaufman comments in the book that "[t]hat's actually good for a trend system, which often has closer to 35% good trades".
These depressing stats are echoed by John Murphy in his book, "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets". Murphy says that professional traders, on average, experience losing trades about 60% of the time. In other words, they win only about 40% of the trades they enter. Given the grim facts, rookie traders may wonder how it's possible to make money in the markets. All of this begs the question: how can a system that has more losing than winning trades be profitable?
…While Winning the War
Let's look at an example of a system that does very well in a relatively short period, but falters over time. I ran a number of tests to determine if using commercial commodity traders' net positions - published each week by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports - was useful in trading an index. Tests were performed for the period of 1999 through 2003 using the S&P 500 Index futures and results were impressive.
Using a five- and 22-week simple moving average of commercial traders' positions, buying each time the five-period SMA crossed above the 22-period SMA and selling when it crossed below, the strategy earned 804 points. Contrast this to a loss of 245 points for a buy-and-hold strategy during the four-and-a-half-year period between Feb 12, 1999, and Oct 3, 2003. If we assume the trader traded one S&P 500 e-mini contract with a margin (risk) of $1,800, the profit would have been more than $40,000 after commissions. Out of a total of 12 trades, seven were profitable - that's a win/loss ratio of 58%.
The same tests were performed for the 13-year period from Feb 16, 1990, through Oct 31, 2003. Results were far less impressive. The system returned a total of 555 points, whereas a buy and hold over the same period returned 696 points. Our win/loss ratio also dropped: only 26 out of 55 trades were profitable, giving a ratio of 47%. Not only was the system not nearly as impressive over the longer period, but it was also significantly outperformed by a simple buy-and-hold strategy.
The moral of the story? Whenever you see claims that systems generate outstanding returns over short periods, remember that such statistics are worthless without looking at the bigger picture. Even worse, these claims often create unrealistic expectations in the mind of the new trader who takes them at face value.
Stridsman explains how to compare a trading system to a buy-and-hold strategy:
"The trick here is to analyze the system for its effective time spent in the market. For example, if a system is in the market only 50 percent of the time, you can put on twice as many contracts each time the system enters into a trade, as compared to what you would have in a buy-and-hold situation over the entire period to achieve the same amount of contract hours spent in the market. Looked at this way, in the 50 percent case the profits made per contract traded should be at least half that of the constant-contract, buy-and-hold strategy. Proper money management also allows you to increase the number of contracts traded as your equity grows, whereas a buy-and-hold strategy doesn't give you the same flexibility."
When you approach trading with the assumption that there will be more losing than winning trades, your primary focus shifts dramatically. Instead of spending inordinate amounts of time buying, testing and discarding systems that fail to meet your unrealistic expectations of 70 to 80% (or more) wins to losses, you can concentrate your efforts in the more important but far less sexy area of money management.
On average, traders spend at least 10 times more time and effort on seeking the magic formula for trading than on learning to manage the trade. This is obvious if you compare the number of trading signal systems available to the number of money management systems available. The same is true for best-selling trading books. When was the last time you saw a best-seller that concentrated on money management? This may explain why so few traders actually graduate to the point of being consistent in the trading game.
Conclusion
Since a large number of professional traders experience more losing than winning trades, learning how to lose is essential to making it as a trader. Furthermore, an effective money management program is absolutely necessary to a trader's survival and long-term profitability. A key part of any money management program is having an effective trading plan and sticking to it. (For more on constructing a trading plan, see the article Ten Steps to Building a Winning Trading Plan.)
Consider what veteran trader and market teacher Larry Williams said in a 2004 e-mail: "Since losses are an integral part of this game, a strategy is as essential as the proper attitude. All jobs have good days and bad days so deal with it. There are no 100% certain trades."
Looking for a system that will win 80% of the time or more is a fool's game. Those who adopt a hope-for-the-best-but-plan-for-the-worst mentality and concentrate their efforts on far more important issues will set themselves up for long-term success. It is the difference between taking a short-term view to win a few battles at any cost and marshaling resources in the battles you lose to ultimately win the war.
If you're serious about getting a handle on this topic, check out the books by Kaufman discussed in this article. You will also find Thomas Stridsman's book, "Trading Systems and Money Management", a worthwhile read for its detailed discussion of win/loss ratios, realistic expectations for various trading systems, and money management strategies. Consider it a reading assignment with potentially big dividends!
Sunday, December 11, 2011
怎样才算慢活？
城市人匆忙上班，吃饭狼吞虎咽，如厕草草了事，就连休息都得争分夺秒。如此节奏混乱的生活是养生大忌，英国《每日邮报》载文指出，平日生活节奏会直接影响健康，应学会快慢、张弛、紧疏有度。中国《生命时报》采访数位医学专家，总结出呼吸、喝水、吃饭和走路等行为的最佳速度，从今天起，不妨尝试着改变自己的生物钟。
呼吸
静下心来，对着手表，测一下自己的呼吸（一呼一吸为一个周期），看看一分钟有多少次，一个周期多少秒？
一项研究显示，大多数人用3.3秒呼吸一次。你知道吗？古人一次呼吸是6.4秒。
伦敦理疗师菲奥娜·特鲁普说，健康成年人每分钟呼吸10至14次，如果每分钟呼吸次数超过20次，氧气不能被释放到肌肉及器官，就会出现指尖和嘴唇刺痛、心悸、疲劳、注意力无法集中、肌肉痉挛及肠易激综合征等问题。
只要这些症状出现，表明你平时是通过口腔，而不是用鼻子来完成呼吸。一般来说，压力大、颈痛、背痛、受到情感打击或手术等，都会增加呼吸急促几率。伦敦大学医院呼吸医学教授史蒂芬·斯皮罗博士说，虽然呼吸太快不会导致长期健康问题，但容易引发肺病，或者哮喘和支气管炎。
最佳节奏：一呼一吸用6.4秒。
研究发现，书法家、太极拳师以及性情温和的人，呼吸节奏是缓慢而深沉的，他们的平均寿命普遍较长。一般来说，山区的长寿者多于平原，主要原因是，高山的低氧空气能降低血氧浓度，减缓新陈代谢的速度。
中国中医科学院教授杨力建议，想长寿不妨学学古人深长而缓慢的呼吸形式。正确的呼吸方法要做到四个字：深、长、匀、细，这期间注意用鼻而不要用嘴呼吸。
初练阶段，晚间睡觉时平躺，全身放松。呼气时略屏气，呼气时间是吸气的3至4倍。呼完之后不要马上吸气，应紧接着稍稍屏气，然后再吸气。就这样“吸—呼—屏”循环，直至不知不觉地入睡。接下来，不只睡前，白天、夜里、工作、走路、坐车……潜意识里都得要求自己按上述方法做。
喝水
喝水是件再简单不过的事，但一杯水“咕嘟咕嘟”下肚的同时，心脏也承受着不小的负担。
因为喝水太快，水分会快速进入血液，使血液变稀、血量增加，尤其对老人或心脏不好的人来说，会出现胸闷、气短等症状，严重的可能导致心肌梗死。
北京医院心内科主任医师沈瑾提醒，喝水时应特别注意喝的频率和量。特别是洗完热水澡后，身体受热，血管扩张，血流量增加，心脏跳动也会比平时快些，不应大量喝水或喝得太快。
运动过后，也不宜一次性大量饮水。因为这时胃肠血管处于收缩状态，需要一个恢复过程，立即大量饮水会导致肚子发胀，影响消化。
不仅是喝水，喝酒也不能太快，否则身体无法及时处理，容易导致饮酒过量。伦敦大学初级护理教授保罗·华莱士说，肝脏每小时只能处理大约1杯酒的酒精量，一次醉酒就足以导致肝脏损伤，一旦酒精中毒，还会影响大脑功能。
最佳节奏：跟着心跳喝。
合理的喝水方式是，每次100至150毫升，间隔为20至30分钟。喝下一口水的时间，最好与心脏跳动一下的时间接近，这样才能使心脏有规律、平稳地吸收进入体内的水分。
运动后最好过几分钟，等心脏跳动稍微平稳后，再着小口小口地喝些温开水。
上班族每工作半个小时就要休息一会儿，并喝100毫升左右的水；室外工作者最好随身携带水杯，稍觉口渴就喝；老人则应在家定个喝水时间表，不妨上个闹钟，至少每小时提醒一次，每次喝几口水。
吃饭
狼吞虎咽地吃完一餐饭后，是否意识到：癌细胞正躲过唾液这第一道健康卫士，趁虚而入。
据统计，40%的癌症与食物中的亚硝酸类化合物、化学合成剂、防腐剂等致癌物质有关。唾液在阻击这些坏物质的过程中，起了不可忽视的作用，咀嚼可促进唾液分泌。
一项统计显示，现代人吃饭太快，已从40多年前每餐咀嚼900至1100次、用时20至30分钟，下降为目前的每餐咀嚼500至600次、用时5至10分钟。
此外，日本大阪大学研究发现，吃饭速度快会导致肥胖几率翻倍。美国南卡罗莱纳医科大学研究人员指出，如果咀嚼不细，粗糙的食物会增加胃的负担，增加胃食管反流病的危险。
最佳节奏：一口饭嚼20次。
中国疾病预防控制中心营养与食品安全所副所长马冠生建议，吃饭一定要细嚼慢咽，最好用15至20分钟吃早餐，半小时左右吃中晚餐；老年人则应咀嚼25至50次，才能给饮食中枢足够的兴奋时间，帮助食物消化。
试验显示，两个人同吃一种食物，一人细嚼，另一人粗嚼，结果细嚼的人比粗嚼的人多吸收蛋白质13%、脂肪12%、纤维素43%。
细嚼慢咽可增加唾液的分泌量，让它与食物充分混合，增进营养的消化吸收。
此外，吃饭慢还能解毒。高温油炸、烧烤食物中产生的致癌物苯并芘等，能在人体唾液酶的作用下被部分分解。
苹果等水果若吃超过15分钟，其中的有机酸和果酸就有足够时间杀死口腔细菌，有效清洁口腔。
走路
生活中不是所有事情都要按下“慢进键”，有些动作快点反而更好。美国匹兹堡大学研究人员对3万4000名65岁以上老人的研究发现，结合个人病史、吸烟和血压等情况，走路速度大体可以预测老年人的剩余寿命。
一般来说，步伐80厘米／秒的老人能达到70至75岁，步伐超过1米／秒的老人寿命可超过75岁。
北京体育大学运动人体科学学院教授陆一帆认为，走路速度和身体机能是相辅相成的。一般来说，走得快的人，心脏、肌肉、骨骼等各方面机能都比常人强，平衡能力、协调能力也比较好，对疾病的抵抗能力和对意外事故的防范能力自然更佳；反过来说，长期有规律地快走，也能提高人体各方面生理机能，如减缓老年人的血管老化，让他们显得更年轻。
最佳节奏：每分钟120步。
寿命是“走”出来的。随着年龄的增长，人的走路频率会逐步下降，步幅也会变小。年轻人一般7至10分钟走1公里，步幅在0.75米左右，四五十岁以上的人走1公里就需要10分钟以上了。
陆一帆提醒，老年人尽管步履蹒跚，但在保证安全的基础上，还是应该尽量把步子放快一点。日本东京保健体育教授波多野则建议，快速步行时间一般要持续半小时左右，速度以每分钟120步左右为宜。步行时，身体要略微向前倾斜，双臂自然下垂，协调地前后摆动于身体两侧。全身着力于脚掌前部，步态要均匀、沉稳而有节奏，走到微微出汗即可。
呼吸
静下心来，对着手表，测一下自己的呼吸（一呼一吸为一个周期），看看一分钟有多少次，一个周期多少秒？
一项研究显示，大多数人用3.3秒呼吸一次。你知道吗？古人一次呼吸是6.4秒。
伦敦理疗师菲奥娜·特鲁普说，健康成年人每分钟呼吸10至14次，如果每分钟呼吸次数超过20次，氧气不能被释放到肌肉及器官，就会出现指尖和嘴唇刺痛、心悸、疲劳、注意力无法集中、肌肉痉挛及肠易激综合征等问题。
只要这些症状出现，表明你平时是通过口腔，而不是用鼻子来完成呼吸。一般来说，压力大、颈痛、背痛、受到情感打击或手术等，都会增加呼吸急促几率。伦敦大学医院呼吸医学教授史蒂芬·斯皮罗博士说，虽然呼吸太快不会导致长期健康问题，但容易引发肺病，或者哮喘和支气管炎。
最佳节奏：一呼一吸用6.4秒。
研究发现，书法家、太极拳师以及性情温和的人，呼吸节奏是缓慢而深沉的，他们的平均寿命普遍较长。一般来说，山区的长寿者多于平原，主要原因是，高山的低氧空气能降低血氧浓度，减缓新陈代谢的速度。
中国中医科学院教授杨力建议，想长寿不妨学学古人深长而缓慢的呼吸形式。正确的呼吸方法要做到四个字：深、长、匀、细，这期间注意用鼻而不要用嘴呼吸。
初练阶段，晚间睡觉时平躺，全身放松。呼气时略屏气，呼气时间是吸气的3至4倍。呼完之后不要马上吸气，应紧接着稍稍屏气，然后再吸气。就这样“吸—呼—屏”循环，直至不知不觉地入睡。接下来，不只睡前，白天、夜里、工作、走路、坐车……潜意识里都得要求自己按上述方法做。
喝水
喝水是件再简单不过的事，但一杯水“咕嘟咕嘟”下肚的同时，心脏也承受着不小的负担。
因为喝水太快，水分会快速进入血液，使血液变稀、血量增加，尤其对老人或心脏不好的人来说，会出现胸闷、气短等症状，严重的可能导致心肌梗死。
北京医院心内科主任医师沈瑾提醒，喝水时应特别注意喝的频率和量。特别是洗完热水澡后，身体受热，血管扩张，血流量增加，心脏跳动也会比平时快些，不应大量喝水或喝得太快。
运动过后，也不宜一次性大量饮水。因为这时胃肠血管处于收缩状态，需要一个恢复过程，立即大量饮水会导致肚子发胀，影响消化。
不仅是喝水，喝酒也不能太快，否则身体无法及时处理，容易导致饮酒过量。伦敦大学初级护理教授保罗·华莱士说，肝脏每小时只能处理大约1杯酒的酒精量，一次醉酒就足以导致肝脏损伤，一旦酒精中毒，还会影响大脑功能。
最佳节奏：跟着心跳喝。
合理的喝水方式是，每次100至150毫升，间隔为20至30分钟。喝下一口水的时间，最好与心脏跳动一下的时间接近，这样才能使心脏有规律、平稳地吸收进入体内的水分。
运动后最好过几分钟，等心脏跳动稍微平稳后，再着小口小口地喝些温开水。
上班族每工作半个小时就要休息一会儿，并喝100毫升左右的水；室外工作者最好随身携带水杯，稍觉口渴就喝；老人则应在家定个喝水时间表，不妨上个闹钟，至少每小时提醒一次，每次喝几口水。
吃饭
狼吞虎咽地吃完一餐饭后，是否意识到：癌细胞正躲过唾液这第一道健康卫士，趁虚而入。
据统计，40%的癌症与食物中的亚硝酸类化合物、化学合成剂、防腐剂等致癌物质有关。唾液在阻击这些坏物质的过程中，起了不可忽视的作用，咀嚼可促进唾液分泌。
一项统计显示，现代人吃饭太快，已从40多年前每餐咀嚼900至1100次、用时20至30分钟，下降为目前的每餐咀嚼500至600次、用时5至10分钟。
此外，日本大阪大学研究发现，吃饭速度快会导致肥胖几率翻倍。美国南卡罗莱纳医科大学研究人员指出，如果咀嚼不细，粗糙的食物会增加胃的负担，增加胃食管反流病的危险。
最佳节奏：一口饭嚼20次。
中国疾病预防控制中心营养与食品安全所副所长马冠生建议，吃饭一定要细嚼慢咽，最好用15至20分钟吃早餐，半小时左右吃中晚餐；老年人则应咀嚼25至50次，才能给饮食中枢足够的兴奋时间，帮助食物消化。
试验显示，两个人同吃一种食物，一人细嚼，另一人粗嚼，结果细嚼的人比粗嚼的人多吸收蛋白质13%、脂肪12%、纤维素43%。
细嚼慢咽可增加唾液的分泌量，让它与食物充分混合，增进营养的消化吸收。
此外，吃饭慢还能解毒。高温油炸、烧烤食物中产生的致癌物苯并芘等，能在人体唾液酶的作用下被部分分解。
苹果等水果若吃超过15分钟，其中的有机酸和果酸就有足够时间杀死口腔细菌，有效清洁口腔。
走路
生活中不是所有事情都要按下“慢进键”，有些动作快点反而更好。美国匹兹堡大学研究人员对3万4000名65岁以上老人的研究发现，结合个人病史、吸烟和血压等情况，走路速度大体可以预测老年人的剩余寿命。
一般来说，步伐80厘米／秒的老人能达到70至75岁，步伐超过1米／秒的老人寿命可超过75岁。
北京体育大学运动人体科学学院教授陆一帆认为，走路速度和身体机能是相辅相成的。一般来说，走得快的人，心脏、肌肉、骨骼等各方面机能都比常人强，平衡能力、协调能力也比较好，对疾病的抵抗能力和对意外事故的防范能力自然更佳；反过来说，长期有规律地快走，也能提高人体各方面生理机能，如减缓老年人的血管老化，让他们显得更年轻。
最佳节奏：每分钟120步。
寿命是“走”出来的。随着年龄的增长，人的走路频率会逐步下降，步幅也会变小。年轻人一般7至10分钟走1公里，步幅在0.75米左右，四五十岁以上的人走1公里就需要10分钟以上了。
陆一帆提醒，老年人尽管步履蹒跚，但在保证安全的基础上，还是应该尽量把步子放快一点。日本东京保健体育教授波多野则建议，快速步行时间一般要持续半小时左右，速度以每分钟120步左右为宜。步行时，身体要略微向前倾斜，双臂自然下垂，协调地前后摆动于身体两侧。全身着力于脚掌前部，步态要均匀、沉稳而有节奏，走到微微出汗即可。
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Using ratios to assess my financial position
The personal financial ratios aim to serve as warning signals and help detect any deterioration in my financial position. And if situation arises, I can take any necessary actions such as altering my expenditure pattern or evaluate my goals.
Here are some ratios to use which I have classified them accordingly:
1) Solvency
Purpose - indicates the probability that an individual will become bankrupt
Equation - net worth / total assets
Implication - the higher the ratio, the stronger is my financial position
Warning bell - negative = insolvent
2) Liquidity
Purpose - measures my ability to pay off the short-term liabilities
Equation - current (liquid) assets / current liabilities
Implication - the higher the ratio, the stronger is my current financial situation
Warning bell - lower than 1.0
3) Savings
Purpose - measures the proportion of my income saved in a year
Equation - cash surplus / total annual income
Implication - 40% of my net earned income which should translate to higher ratio
Warning bell - negative = over-spending (except for one-off, big-ticket items)
4) Debt Service
Purpose - measures my ability to service loan payment in a prompt and timely fashion
Equation - total annual cash loan payment / total annual income
Implication - the smaller the ratio, the better is my ability to service the loans
Warning bell - more than 0.4 = too highly leveraged
5) Gearing
Purpose - measures how much leverage I have undertaken to acquire my assets
Equation - long-term liabilities / total assets
Implication - the higher the ratio, the higher the probability of bankruptcy
Warning bell - current cash flow can't pay off monthly loan repayment
For myself, I use the ratios monthly when I consolidate my personal financial figures (of income, expenditure, cash budget etc.)
But I do make it a point as not to get too disappointed should one of the ratios fall below the benchmark due to specific circumstances. Otherwise, we will be living in a highly regulated personal system that literally adds more stress, just like a pressure-cooker.
My objective is to keep within the framework as much as I can while focusing on my financial targets. My achievements are documented when I exceed my expectation.
How about you? Did you try the ratios? If not, go on....take 15 minutes break and do a quick calculation. See the results personally.
You might also like:
Here are some ratios to use which I have classified them accordingly:
1) Solvency
Purpose - indicates the probability that an individual will become bankrupt
Equation - net worth / total assets
Implication - the higher the ratio, the stronger is my financial position
Warning bell - negative = insolvent
2) Liquidity
Purpose - measures my ability to pay off the short-term liabilities
Equation - current (liquid) assets / current liabilities
Implication - the higher the ratio, the stronger is my current financial situation
Warning bell - lower than 1.0
3) Savings
Purpose - measures the proportion of my income saved in a year
Equation - cash surplus / total annual income
Implication - 40% of my net earned income which should translate to higher ratio
Warning bell - negative = over-spending (except for one-off, big-ticket items)
4) Debt Service
Purpose - measures my ability to service loan payment in a prompt and timely fashion
Equation - total annual cash loan payment / total annual income
Implication - the smaller the ratio, the better is my ability to service the loans
Warning bell - more than 0.4 = too highly leveraged
5) Gearing
Purpose - measures how much leverage I have undertaken to acquire my assets
Equation - long-term liabilities / total assets
Implication - the higher the ratio, the higher the probability of bankruptcy
Warning bell - current cash flow can't pay off monthly loan repayment
For myself, I use the ratios monthly when I consolidate my personal financial figures (of income, expenditure, cash budget etc.)
But I do make it a point as not to get too disappointed should one of the ratios fall below the benchmark due to specific circumstances. Otherwise, we will be living in a highly regulated personal system that literally adds more stress, just like a pressure-cooker.
My objective is to keep within the framework as much as I can while focusing on my financial targets. My achievements are documented when I exceed my expectation.
How about you? Did you try the ratios? If not, go on....take 15 minutes break and do a quick calculation. See the results personally.
You might also like:
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Acid Reflux Diet Plan
If you have suffered from acid reflux, you know how much of a difference your diet plan can make in reducing your symptoms. The acid reflux diet offered below reveals a lot of great tips that you can use to reduce your heartburn.
I have split up this acid reflux diet into two parts: foods you will want to avoid as well as foods to add to your diet to reduce your heartburn.
Acid Reflux Diet - Foods to Avoid
Alcohol
Chocolate
Carbonated Beverages
Mints (both Peppermint and Spearmint - can include things like toothpaste - so keep an eye out for mints)
Citrus (though some people report lemons actually reduce heartburn)
Tomatoes (includes things like salsas and spaghetti/marinara sauce count here!)
Spicy foods (any sort of hot food)
Coffee (including decaf)
High-fat foods
Dairy (of all sorts; casein (a type of milk protein) and lactose can cause a lot of people digestive distress)
To reiterate the previous point, a lot of the foods on this acid reflux diet plan are individual; some people for example may tolerate tomatoes but be unable to have mints, or vice versa. You will have to try this out for yourself to see which particular foods are problematic for you.
While these foods are a good starting place, you can get more in-depth acid reflux diet plan in Heartburn No More, which you can check out by clicking here.
Acid Reflux Diet - Foods Good for Reflux
While some foods you will definitely want to avoid on your acid reflux diet plan, there are foods that may help you out. The benefits of the foods listed here include helping improve digestion as well as reducing the damage acid reflux inflicts.
With that said, here is a list of foods you can include on your acid reflux diet plan:
Papaya - Papaya contains papain, which is an enzyme that helps digest protein (also called a protease). This can reduce reflux and be especially beneficial for people who use acid-reducers.
Pineapple - Pineapple is rich in bromelain, another protease which benefits digestion in the same way as papaya.
Protein - any protein-rich food can increase the pressure exerted by the lower esophageal sphincter (the muscle band which helps seal off the stomach), stopping heartburn cold. Protein rich meals for this reason are very good for those suffering from reflux.
Good sources of protein include lean animal meats as well as even protein powders or other supplements. Sometimes fatty meats can help contribute to heartburn, so stick to leaner sources of protein on your acid reflux diet, such as chicken breasts and fish.
Fiber - People who eat high fiber diets have been shown to suffer less esophageal damage than their low-fiber counterparts. Many foods are rich in fiber, but some good sources include non-starchy vegetables and fruits (particularly berries).
By adding some tropical fruits like papaya and pineapple to a protein and fiber-rich diet can really help reduce heartburn as well as improve your overall health!
I have split up this acid reflux diet into two parts: foods you will want to avoid as well as foods to add to your diet to reduce your heartburn.
Acid Reflux Diet - Foods to Avoid
Alcohol
Chocolate
Carbonated Beverages
Mints (both Peppermint and Spearmint - can include things like toothpaste - so keep an eye out for mints)
Citrus (though some people report lemons actually reduce heartburn)
Tomatoes (includes things like salsas and spaghetti/marinara sauce count here!)
Spicy foods (any sort of hot food)
Coffee (including decaf)
High-fat foods
Dairy (of all sorts; casein (a type of milk protein) and lactose can cause a lot of people digestive distress)
To reiterate the previous point, a lot of the foods on this acid reflux diet plan are individual; some people for example may tolerate tomatoes but be unable to have mints, or vice versa. You will have to try this out for yourself to see which particular foods are problematic for you.
While these foods are a good starting place, you can get more in-depth acid reflux diet plan in Heartburn No More, which you can check out by clicking here.
Acid Reflux Diet - Foods Good for Reflux
While some foods you will definitely want to avoid on your acid reflux diet plan, there are foods that may help you out. The benefits of the foods listed here include helping improve digestion as well as reducing the damage acid reflux inflicts.
With that said, here is a list of foods you can include on your acid reflux diet plan:
Papaya - Papaya contains papain, which is an enzyme that helps digest protein (also called a protease). This can reduce reflux and be especially beneficial for people who use acid-reducers.
Pineapple - Pineapple is rich in bromelain, another protease which benefits digestion in the same way as papaya.
Protein - any protein-rich food can increase the pressure exerted by the lower esophageal sphincter (the muscle band which helps seal off the stomach), stopping heartburn cold. Protein rich meals for this reason are very good for those suffering from reflux.
Good sources of protein include lean animal meats as well as even protein powders or other supplements. Sometimes fatty meats can help contribute to heartburn, so stick to leaner sources of protein on your acid reflux diet, such as chicken breasts and fish.
Fiber - People who eat high fiber diets have been shown to suffer less esophageal damage than their low-fiber counterparts. Many foods are rich in fiber, but some good sources include non-starchy vegetables and fruits (particularly berries).
By adding some tropical fruits like papaya and pineapple to a protein and fiber-rich diet can really help reduce heartburn as well as improve your overall health!
Acid Reflux Diet and Breakfast
With the frequency that people have reflux problems through the night while they are sleeping, chances are they are waking up with heartburn. And in that case, they are more likely to go eat antacids for breakfast, than they are food that is going to make them feel worse.
However, breakfast is also the most important meal of the day. Breakfast helps stabilize your blood sugar levels after sleeping, and provides energy to start the day. It has also been shown that people who skip breakfast will eat more throughout the day. And what is one of the biggest problems for acid reflux and heartburn – eating fewer and larger meals, as that is shown to cause and/or make your problems worse. Deleting breakfast from your acid reflux diet is not a heartburn remedy.
Acid Reflux And Life Style
Preventing acid reflux and heartburn is going to entail making lifestyle changes. You eat breakfast, and then what happens? That overnight heartburn that you may have already had, coupled with the food that you just ate for breakfast [you just couldn’t resist ‘wolfing’ down that Egg McMuffin while you were driving] get together and give you more reflux and worse heartburn. Start your day with more energy, not hardly; you are starting your day in pain, and just want to go turn around and go home. But instead, there goes another round of antacids to try to keep you going.
How is that for breakfast and an acid reflux diet – acid reflux trigger foods ‘washed’ down with antacids to try and get rid of the heartburn pain. Lunch and dinner tend to be easier meals for heartburn sufferers. You have a wider range of food choices that are more appealing later in the day than they are for breakfast.
And you also aren’t in such a rush, giving you more time to prepare a good meal – and not having to eat it so fast, which of course is one of the heartburn don’ts.
Yes, acid reflux diet and breakfast is quite a problem, because so many of the breakfast food choices cause heartburn. Your fried eggs, with toast and butter, and orange juice and coffee – or that rush through the fast food restaurant, are of the worst foods that can be eaten. These can be expected to cause heartburn, certainly negating the benefits that eating breakfast are supposed to give you.
Breakfast Food Choices For Acid Reflux
So what are you going to do – you need to eat breakfast, but you aren’t going to do so if it is only going to make you feel worse. To begin with, how about getting up 15 minutes earlier so you aren’t in such a rush and fast food becomes your only breakfast alternative. And then, how about if you quit brain washing yourself into thinking that you need caffeine to get going? I remember my old routine, get up and skip breakfast except for 2-3 cups of coffee, have a diet coke at my desk, and then eat tums throughout the morning – I have chipped teeth from tums.
There are many acid reflux diet food choices for breakfast that don’t take much time to prepare, and that can actually help to reduce reflux and heartburn instead of causing it. And you can adapt to some changes in food choices that will help you even more – you really don’t need to eat that last piece of cold pizza for breakfast to keep it from going to waste.
Good food choices will include whole-grains, fruits and vegetables, and protein – just like any well balance healthy meal. In fact, that is one of the major benefits of an acid reflux diet, besides helping prevent or getting rid of heartburn, it is also a diet that promotes good health.
Whole grain breakfast food choices can be found in oatmeal, whole grain cereals, or whole grain breads. These are important for your acid reflux diet. They have fiber which makes them easier to digest, they don’t require as much acid during digestion, and actually they break down during digestion in a way that can absorb excess acid.
Additionally, whole grains include the antioxidant selenium, which has been shown to help protect the cell lining in the esophagus.
Fruits and vegetables are great for breakfast – what could be better than starting the day with an apple, or eating some fruit on your whole grain cereal. Just remember to stay away from the citrus fruits or juices, and especially no tomato juice as it is very highly acidic. Drink natural apple or grape juice as something that helps reduce acid. And if you can eat pizza and drink coke for breakfast, then you sure could get used to eating some broccoli – or how about some steamed broccoli with some egg whites.
Protein is an important food choice. It makes you feel more full and thus can help prevent overeating. And protein is the food source that helps build and repair muscles – this could include strengthening the muscles associated with your esophagus. As in all acid reflux diets, make sure that your proteins are low in fat content, because fat takes longer to digest and needs more acid to do so, thus increasing the likelihood of reflux heart burn. This means skim milk instead of whole milk, egg whites instead of the whole egg – and no more of that bacon or the fatty meats and fried foods in those breakfast sandwiches.
Breakfast And Lifestyle Changes
My lifestyle has changed the last few years; I was gaining weight as I was getting older, and I had heartburn that became acid reflux disease. Besides making some very big acid reflux diet changes, it now includes going to the gym in the morning before starting work. So, breakfast is very important to me after working out, but I also lose some extra time that I could have had for eating.
I eat a banana on the way to the gym, which helps settle my stomach. And then for breakfast I want a lot of protein, and to be sure that I have a relatively high protein to carbohydrate ratio; I want energy and not a spike in my blood sugar level. I usually drink a vanilla protein powder shake, and eat a cup of Greek yogurt [it is low fat and has extra protein], and an apple – delicious.
I feel very good throughout the morning, and with no more coffee and diet cokes to ‘help’ me through – if I want something else to eat, I have another apple. Breakfast is very important to our health, and you have lots of food choices that not only won’t cause heartburn, but can actually help control it. But like in the case of all acid reflux diet choices, there are tradeoffs and lifestyle changes to be made to get rid of heartburn, and to get health benefits from what we eat –vs- eating in a way that makes heartburn become worse, and even have it lead to acid reflux disease.
However, breakfast is also the most important meal of the day. Breakfast helps stabilize your blood sugar levels after sleeping, and provides energy to start the day. It has also been shown that people who skip breakfast will eat more throughout the day. And what is one of the biggest problems for acid reflux and heartburn – eating fewer and larger meals, as that is shown to cause and/or make your problems worse. Deleting breakfast from your acid reflux diet is not a heartburn remedy.
Acid Reflux And Life Style
Preventing acid reflux and heartburn is going to entail making lifestyle changes. You eat breakfast, and then what happens? That overnight heartburn that you may have already had, coupled with the food that you just ate for breakfast [you just couldn’t resist ‘wolfing’ down that Egg McMuffin while you were driving] get together and give you more reflux and worse heartburn. Start your day with more energy, not hardly; you are starting your day in pain, and just want to go turn around and go home. But instead, there goes another round of antacids to try to keep you going.
How is that for breakfast and an acid reflux diet – acid reflux trigger foods ‘washed’ down with antacids to try and get rid of the heartburn pain. Lunch and dinner tend to be easier meals for heartburn sufferers. You have a wider range of food choices that are more appealing later in the day than they are for breakfast.
And you also aren’t in such a rush, giving you more time to prepare a good meal – and not having to eat it so fast, which of course is one of the heartburn don’ts.
Yes, acid reflux diet and breakfast is quite a problem, because so many of the breakfast food choices cause heartburn. Your fried eggs, with toast and butter, and orange juice and coffee – or that rush through the fast food restaurant, are of the worst foods that can be eaten. These can be expected to cause heartburn, certainly negating the benefits that eating breakfast are supposed to give you.
Breakfast Food Choices For Acid Reflux
So what are you going to do – you need to eat breakfast, but you aren’t going to do so if it is only going to make you feel worse. To begin with, how about getting up 15 minutes earlier so you aren’t in such a rush and fast food becomes your only breakfast alternative. And then, how about if you quit brain washing yourself into thinking that you need caffeine to get going? I remember my old routine, get up and skip breakfast except for 2-3 cups of coffee, have a diet coke at my desk, and then eat tums throughout the morning – I have chipped teeth from tums.
There are many acid reflux diet food choices for breakfast that don’t take much time to prepare, and that can actually help to reduce reflux and heartburn instead of causing it. And you can adapt to some changes in food choices that will help you even more – you really don’t need to eat that last piece of cold pizza for breakfast to keep it from going to waste.
Good food choices will include whole-grains, fruits and vegetables, and protein – just like any well balance healthy meal. In fact, that is one of the major benefits of an acid reflux diet, besides helping prevent or getting rid of heartburn, it is also a diet that promotes good health.
Whole grain breakfast food choices can be found in oatmeal, whole grain cereals, or whole grain breads. These are important for your acid reflux diet. They have fiber which makes them easier to digest, they don’t require as much acid during digestion, and actually they break down during digestion in a way that can absorb excess acid.
Additionally, whole grains include the antioxidant selenium, which has been shown to help protect the cell lining in the esophagus.
Fruits and vegetables are great for breakfast – what could be better than starting the day with an apple, or eating some fruit on your whole grain cereal. Just remember to stay away from the citrus fruits or juices, and especially no tomato juice as it is very highly acidic. Drink natural apple or grape juice as something that helps reduce acid. And if you can eat pizza and drink coke for breakfast, then you sure could get used to eating some broccoli – or how about some steamed broccoli with some egg whites.
Protein is an important food choice. It makes you feel more full and thus can help prevent overeating. And protein is the food source that helps build and repair muscles – this could include strengthening the muscles associated with your esophagus. As in all acid reflux diets, make sure that your proteins are low in fat content, because fat takes longer to digest and needs more acid to do so, thus increasing the likelihood of reflux heart burn. This means skim milk instead of whole milk, egg whites instead of the whole egg – and no more of that bacon or the fatty meats and fried foods in those breakfast sandwiches.
Breakfast And Lifestyle Changes
My lifestyle has changed the last few years; I was gaining weight as I was getting older, and I had heartburn that became acid reflux disease. Besides making some very big acid reflux diet changes, it now includes going to the gym in the morning before starting work. So, breakfast is very important to me after working out, but I also lose some extra time that I could have had for eating.
I eat a banana on the way to the gym, which helps settle my stomach. And then for breakfast I want a lot of protein, and to be sure that I have a relatively high protein to carbohydrate ratio; I want energy and not a spike in my blood sugar level. I usually drink a vanilla protein powder shake, and eat a cup of Greek yogurt [it is low fat and has extra protein], and an apple – delicious.
I feel very good throughout the morning, and with no more coffee and diet cokes to ‘help’ me through – if I want something else to eat, I have another apple. Breakfast is very important to our health, and you have lots of food choices that not only won’t cause heartburn, but can actually help control it. But like in the case of all acid reflux diet choices, there are tradeoffs and lifestyle changes to be made to get rid of heartburn, and to get health benefits from what we eat –vs- eating in a way that makes heartburn become worse, and even have it lead to acid reflux disease.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Will Wednesday's 5% Surge Kick Off a Year-End Rally?
Wednesday's surge was impressive. A quick thumbnail technical analysis allows for only one conclusion: Stocks will rally further.
The Dow soared nearly 500 points, the S&P and Nasdaq finished up 4.2% and small caps led the charge with a 5.8% gain. The VIX is 27% lower today than on November 1.
Trading volume on the NYSE clocked in at 1.66 billion, over 60% above the 10-day average. Up volume accounted for 97% of that day's trading. Assuming that this rally has further to go seems like a slam-dunk.
But a little bit of perspective is never bad. We saw a similar price and volume surge on October 27 when the S&P pushed as high as 1,293, and the Dow as high as 12,284. NYSE trading volume that day was almost 40% above the 10-day average.
The October 27 explosion lifted 94.5% of stocks above their 10-day average while Wednesday's squirt propelled 93.6%, but (and that's a big but) stocks tumbled more than 10% following the October 27 performance (more about what that means in a moment).
High Probability Profits
When it comes to trading, it's all about identifying high probability entry or exit points. There are always new trading opportunities, but the best opportunities are those where all stars (indicators) are aligned for a profitable trade.
The three best indicators, in my humble opinion, are a composite of technicals (support/resistance levels, Fibonacci analysis, trend lines, patterns, buy/sell signals, etc.), sentiment and seasonality. A high probability trade sees all three indicators pointing in the same direction.
Along with a few minor setups, we've gotten two major high probability signals this year. A sell signal in May and a buy signal in October.
In April, the S&P was closing in on major technical resistance, investor sentiment was outright bullish (which is bearish from a contrarian point of view) and seasonality was turning bearish (sell in May and go away).
The April 15 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'A major secondary market top is forming. It would simplify our forecast if the S&P would be able to reach the ideal 1,369 - 1,382 target for a major secondary market top before the summer doldrums.' The S&P topped on May 2 at 1,371. The rest is history.
Exactly the opposite was true at the October lows. The September 23 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provided this outlook: 'From its May high at 1,370 to its eventual low, the S&P will likely have lost about 300 points (22%). This kind of move validates a counter trend rally. Any drop below 1,088 may mark the end of the 2011 bear market leg. Such a drop may be only on an intraday basis.'
The S&P exploded 20% from its 1,075 intraday low on October 4 to its 1,293 high on October 27.
It's A Bit Murky
Based on a number of technical indicators and patterns (such as the 2008 decline), stocks were supposed to decline thereafter. Sentiment was also bullish enough not to prevent any further declines.
Seasonality however didn't agree. Pre-election year strength and a seasonally strong November/December/early January pointed towards higher prices.
A developing triangle in November also could have led to a breakout to the up side, but it didn't. I stated in the November 18 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter that: 'Due to bullish November, December and early January seasonality, I would have preferred a bullish triangle breakout. This would have kept prices afloat for another few weeks, sparked further enthusiasm and ultimately aligned 'the stars' for a nasty January decline. Seasonality remains an issue, so we'll look to profit from lower prices but we'll be cautious and won't buck the trend if stocks decide to rally past important resistance levels.'
Courtesy of the Wednesday rally, we are above those resistance levels now and won't buck the up side trend.
But not bucking it doesn't mean we can't try to figure out what stocks will do next.
Short-Term Outlook
At the onset of the article I compared Wednesday's seemingly bullish spike with the October 27 spike, which turned out bearish (see chart below).
I don't want to make a big deal out of a sample size of one, but it will take some follow through buying to get excited about Wednesday's bounce, at least over the short-term.
The technical picture remains long and mid-term bearish even if we get enough buyers rushing in. Additionally, the bullish seasonality won't last too much longer and higher prices will turn sentiment bullish, which will be bearish for stocks.
Despite the possibility of higher prices, I believe that the next big profit opportunity will be to go short. The key is to get the right entry point and not prematurely swing the bat before the ball is thrown.
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