Stanley Kroll on Futures Trading Strategy was published in 1988 by Dow Jones-Irwin and is now available in .pdf form from Traders Press. Kroll was a legendary commodities trader in the 1960s and 70s. Apparently in the early 1970s he parlayed $18,000 of his own money into $1 million; he “retired” for five years in 1975 at the age of 40, subsequently returned to the markets, and died in 1999.
As you would expect, for today’s trader this book does not enter uncharted waters. But it serves as a reminder of time-tested principles that will always trump the latest and greatest systems. Kroll, a trend trader, was an admirer of Jesse Livermore and was particularly fond of his statement that “It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and lots of early bears in bear markets. . . . [But] they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.” (p. 137) Kroll relates an anecdote that speaks to this point (and to later behavioral studies on myopic loss aversion; see my post of October 21). Let me quote it in full:
"On the afternoon of January 28, 1987, some 5 1/2 months after the buy position [in cotton] was signaled [at 34.54], I received a near-cryptic phone call from a pharmacist in Rapid City, South Dakota. He and I had corresponded on occasion, and, if there ever was a rank beginner in futures trading, he was it. Anyway, he was so excited he could barely talk—but the gist of what I understood, after I managed to get him to communicate in normal English, was that his system just that morning had flashed a signal, at 54.83, to sell the cotton position. He had dumped the position and was totally undone at the realization that he had just scored over $20,000 profit on his two contracts. After further conversation, I was also undone when I learned that he had been unaware until that very day of the magnitude of his profit—which may have been the reason he sat with it for the full term of the move." (p. 163)
Every trader is looking for the outsized gain. But, says Kroll, we have no way of knowing when we initiate a position if it “will turn into the big one. Therefore, so long as we are trading in the direction of the major trend, we should premise that every position has the potential to be the megamove and play the market accordingly. And that means holding the position . . . until your stop, which you advance with the market, takes you out.” (pp. 162-63)
One of Kroll’s basic tenets is that a good technical trading system, one that can identify a market trend or the price objective of a particular move, is only half of what you need to succeed. The other half is a viable market strategy and tactics along with sound money management. In fact, he argued (what is perhaps a truism but one that always bears repeating) that “it is better to have a mediocre system and good money management than an excellent system and poor money management.” Kroll discusses stop placement, averaging up, and cutting losses. He concludes:
"My answer to the iconoclastic individual who seeks futures profits while violating most of the proven precepts of sound strategy and money management is to quote Damon Runyon. 'The race may not always go to the swift, nor the contest to the strong, but that’s the way you want to bet.' So, in your gardening, your poetry, your sculpture, or your cooking, be as uninhibited as you dare, break all the rules or invent a few of your own, and think of discipline as just another word in the dictionary. But, in your futures trading, play by the rules in a disciplined and pragmatic manner, trying to keep in step with the trend, which really is your friend." (p. 168)
Richard J. Dennis wrote on the back flap: “This is the best book I’ve ever read on futures trading.” High praise indeed from another legend.
Consistent gains
The first thing that impressed me was how much Kroll's Dragons felt like and reminded me of Jessie Livermore's How to Trade in Stocks.
Memoirs
I knew for sure this would be something special because Stanley was not trying to make a textbook or have somebody else write it for him. Unlike many books written for no one in particular, Kroll assumes readers know how to read charts and has had some experience speculating. This book is inner Kroll. Dragons supplements Reminiscences.
Risks
Not written to praise the market or pay homage to his experiments with technical analysis. Dragons covers the essence of speculating whether it is securities that require the greatest risk margin like stocks, minimum margins like futures, or practically no margins at all like calendar spreads.
Strategies
It is clear that Kroll dabbled with fundamentals. He got over that. Then he may have gone a little to far with technical analysis. But it is clear that he honed in on his true contribution to trading with Dragons. Stanley finely figured it out. He had to draw on none other than Sun Tzu to pull it all together with a little help from Partridge. Traders should be more concerned with an overall profitable operation than catching tops and bottoms. The most expensive loss effecting success, is the loss of confidence.
Mort
Dragons is light on Livermore the trader, heavy on Sun Tzu the philosopher. It is not so strange that many people expound on a philosophy as life itself draws to a close. Do you suppose this acceptance precedes death?
Forces
The long shot pays better, but the favorite is the way to bet. Presuppose that every with-the-trend trade will be the big one. You maintain your potential for profit when you hold on, build positions, and sell your losers. Buying strength and selling weakness applies to portfolio management, right thru selection of markets to the time differences between contracts. Buy what's going up, sell or even short what's falling.
Oscillator/ Indicators
Stochastics – entry
Parabolic – pyramid and stop
Macd – trend confirmation
Bollinger Bands – volatility
Moving Averages
Kroll suggests that moving average crossover systems, combined with the slope of the moving average are good enough to confirm a trend. Stanley reinforces a theme that has made has been taught before by Joe Ross in his excellent "Trading Spreads," and by Wells Wilder in "New Concepts," by Jake Bernstein probably in "Seasonality," and spread guru Jerry Toepke of "Moore Research." It does not matter what technical studies that you use, as long as you are comfortable and use them regularity.
Control losses and allow profits to run
Limit risk – percent of exchange margin
Avoid overtrading – churning or too large a position relative to capital
Cut your losses – advance your stops
Parabolic
The most difficult part of developing a trend following system is fine-tuning your stops. Using a percentage of exchange margins has the advantage of being related to the volatility, risk, and the profit potential of each market. Another strategy is to advance your stop after each week. You have to develop a method to reenter lost positions as well as build your position in a trending market.
Spreads
In the early 80's Stanley told me that he did not specifically trade spreads, but sometimes they showed up to advantage requiring fewer margins. Kroll notes that Spreads advantages include higher profits. Here Kroll shows spread charts from the mid eighties and has a whole chapter on spreads in Dragons. Kroll suggests traders watch spread differences as an accurate indicator for managing positions.
Spread Orders
Stanley does not mention market on close spread orders (MOC), preferring instead to leg in and out. But he does suggest giving your broker the spread order. Stanley details the three reasons that you might want to place a spread, switch, or straddles order.
Entering a new trade,
Shifting forward (rollover)
Spreading a losing position
Wisdom
Kroll's tactics remains about the same as he marketed a decade before with Wells Wilder. You can see this in his long-term winners, short-term losers philosophy.
Tactics
Kroll sets up for a major move entering with-the- trend positions, and try's to stay with them as long as possible. Diversification with the addition of China stock indexes. Price based entry signals, no longer optimized. No long side bias. Stop placement that allows time & space for long-term trades to develop. Kroll may get in late on an entry signal that is showing a loss, but when he gets stopped out prematurely he would get right back on board a day or two later, when the trend resumed.
Just as Stanley likes to quote Jessie, following are some quotes from Kroll's Dragons:
I am a long-term trader on my winning positions and a short-term trader on my adverse ones.
Scores of brilliant or lucky market operators have had the heady and envious sensation of closing a position with a million-plus-dollar profit. I too, on a few occasions, have had the good fortune to be included in this exclusive group.
The traders who make money on a consistent basis are the long-term position traders.
One of the traits of successful operators is to close out losing positions and stay with, and even add to, the winning ones.
In two related markets, you should buy the strongest acting one and sell the weakest acting one.
The most important tactic for consistent and successful speculation is to control losses.
A long-term holder speculating with the trend should not try to capture small counter-trend profits by trying to get in and out.
I might lose my position, and with it the certainty of making a big killing with the big move. It is the big swing that makes the big money for you.
If you exit a trending position, regardless of the reason, and on the close of the next two days the trend is still in the original direction, you should get back on board.
The most damaging loss, and the one to be avoided at all costs, is the loss of confidence and belief in your ability to trade with consistent success – you must avoid that loss at all costs.
Saturday, December 29, 2012
斯坦利·克罗 英文名：Stanley Kroll
斯坦利·克罗（1934年3月5日－1999）(Stanley Kroll)是美国著名的期货专家，1960年进入全球金融中心华尔街。他在华尔街的33年之中，一直在期货市场上从事商品期货交易，积累了大量的经验。在20世纪70年代初的商品期货暴涨行情中，用1.8万美元获利100万美元。岁月流逝，财富积累，斯坦利·克罗带着他在华尔街聚集的几百万美元，远离这一充满竞争的市场，漫游世界，独享人生。5年的游历中，斯坦利·克罗潜心研究经济理论及金融、投资理论，并先后出版了5本专著，其中最著名的是《克罗谈投资策略》。
1981年之后他重返华尔街，并逐渐把目光移向亚洲，因为他相信21世纪将是亚洲的金融世纪。20世纪90年代他来到了香港投资公司，1998年到北京担任投资顾问。他认为亚洲的交易者具有成功的潜质，很有进取心，充满勇气，可能是世界上最好的交易者。然而他们也有需要克服的缺点：当市场反转时仍倾向于固执头寸，不肯止损。
如今的市场与克罗的盛年时期有所不同：新的金融工具不断涌现，逐渐成熟；计算机交易系统被广泛应用；市场出现各种各样的新理论和新技术。克罗宝刀不老，仍不断汲取新经验、新技术，努力使自己跟上市场的步伐，开始了他交易生涯的崭新阶段。
他对期货投资的成功经验首先强调的就是：期货市场就像在非洲的原始森林，最重要的是求生存。判断趋势错误时就立即砍仓出场。风险控制和约束才是期货投资成功的关键。参加期货交易的朋友必须时刻牢记：市场永远是对的!
他认为每个人都应当有自己的市场哲学或者投资策略，都应该有控制风险的工具或者理念。他这种能有效控制风险的工具或理念被人们称为墨菲法则。墨菲法则的核心意思则是：当你担心事情会朝着对你不利的方向发生时，结果往往很可能比你担心的还要糟糕。
克罗最著名的一句话：只有时刻惦记着损失，利润才可以照顾好他自己！克罗的这种理念在执行中主要依靠技术方法。他的座右铭就是：KISS(Keep It Simple，Stupid)—— 追求简洁。
投资策略及理论：赢利时是长线，亏损时就是短线。他应用技术操作的手段很多但十分简单，有时候简单到只用一根均线。
具体做法：追求长线趋势的投资，涨势买进跌势卖出。
对投资工具的看法：重阅长期图表(周、月)非常有用。对长期趋势的观察使克罗对市场活动有了一个更平衡全面的了解。
名言及观念
· 只有在市场展现强烈的趋势时才放手进场。
· 入市点：趋势翻转时；盘整突破时；大势反弹或回吐45%～55%处。
· 趋势分析正确时，金字塔加码。
· 钱是“坐”着赚回来的，不是靠操作赚来的，只有用客观的方法判断趋势翻转时才平仓。
. KISS——斯坦利技术分析的原则
很多人对斯坦利·克罗能捕捉到超级大行情相当佩服，但最关心的是斯坦利·克罗是用什么分析方法入市，斯坦利·克罗说，他主要是依靠技术分析法，研究大量的长期图表和季节性的周期，他的座右铭是“KISS“。这并非是他生性爱谈恋爱,KISS其实是“Keep It Simple,Stupid”的缩写，意思就是说：务求简单，简单到不必用大脑的地步，不必迷信复杂的技术分析法。斯坦利·克罗操作期货之所以那么成功，靠的就是这点。像古龙武侠小说里的李寻欢，简单直接且快而准的一刀封喉，比任何复杂的武功都有效，与此有异曲同工之妙。
美国期货大师斯坦利·克罗从上世纪60年代开始进入期货市场，经历了无数次惊心动魄的战役，在70年代初的商品期货暴涨行情中，用1.8万美元获利了100万美元。1994年克罗来广州讲课，我有机会亲身感受这位华尔街的投资大师的风采，笔者至今仍然保存着当时听课的手稿。克罗在谈到他的成功入市方法时强调：
1.只有在市场展现强烈的趋势时才放手进场。
2.入市点：a.趋势翻转时；b.盘整突破时；c.大势反弹或回吐45%—55%处。
3.趋势分析正确时，金字塔加码。
4.钱是“坐”着赚回来的，不是靠操作赚来的，只有用客观的方法判断趋势翻转时才平仓。
斯坦利·克罗认为，中长线的投资者使用的应该是长期的分析工具——周线图和月线图，以及季节性研究，还有一套侧重于长期的良好技术分析系统，如移动平均线，以及必备的耐性和纪律。
受克罗的启发，在经过自己摸索和实战的检验后，笔者终于形成了自己的长线大师盈利模式——“火车轨”交易系统。“火车轨”系统曾在1997年4月28日发出了卖出信号，笔者指导客户在3200元/吨以上做空大豆11月份合约。5月份一波空头行情终于启动，形成了一个典型的“头肩顶”形态，在突破颈线后价格从3280元/吨下跌到3000，在一个月的时间获利超过了100％。
但是在进入6月份后，行情出现了连续3个星期在50点左右的幅度盘整。再好的心情也让市场这种“平淡”折磨得受不了。忍受不住市场的“平淡”，我将持仓平掉了3/4。但是在我平仓的当天晚上，我进行了一个长时间的反复思考：要不要坚守我操作系统的空头信号？要不要坚守持仓？要不要重新进场？要不要坚守原则？
我又重新翻出斯丹利·克罗的《期货交易策略》，研究他的糖、小麦、咖啡等战例，我对自己说：“一定要坚守原则，在“火车轨”交易系统还没有发出平仓信号前，一定不能动摇，我要向克罗学习，按照赢家的方法操作。于是，第二天我又在同一价格重新进场，继续持仓空头并加码。没有多久行情再次下跌。但最可惜的是，我的几个学生和客户没有经历我一样的认真思考和研究，在暴跌前一天全部将和我一起建立的空头部位全部平仓，没有享受到后面的一倍的利润。
在1997年7月28日我全部平仓，获利330％。这次的经历，更加坚定了我在市场获利的信心。
“长线盈利模式”的技术派主要使用趋势型系统，它是根据设计者的数据统计，捕捉价格的转折点，然后假定趋势会继续，并按趋势方向建仓交易，如MACD、SAR、移动平均线、DMI等。趋势型系统特点如下：
1.“鱼身理论”。不能在最低价处买入，也不能在最高价处卖出，放弃行情的前、后一段的约20％—30％利润，利润主要来源于捕捉一波大行情的中间70％—80％部分。
2.灵敏度。捕捉行情转折点技能的灵敏度因投资者参数、时间周期不同而有所不同。灵敏度强的指标对趋势反转反应迅速，但是假信号也多，灵敏度低的对趋势反转反应慢，假信号也少，放弃的前后部分的利润也多。
3.持仓长。趋势型指标要求投资者的持仓时间都比较长，一般都有2—3个月甚至更长，所以要求投资者要有一套与趋势型指标相适应的心理控制方法和生活、交易模式。
4.利润丰厚。趋势型的优点是有大行情时能产生丰厚的利润。
5.连续亏损。趋势型缺点也是在盘整行情时产生连续亏损，使投资者不能接受。所以使用趋势型指标的难度不在于寻找捕捉趋势的方法，而是在于要有一套完善的趋势确认和过滤原则，才能回避风险。
1981年之后他重返华尔街，并逐渐把目光移向亚洲，因为他相信21世纪将是亚洲的金融世纪。20世纪90年代他来到了香港投资公司，1998年到北京担任投资顾问。他认为亚洲的交易者具有成功的潜质，很有进取心，充满勇气，可能是世界上最好的交易者。然而他们也有需要克服的缺点：当市场反转时仍倾向于固执头寸，不肯止损。
如今的市场与克罗的盛年时期有所不同：新的金融工具不断涌现，逐渐成熟；计算机交易系统被广泛应用；市场出现各种各样的新理论和新技术。克罗宝刀不老，仍不断汲取新经验、新技术，努力使自己跟上市场的步伐，开始了他交易生涯的崭新阶段。
他对期货投资的成功经验首先强调的就是：期货市场就像在非洲的原始森林，最重要的是求生存。判断趋势错误时就立即砍仓出场。风险控制和约束才是期货投资成功的关键。参加期货交易的朋友必须时刻牢记：市场永远是对的!
他认为每个人都应当有自己的市场哲学或者投资策略，都应该有控制风险的工具或者理念。他这种能有效控制风险的工具或理念被人们称为墨菲法则。墨菲法则的核心意思则是：当你担心事情会朝着对你不利的方向发生时，结果往往很可能比你担心的还要糟糕。
克罗最著名的一句话：只有时刻惦记着损失，利润才可以照顾好他自己！克罗的这种理念在执行中主要依靠技术方法。他的座右铭就是：KISS(Keep It Simple，Stupid)—— 追求简洁。
投资策略及理论：赢利时是长线，亏损时就是短线。他应用技术操作的手段很多但十分简单，有时候简单到只用一根均线。
具体做法：追求长线趋势的投资，涨势买进跌势卖出。
对投资工具的看法：重阅长期图表(周、月)非常有用。对长期趋势的观察使克罗对市场活动有了一个更平衡全面的了解。
名言及观念
· 只有在市场展现强烈的趋势时才放手进场。
· 入市点：趋势翻转时；盘整突破时；大势反弹或回吐45%～55%处。
· 趋势分析正确时，金字塔加码。
· 钱是“坐”着赚回来的，不是靠操作赚来的，只有用客观的方法判断趋势翻转时才平仓。
. KISS——斯坦利技术分析的原则
很多人对斯坦利·克罗能捕捉到超级大行情相当佩服，但最关心的是斯坦利·克罗是用什么分析方法入市，斯坦利·克罗说，他主要是依靠技术分析法，研究大量的长期图表和季节性的周期，他的座右铭是“KISS“。这并非是他生性爱谈恋爱,KISS其实是“Keep It Simple,Stupid”的缩写，意思就是说：务求简单，简单到不必用大脑的地步，不必迷信复杂的技术分析法。斯坦利·克罗操作期货之所以那么成功，靠的就是这点。像古龙武侠小说里的李寻欢，简单直接且快而准的一刀封喉，比任何复杂的武功都有效，与此有异曲同工之妙。
1.只有在市场展现强烈的趋势时才放手进场。
2.入市点：a.趋势翻转时；b.盘整突破时；c.大势反弹或回吐45%—55%处。
3.趋势分析正确时，金字塔加码。
4.钱是“坐”着赚回来的，不是靠操作赚来的，只有用客观的方法判断趋势翻转时才平仓。
斯坦利·克罗认为，中长线的投资者使用的应该是长期的分析工具——周线图和月线图，以及季节性研究，还有一套侧重于长期的良好技术分析系统，如移动平均线，以及必备的耐性和纪律。
受克罗的启发，在经过自己摸索和实战的检验后，笔者终于形成了自己的长线大师盈利模式——“火车轨”交易系统。“火车轨”系统曾在1997年4月28日发出了卖出信号，笔者指导客户在3200元/吨以上做空大豆11月份合约。5月份一波空头行情终于启动，形成了一个典型的“头肩顶”形态，在突破颈线后价格从3280元/吨下跌到3000，在一个月的时间获利超过了100％。
但是在进入6月份后，行情出现了连续3个星期在50点左右的幅度盘整。再好的心情也让市场这种“平淡”折磨得受不了。忍受不住市场的“平淡”，我将持仓平掉了3/4。但是在我平仓的当天晚上，我进行了一个长时间的反复思考：要不要坚守我操作系统的空头信号？要不要坚守持仓？要不要重新进场？要不要坚守原则？
我又重新翻出斯丹利·克罗的《期货交易策略》，研究他的糖、小麦、咖啡等战例，我对自己说：“一定要坚守原则，在“火车轨”交易系统还没有发出平仓信号前，一定不能动摇，我要向克罗学习，按照赢家的方法操作。于是，第二天我又在同一价格重新进场，继续持仓空头并加码。没有多久行情再次下跌。但最可惜的是，我的几个学生和客户没有经历我一样的认真思考和研究，在暴跌前一天全部将和我一起建立的空头部位全部平仓，没有享受到后面的一倍的利润。
在1997年7月28日我全部平仓，获利330％。这次的经历，更加坚定了我在市场获利的信心。
“长线盈利模式”的技术派主要使用趋势型系统，它是根据设计者的数据统计，捕捉价格的转折点，然后假定趋势会继续，并按趋势方向建仓交易，如MACD、SAR、移动平均线、DMI等。趋势型系统特点如下：
1.“鱼身理论”。不能在最低价处买入，也不能在最高价处卖出，放弃行情的前、后一段的约20％—30％利润，利润主要来源于捕捉一波大行情的中间70％—80％部分。
2.灵敏度。捕捉行情转折点技能的灵敏度因投资者参数、时间周期不同而有所不同。灵敏度强的指标对趋势反转反应迅速，但是假信号也多，灵敏度低的对趋势反转反应慢，假信号也少，放弃的前后部分的利润也多。
3.持仓长。趋势型指标要求投资者的持仓时间都比较长，一般都有2—3个月甚至更长，所以要求投资者要有一套与趋势型指标相适应的心理控制方法和生活、交易模式。
4.利润丰厚。趋势型的优点是有大行情时能产生丰厚的利润。
5.连续亏损。趋势型缺点也是在盘整行情时产生连续亏损，使投资者不能接受。所以使用趋势型指标的难度不在于寻找捕捉趋势的方法，而是在于要有一套完善的趋势确认和过滤原则，才能回避风险。
The Wisdom of Stanley Kroll
Stanley Kroll'sThe Professional Commodity Trader looking for a quote about taking stops. I remember something to the effect that if you are going to stop out it is always better to do it sooner rather than later. I couldn't find it but I ran across his rules for trade entry and exit.
I. On Initiating a Position
Trade in the direction of the major tend, against the minor trend. For example if the major trend is clearly up, trade the market from the long side, or not at all, buying when:
a. the minor trend has turned down, and
b. prices are "digging" into support, and
c. the market has made a 35-50 percent retracement of the previous up leg.
If the major trend is clearly down trade the market from the short side, or not at all, selling when:
a. the minor trend has turned up, and
b. prices have advanced into overhead resistance, and
c. the market has made a 35-50 percent retracement of the previous down leg.
II. On Closing Out a Position
a. At a profit. Liquidate one-third of the position at a logical (chart) price objective into overhead resistance (for a long position) or into underlying support (for a short position).*
b. At a loss. There are, basically, three approaches:
Enter and arbitrary "money" stop-loss; e.g., 40-50 percent of the margin deposit.
Enter a chart-point stop-loss; i.e., to close out the position when the major trend reverses against your position - not when the minor trend reverses (that's just the point where you should be initiating the position, not closing it out).
Maintain the position until you are convinced that you are wrong (the major trend has reversed against you) and then close out on the first technical correction.**
* Following this first liquidation, be alert to reinstate the position, or even 1.5 times the liquidated position, on a subsequent technical correction, as outlined in the above discussion, "On Initiating the Position."
I. On Initiating a Position
Trade in the direction of the major tend, against the minor trend. For example if the major trend is clearly up, trade the market from the long side, or not at all, buying when:
a. the minor trend has turned down, and
b. prices are "digging" into support, and
c. the market has made a 35-50 percent retracement of the previous up leg.
If the major trend is clearly down trade the market from the short side, or not at all, selling when:
a. the minor trend has turned up, and
b. prices have advanced into overhead resistance, and
c. the market has made a 35-50 percent retracement of the previous down leg.
II. On Closing Out a Position
a. At a profit. Liquidate one-third of the position at a logical (chart) price objective into overhead resistance (for a long position) or into underlying support (for a short position).*
b. At a loss. There are, basically, three approaches:
Enter and arbitrary "money" stop-loss; e.g., 40-50 percent of the margin deposit.
Enter a chart-point stop-loss; i.e., to close out the position when the major trend reverses against your position - not when the minor trend reverses (that's just the point where you should be initiating the position, not closing it out).
Maintain the position until you are convinced that you are wrong (the major trend has reversed against you) and then close out on the first technical correction.**
* Following this first liquidation, be alert to reinstate the position, or even 1.5 times the liquidated position, on a subsequent technical correction, as outlined in the above discussion, "On Initiating the Position."
2013货币战争新元年 QE无上限新兴市场早晚遭殃
这场危机以美国开始，欧债为中场节目，最终可能以新兴市场泡沫破裂作为结局。当哪一天QE退出提上日程，受伤最深的不是美国、欧洲或日本，而是新兴市场。”
货币战争新元年
对于亚洲等新兴经济体而言，无休止的量化宽松政策可能带来诸多风险，资产泡沫、通胀乃至金融市场的稳定。《纽约时报》日前撰文指出，西方大量印钞所导致的热钱涌入，为亚洲经济前景蒙上阴影，这本身就足以成为2013年威胁全球经济增长的一大不确定因素。
在“世界末日”前两天，女总裁拉加德领导的国际货币基金组织(IMF)罕见地闹起了内讧。
IMF下属的独立评估办公室本月19日发布了一份报告，炮轰IMF一直以来就知道无端指责新兴经济体过多累积外汇储备，而不去认真调查促使各国储备黄金和外汇的原因，特别是各国对于日益庞大的国际资本流动(俗称“热钱”)的担忧。这让拉加德和其他IMF高管人士非常恼火。
IMF的内讧绝非独立事件，尤其是在当前的特定时期。
QE“无上限”
以美联储为代表，今年，欧元区、英国、日本和美国在内的发达经济体几乎无一例外祭出了量化宽松措施，而且大多都不止一次。
在美国、日本，当局更是想出了“无上限”的QE。本月，美联储推出了所谓的QE4，而面临政治压力的日本央行干脆搞起了“QEX”!
展望2013年，QE竞赛似乎还看不到头。在最近发布的《2013年世界经济形势与展望》中，联合国的经济专家们警告说，世界经济仍处在另一次大衰退的边缘，欧元危机激化、美国财政悬崖以及中国经济“硬着陆”等风险中的任何一个，都有可能导致全球经济萧条，并以1%至3%的速度衰退。
可以预见，2013年依然会是一个流动性极度宽松的年份。汇丰全球首席经济学家斯蒂芬·金恩指出，新一轮的全球量化宽松，正在威胁到金融稳定。汇丰特别提醒亚洲经济体注意日本政策的外溢效应。主张激进货币政策的安倍晋三即将成为日本新首相，明年日本央行可能被迫实施更高的通胀目标，进一步加大宽松力度。
货币战争新元年
对于亚洲等新兴经济体而言，无休止的量化宽松政策可能带来诸多风险，资产泡沫、通胀乃至金融市场的稳定。《纽约时报》日前撰文指出，西方大量印钞所导致的热钱涌入，为亚洲经济前景蒙上阴影，这本身就足以成为2013年威胁全球经济增长的一大不确定因素。
在“世界末日”前两天，女总裁拉加德领导的国际货币基金组织(IMF)罕见地闹起了内讧。
IMF下属的独立评估办公室本月19日发布了一份报告，炮轰IMF一直以来就知道无端指责新兴经济体过多累积外汇储备，而不去认真调查促使各国储备黄金和外汇的原因，特别是各国对于日益庞大的国际资本流动(俗称“热钱”)的担忧。这让拉加德和其他IMF高管人士非常恼火。
IMF的内讧绝非独立事件，尤其是在当前的特定时期。
QE“无上限”
以美联储为代表，今年，欧元区、英国、日本和美国在内的发达经济体几乎无一例外祭出了量化宽松措施，而且大多都不止一次。
在美国、日本，当局更是想出了“无上限”的QE。本月，美联储推出了所谓的QE4，而面临政治压力的日本央行干脆搞起了“QEX”!
展望2013年，QE竞赛似乎还看不到头。在最近发布的《2013年世界经济形势与展望》中，联合国的经济专家们警告说，世界经济仍处在另一次大衰退的边缘，欧元危机激化、美国财政悬崖以及中国经济“硬着陆”等风险中的任何一个，都有可能导致全球经济萧条，并以1%至3%的速度衰退。
可以预见，2013年依然会是一个流动性极度宽松的年份。汇丰全球首席经济学家斯蒂芬·金恩指出，新一轮的全球量化宽松，正在威胁到金融稳定。汇丰特别提醒亚洲经济体注意日本政策的外溢效应。主张激进货币政策的安倍晋三即将成为日本新首相，明年日本央行可能被迫实施更高的通胀目标，进一步加大宽松力度。
疲软日元将推动美元避险
日本新任首相安倍晋三周三(12月26日)表示，他所领导的新一任政府将追求大胆的货币政策、灵活的财政政策和增长策略以鼓励私人投资。美元兑日元跳开至85.21，目前报85.67。市场将造成大量资金涌入其他国家（特别市美国和澳洲），短期美元因财政悬崖情绪未表现的明显，一旦激发美元避险特征，美元的上行动能将开始加速。虽然日本的量化宽松增加，亚洲各国将面临同样的后尘，各国2013年为了保卫各国出口，将有望出现更多的量化政策。
美国总统奥巴马赢得连任后曾表示，有信心在圣诞节就财政问题达成协议，最终圣诞未解决，短暂的提前假期归来能让股市快速的上行波动，表明了市场对待财政悬崖的解决将打压美元。美国税收的变动也将引起基金的分配的变动，市场交易将短暂清淡，波动有望加大。
欧元兑美元：
上行大型日线实体K线阻力1.3237，因欧元整体动能已经完全跌破，短暂的回调都是空单的准备。下行阻力1.3160，一旦跌破此阻力，欧元兑美元才有望1.3098,1.3098的跌破才可看1.2983.短期操作止损先维持设置1.3324，欧元兑美元的第一区间为1.3098---1.3237.空单只能以1.2983为目标。
美元兑日元：
周分析：受新一届日本政府将推动，日本央行出台更有力的货币宽松举措情绪加速了日元的空头，也支撑了美元兑日元触及五年多高位。但因量化宽松不及市场预期，市场日元空头锁住盈利，加之美元避险性的出现，也将延续出日元的避险性，美元兑日元短暂将面临细微的震荡。第一上行趋势阻力84.57，下行阻力83.20,83.20为月线第一次突破趋势阻力。本月的最后一周将开始验证上行能否延续，验证位置将归功83.20，此位置能再次验证站稳，美元兑日元后期的上行看至92.17.未能站稳，美元兑日元有望回测80.23才能上行。短暂时间美元的强势出现，日元的避险性也出现，笔者认为：能归83.87附近，我们可以再次尝试美元兑日元的多单。短期将放弃空单操作，需要等待的是合适的位置做多。补充：静待86.23突破后回调才能进场。86.23为月线下行第一阻力，此时也将转移为上行第一测试关口，突破此位置维持92.17的目标。
美国总统奥巴马赢得连任后曾表示，有信心在圣诞节就财政问题达成协议，最终圣诞未解决，短暂的提前假期归来能让股市快速的上行波动，表明了市场对待财政悬崖的解决将打压美元。美国税收的变动也将引起基金的分配的变动，市场交易将短暂清淡，波动有望加大。
欧元兑美元：
上行大型日线实体K线阻力1.3237，因欧元整体动能已经完全跌破，短暂的回调都是空单的准备。下行阻力1.3160，一旦跌破此阻力，欧元兑美元才有望1.3098,1.3098的跌破才可看1.2983.短期操作止损先维持设置1.3324，欧元兑美元的第一区间为1.3098---1.3237.空单只能以1.2983为目标。
美元兑日元：
周分析：受新一届日本政府将推动，日本央行出台更有力的货币宽松举措情绪加速了日元的空头，也支撑了美元兑日元触及五年多高位。但因量化宽松不及市场预期，市场日元空头锁住盈利，加之美元避险性的出现，也将延续出日元的避险性，美元兑日元短暂将面临细微的震荡。第一上行趋势阻力84.57，下行阻力83.20,83.20为月线第一次突破趋势阻力。本月的最后一周将开始验证上行能否延续，验证位置将归功83.20，此位置能再次验证站稳，美元兑日元后期的上行看至92.17.未能站稳，美元兑日元有望回测80.23才能上行。短暂时间美元的强势出现，日元的避险性也出现，笔者认为：能归83.87附近，我们可以再次尝试美元兑日元的多单。短期将放弃空单操作，需要等待的是合适的位置做多。补充：静待86.23突破后回调才能进场。86.23为月线下行第一阻力，此时也将转移为上行第一测试关口，突破此位置维持92.17的目标。
當美國不再進口石油時……
想像一下，當美國人不再進口石油時，石油世界會怎麼樣？全球資金流向會怎麼樣？美元走勢會怎麼樣？地緣政治又會怎麼樣？筆者認為，這是今後十年全球金融市場最大的三個故事之一，它對財富分佈、能源革命、交通運輸均帶來無遠弗屆的影響。
自從第二次世界大戰結束，美國便成為石油淨輸入國，其需要佔到全球石油貿易的1/4，美國在石油市場的地位，可謂舉足輕重。
然而，一場能源革命已在北美地區全面展開。美國的石油進口規模已經由高峰期的每天2000萬桶，縮減到不足1000萬桶。這個數位在今後幾年還會直線下降，國際能源組織預計美國將於2035年實現石油自給自足，筆者相信美國可能在2022-2025年即可成為石油淨出口國。
其實美國傳統的石油生產本身相對穩定，目前每天產量為810萬桶，2020年時預計升到1100萬桶，隨後緩慢回落。美國能源生產格局的改變，推動力來自非常規能源。2020年時，石油生產僅佔美國能源生產的22%，剩下78%來自天然氣、非常規石油和非常規天然氣。非常規石油和非常規天然氣更是從無到有，預計至2020年即可佔到美國整個能源生產中的六成。
頁岩氣生產異軍突起，是改變美國能源生產格局的第一個要素。非常規天然氣在北美地理環境下的開採技術已經成熟，量化生產逐漸展開，增長迅猛。而且由於價格的大幅度下降，這種新能源產品在美國的市場已被迅速打開。非常規天然氣以能量計算的產量已經超過石油，成為美國的最大能源供應源。
輕緊油（light tight oil）為首的非常規石油，是改變美國能源格局的另一個要素。輕緊油生產所用的橫向開採和水力壓裂技術，與頁岩氣的生產技術一脈相承。技術上的突破，令十年前一般人聞所未聞的能源可能在2020年超過常規石油，成為美國第二大能源供應源。
與此同時，節能技術和節能法規也會在幾年之後，顯著地壓縮美國對石油的需求。生物制油，是替代能源的另一個大的要素。商業技術一旦成熟，運輸與分銷管道一旦通順，變化往往比預期來得更猛、更快，其商業應用空間，往往比最初想像的更廣闊。
筆者預言，2020年時美國能源市場將是常規石油、非常規石油、常規天然氣、非常規天然氣四分天下的時代，其中非常規能源比重高過常規能源。美國2015年超越俄羅斯，成為世界最大的天然氣生產國；在2017年超越沙特阿拉伯，成為世界最大的石油生產國。美國將於2025年達成石油自給自足，隨後變為石油淨出口國。
如果美國不再需要進口石油，這對世界意味著甚麼？
首先，美元大幅升值。在美國的貿易逆差中，石油淨進口佔四成。石油能源供應由海外移向國內，必然為美國的貿易專案帶來結構性的拐點，目前困擾美國經濟的財政、貿易雙逆差中，至少有一半得到解決。美元因此進入中長期的升值軌道，並不令人驚訝。其實，在如今「比差」遊戲中，一旦一種貨幣出現基本面的改善，升值並非難事。
其次，財富再分配。美國石油進口需求的改變，會否導致油價大跌，尚屬未知數，這取決於新興市場（尤其是中國、印度）需求的增加。筆者傾向於相信油價會跌。中國石油需求仍會上升，不過增加最迅猛的時期可能已經過去。印度需求的故事，目前還是紙面上的預言。油價走軟，對中東的石油美元勢必構成衝擊，對於過度擴張的石油國家的公共開支更是威脅，財富由新興國家向美國轉移，資金流向也因此而改變。
再者，替代能源面臨重新洗牌。油價100美元之上，催生出太陽能、風能等許多替代能源。這些替代能源中相當一部分受技術、市場、管道等多方面因素的制約，商業性應用仍有困難，部分企業在政府補貼熱潮過後，甚至出現現金流壓力。如果油價跌到70美元/桶，多數替代能源將失去獨立生存的空間。
最後，地緣政治生態改觀。美國是中東的警察，為了自身的利益主導著那裏的衝突與和解。如今美國從中東進口的石油已經僅佔其總進口量的17%（中國佔43%），小過從加拿大的進口，五年後甚至可能低過10%（更多石油進口來自巴西）。中東在美國的戰略地位和國家利益中明顯下降。下一次美國在中東遭遇較大傷亡或挫折時，可能收縮其在當地的軍事存在。「十年後在霍爾木茲海峽巡弋的，應該是中國軍艦，而不是美國軍艦，」一位美國國務院高官如是說。
自從第二次世界大戰結束，美國便成為石油淨輸入國，其需要佔到全球石油貿易的1/4，美國在石油市場的地位，可謂舉足輕重。
然而，一場能源革命已在北美地區全面展開。美國的石油進口規模已經由高峰期的每天2000萬桶，縮減到不足1000萬桶。這個數位在今後幾年還會直線下降，國際能源組織預計美國將於2035年實現石油自給自足，筆者相信美國可能在2022-2025年即可成為石油淨出口國。
其實美國傳統的石油生產本身相對穩定，目前每天產量為810萬桶，2020年時預計升到1100萬桶，隨後緩慢回落。美國能源生產格局的改變，推動力來自非常規能源。2020年時，石油生產僅佔美國能源生產的22%，剩下78%來自天然氣、非常規石油和非常規天然氣。非常規石油和非常規天然氣更是從無到有，預計至2020年即可佔到美國整個能源生產中的六成。
頁岩氣生產異軍突起，是改變美國能源生產格局的第一個要素。非常規天然氣在北美地理環境下的開採技術已經成熟，量化生產逐漸展開，增長迅猛。而且由於價格的大幅度下降，這種新能源產品在美國的市場已被迅速打開。非常規天然氣以能量計算的產量已經超過石油，成為美國的最大能源供應源。
輕緊油（light tight oil）為首的非常規石油，是改變美國能源格局的另一個要素。輕緊油生產所用的橫向開採和水力壓裂技術，與頁岩氣的生產技術一脈相承。技術上的突破，令十年前一般人聞所未聞的能源可能在2020年超過常規石油，成為美國第二大能源供應源。
與此同時，節能技術和節能法規也會在幾年之後，顯著地壓縮美國對石油的需求。生物制油，是替代能源的另一個大的要素。商業技術一旦成熟，運輸與分銷管道一旦通順，變化往往比預期來得更猛、更快，其商業應用空間，往往比最初想像的更廣闊。
筆者預言，2020年時美國能源市場將是常規石油、非常規石油、常規天然氣、非常規天然氣四分天下的時代，其中非常規能源比重高過常規能源。美國2015年超越俄羅斯，成為世界最大的天然氣生產國；在2017年超越沙特阿拉伯，成為世界最大的石油生產國。美國將於2025年達成石油自給自足，隨後變為石油淨出口國。
如果美國不再需要進口石油，這對世界意味著甚麼？
首先，美元大幅升值。在美國的貿易逆差中，石油淨進口佔四成。石油能源供應由海外移向國內，必然為美國的貿易專案帶來結構性的拐點，目前困擾美國經濟的財政、貿易雙逆差中，至少有一半得到解決。美元因此進入中長期的升值軌道，並不令人驚訝。其實，在如今「比差」遊戲中，一旦一種貨幣出現基本面的改善，升值並非難事。
其次，財富再分配。美國石油進口需求的改變，會否導致油價大跌，尚屬未知數，這取決於新興市場（尤其是中國、印度）需求的增加。筆者傾向於相信油價會跌。中國石油需求仍會上升，不過增加最迅猛的時期可能已經過去。印度需求的故事，目前還是紙面上的預言。油價走軟，對中東的石油美元勢必構成衝擊，對於過度擴張的石油國家的公共開支更是威脅，財富由新興國家向美國轉移，資金流向也因此而改變。
再者，替代能源面臨重新洗牌。油價100美元之上，催生出太陽能、風能等許多替代能源。這些替代能源中相當一部分受技術、市場、管道等多方面因素的制約，商業性應用仍有困難，部分企業在政府補貼熱潮過後，甚至出現現金流壓力。如果油價跌到70美元/桶，多數替代能源將失去獨立生存的空間。
最後，地緣政治生態改觀。美國是中東的警察，為了自身的利益主導著那裏的衝突與和解。如今美國從中東進口的石油已經僅佔其總進口量的17%（中國佔43%），小過從加拿大的進口，五年後甚至可能低過10%（更多石油進口來自巴西）。中東在美國的戰略地位和國家利益中明顯下降。下一次美國在中東遭遇較大傷亡或挫折時，可能收縮其在當地的軍事存在。「十年後在霍爾木茲海峽巡弋的，應該是中國軍艦，而不是美國軍艦，」一位美國國務院高官如是說。
2013年汇市震荡将依旧 欧元无反转条件
2012年，在诸多不确定性因素冲击下，外汇市场表现出大幅震荡特征，美元指数呈现出了先扬后抑的走势。显然，今年第三季度欧洲央行推出的OMT计划和美联储推出QE3计划成为市场转折点，市场情绪从低迷转为亢奋。展望2013年，全球基本面仍然具有诸多的不确定性，市场情绪也将继续反复，外汇市场依然将保持震荡格局。
欧元不具备反转条件
首先，美强欧弱的经济格局在2013年不会改变。美国房地产市场的复苏以及奥巴马的连任将给美国经济持续复苏带来动力。而欧元区经济分化的局面依然将会拖累欧元区经济陷入衰退，而且德国经济的疲弱将使得欧元区经济面临更大的困难。
其次，虽然欧美经济体均要面临严峻的财政紧缩，但美国相对轻松。美国“财政悬崖”完全触发的概率很小，且其最后触发额可能在1820-3250亿美元之间，对美国经济的影响不大。而欧元区财政紧缩依然要延续，且欧元区边缘国家都仍处于经济增长低于融资成本的痛苦去杠杆化过程。
首先，美强欧弱的经济格局在2013年不会改变。美国房地产市场的复苏以及奥巴马的连任将给美国经济持续复苏带来动力。而欧元区经济分化的局面依然将会拖累欧元区经济陷入衰退，而且德国经济的疲弱将使得欧元区经济面临更大的困难。
其次，虽然欧美经济体均要面临严峻的财政紧缩，但美国相对轻松。美国“财政悬崖”完全触发的概率很小，且其最后触发额可能在1820-3250亿美元之间，对美国经济的影响不大。而欧元区财政紧缩依然要延续，且欧元区边缘国家都仍处于经济增长低于融资成本的痛苦去杠杆化过程。
再次，虽然欧美央行均需要依靠宽松货币政策对冲负面影响，但欧洲央行资产负债表膨胀规模可能会更大。欧洲央行货币政策的关注焦点是OMT计划能否顺利实施，一旦开始执行，欧洲央行资产负债表膨胀速度将再次明显增加。
最后，欧债危机仍将冲击市场。虽然受益于欧洲央行强力介入及外围国家推进体制改革，欧洲债务危机出现极端负面情景的可能性大幅降低，但是政治压力导致欧元区领导人始终采取“进两步、退一步”的危机解决方式，整个危机解决速度仍显缓慢。2013年德国大选可能使政治压力这一因素更加凸显，政治博弈导致的不确定性依旧。
日元进入贬值之旅
首先，疲弱经济将拖累日元。日元持续升值已经损害到日本制造业，日本对外出口份额持续下降。为保持产品竞争力，日本出口制造商持续迁移至海外，持续的企业外迁将可能导致日本出现常态化贸易赤字，支撑日元有利因素经常账户盈余将会进一步收窄。
其次，虽然加码量宽不一定能解决日本通缩问题，但会导致日元贬值预期增强。由于日本经济增长过于缓慢，产出缺口越来越大，产出缺口转化成了失业率增加和通货紧缩恶化。从目前日本政局来看，日本央行独立性将会受到侵蚀，在日本政府的干预下，治理通缩痼疾成为政治任务，日本央行快速扩大资产规模以达到通胀目标成为必然。
最后，日本版的“财政悬崖”风险也将拖累日元。日本近千万亿的债务已经不可持续。市场未来将更加关注日本财政风险，日本信用评级可能的下调将削弱日元资产的吸引力，增强日元贬值预期。
强势澳元面临挑战
首先，储备多元化以及机构投资品种狭窄化导致的资金流入局面很难持续。多年来的巨额外资流入已经使得澳大利亚债券市场达到饱和，只占全球经济2%的澳大利亚吸引了将近7%的全球债券投资，且外国人持有近80%的澳大利亚国债。另外，澳大利亚的资产价格也日益取决于持续的外资流入，在宽松政策环境下，吸引外资将变得困难。
其次，矿产业相关投资导致的资金流入也很难持续。澳经济增长几乎全部来自于采矿业热潮带来的资本支出，剔除矿产相关投资之后，澳经济表现并没有想像中那么好。近期采矿业投资高增速已经与大宗商品价格脱节，受大宗商品价格的左右，采矿业投资可能会迅速回落，矿业投资导致的相关资金流入下降风险很大。
最后，澳大利亚私人部门的债务水平一直未能得到修正。澳大利亚家庭债务水平显着高于美国家庭在去杠杆化前的债务水平，高企的家庭债务水平正支持着澳大利亚在某种程度上的房地产泡沫。一旦上述资金流入下降，甚至逆转，澳经济泡沫破灭风险就将出现。（中国证券报）
Historical Japanese Yen Rate (JPY USD)
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Tuesday, December 25, 2012
Volatility Likely to Pick Up in Early 2013
After reaching a 5 year low in volatility, a change may be underway. The return of risk into the broader system and the gradual return of investment capital into the regular investment arena are likely to send volatility upwards in the first 3 to 6 months of 2013, says John Kicklighter of DailyFX.
In the interview below, Kicklighter discusses volatility, the impact of the LDP on the yen, what is priced in for the fiscal cliff and more.
John Kicklighter is a currency strategist for FXCM in New York where he specializes in combining fundamental and technical analysis with money management. John authors a number of regular articles for DailyFX.com, ranging in topics from basic fundamental forecasts for the G10 economies and commodities to more complex subjects like the level of risk sentiment across the financial markets and the carry trade specifically. John has actively traded since he was a teenager. His experience ranges from spot currency, financial futures, commodities, stocks, and options on all of these instruments for his personal accounts. John graduated from the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College in New York with a Bachelors degree in Finance and Investment.
1. Following the landslide victory of the LDP in Japan, do you think the yen could further weaken before the year ends, or could it take action from the new government to see such a move?
There are two factors that will work against further yen depreciation. First we have the natural inclination for short to medium-term traders to unwind speculative positions (like the long carry that yen crosses represent) into the end of the year. That is a natural pull on the market. The other consideration is the ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ aspect that we often seen with major event risk like this. However, it seems that income Prime Minister Abe is aware of that factor. This week he has already removed the budget spending cap and has gone to visit the BoJ governor – presumably to push forward his demands for further, aggressive stimulus (this is why we keep hearing about the 2 percent inflation target). If they can keep the stimulus effort continuously building through year-end, we could still advance (see the yen decline). However, all that would be rendered moot if risk aversion kicks in. Policy officials have a non-existent record when it comes to fight sentiment flows that unwind carry and leverages safe havens.
2. There are reports about progress in the “fiscal cliff” negotiations. After QE4 has been announced and Greece received the tranche of aid, could an announcement of a deal before the holidays further push the dollar lower? Or could we get a different response?
While it looks like there is a general consensus within the market that the US will come to a deal to avoid the Fiscal Cliff (otherwise, you wouldn’t have seen markets advance with such tenacity these past four weeks), the impact that the alternative scenario would carry is just so severe that there is ‘insurance’ positioning in the market in case it does happen. That means that if there is a resolution, you are likely to still see some advance from equities and risk (losses for the dollar). However, it will lack for follow through as this is still the illiquid holiday trading period. If we ‘go over the Cliff’, it would have a significant impact on the pumped up premium in capital markets and the dollar would advance. Of course, the pace will be dictated by the market conditions.
3. NZD/USD reached highs last seen in 2011. Could the central bank intervene to lower the currency, or is the bar too high at the moment.
There have been a few efforts to intervene on behalf of the New Zealand dollar over the past few years by the RBNZ. The efforts have been dubious at best. In each of the efforts, the market has bowled through the unusual activities as underlying risk trends have kept a consistent flow of investment capital to offset their otherwise modest influence. The kiwi is considered a major currency because it is treated as an investment destination for global capital. To have the Central Bank deliver a modest decrease in the exchange rate will not permanently curb the inflow of capital seeking high yield returns in the country’s highly rated debt. At this point, many of the conditions laid out for intervention have been met. However, both Finance Minister English and RBNZ Governor Wheeler have voiced their lack of confidence that such a move would have any lasting influence.
4. The SNB has left policy unchanged once again. What would convince them to remove the peg? Is a change in policy still far away?
They wouldn’t move the peg unless they were absolutely forced to. There is little benefit to raise the floor on the EURCHF up from 1.2000 to a higher level as they will simply face the same issues and have a larger initial outlay to drive the exchange rate higher to return there. The issue that faces policy officials in Switzerland is that there is a steady capital outflow from the Eurozone as people look to protect their wealth from financial uncertainty and taxes. Individuals and corporations don’t mind that they won’t see an advantageous exchange rate move (EURCHF drop) if they move their capital into the Swiss banking system. They simply want the peace of mind of security. And, they won’t be lifting the floor altogether unless they were confident in the recovery of the Eurozone financial situation – as that is the source of their problems.
5. Looking forward to 2013, could we see volatility picking up after a few relatively slow months? What could trigger a move?
We will likely see volatility pick up in the first six (if not first three) months of the year. We are currently scraping along at the lowest levels of activity in 5 years and that is largely predicated on the lowest level of participation in 15 years. There are two ways that volatility and trend pick up going forward. First, we see the return of a serious risk to the broader system – or at least a large portion of it. That fear could send capital racing away from risky assets and into safe havens, thereby supplying the fear that sets off the insurance premium readings that indicators like the VIX represent. The other option is to see investment capital slowly return to the regular investment arena (carry trades, equities, etc). If that occurs, we will see volatility measures slowly pick up as participation fills out for the normal ebb and flow of risk appetite.
In the interview below, Kicklighter discusses volatility, the impact of the LDP on the yen, what is priced in for the fiscal cliff and more.
John Kicklighter is a currency strategist for FXCM in New York where he specializes in combining fundamental and technical analysis with money management. John authors a number of regular articles for DailyFX.com, ranging in topics from basic fundamental forecasts for the G10 economies and commodities to more complex subjects like the level of risk sentiment across the financial markets and the carry trade specifically. John has actively traded since he was a teenager. His experience ranges from spot currency, financial futures, commodities, stocks, and options on all of these instruments for his personal accounts. John graduated from the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College in New York with a Bachelors degree in Finance and Investment.
1. Following the landslide victory of the LDP in Japan, do you think the yen could further weaken before the year ends, or could it take action from the new government to see such a move?
There are two factors that will work against further yen depreciation. First we have the natural inclination for short to medium-term traders to unwind speculative positions (like the long carry that yen crosses represent) into the end of the year. That is a natural pull on the market. The other consideration is the ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ aspect that we often seen with major event risk like this. However, it seems that income Prime Minister Abe is aware of that factor. This week he has already removed the budget spending cap and has gone to visit the BoJ governor – presumably to push forward his demands for further, aggressive stimulus (this is why we keep hearing about the 2 percent inflation target). If they can keep the stimulus effort continuously building through year-end, we could still advance (see the yen decline). However, all that would be rendered moot if risk aversion kicks in. Policy officials have a non-existent record when it comes to fight sentiment flows that unwind carry and leverages safe havens.
2. There are reports about progress in the “fiscal cliff” negotiations. After QE4 has been announced and Greece received the tranche of aid, could an announcement of a deal before the holidays further push the dollar lower? Or could we get a different response?
While it looks like there is a general consensus within the market that the US will come to a deal to avoid the Fiscal Cliff (otherwise, you wouldn’t have seen markets advance with such tenacity these past four weeks), the impact that the alternative scenario would carry is just so severe that there is ‘insurance’ positioning in the market in case it does happen. That means that if there is a resolution, you are likely to still see some advance from equities and risk (losses for the dollar). However, it will lack for follow through as this is still the illiquid holiday trading period. If we ‘go over the Cliff’, it would have a significant impact on the pumped up premium in capital markets and the dollar would advance. Of course, the pace will be dictated by the market conditions.
3. NZD/USD reached highs last seen in 2011. Could the central bank intervene to lower the currency, or is the bar too high at the moment.
There have been a few efforts to intervene on behalf of the New Zealand dollar over the past few years by the RBNZ. The efforts have been dubious at best. In each of the efforts, the market has bowled through the unusual activities as underlying risk trends have kept a consistent flow of investment capital to offset their otherwise modest influence. The kiwi is considered a major currency because it is treated as an investment destination for global capital. To have the Central Bank deliver a modest decrease in the exchange rate will not permanently curb the inflow of capital seeking high yield returns in the country’s highly rated debt. At this point, many of the conditions laid out for intervention have been met. However, both Finance Minister English and RBNZ Governor Wheeler have voiced their lack of confidence that such a move would have any lasting influence.
4. The SNB has left policy unchanged once again. What would convince them to remove the peg? Is a change in policy still far away?
They wouldn’t move the peg unless they were absolutely forced to. There is little benefit to raise the floor on the EURCHF up from 1.2000 to a higher level as they will simply face the same issues and have a larger initial outlay to drive the exchange rate higher to return there. The issue that faces policy officials in Switzerland is that there is a steady capital outflow from the Eurozone as people look to protect their wealth from financial uncertainty and taxes. Individuals and corporations don’t mind that they won’t see an advantageous exchange rate move (EURCHF drop) if they move their capital into the Swiss banking system. They simply want the peace of mind of security. And, they won’t be lifting the floor altogether unless they were confident in the recovery of the Eurozone financial situation – as that is the source of their problems.
5. Looking forward to 2013, could we see volatility picking up after a few relatively slow months? What could trigger a move?
We will likely see volatility pick up in the first six (if not first three) months of the year. We are currently scraping along at the lowest levels of activity in 5 years and that is largely predicated on the lowest level of participation in 15 years. There are two ways that volatility and trend pick up going forward. First, we see the return of a serious risk to the broader system – or at least a large portion of it. That fear could send capital racing away from risky assets and into safe havens, thereby supplying the fear that sets off the insurance premium readings that indicators like the VIX represent. The other option is to see investment capital slowly return to the regular investment arena (carry trades, equities, etc). If that occurs, we will see volatility measures slowly pick up as participation fills out for the normal ebb and flow of risk appetite.
炒外汇高手如何把握波段反弹
汇市反弹机会难以把握，难就难在我们不知道是下跌的中继行情，还是下跌探底之后的反转行情。如果是下跌的中继行情，我们买入之后，面临的是再次下跌的风险，搞不好还会深度套牢。如果是探底之后的反转行情，一次强劲的反弹丝毫不亚于一波次中级行情，而且具有极高的盈利机率，充分利用汇市暴跌后形成的反弹机会，可以赚取丰厚的利润。
抢反弹分两种情况：第一种是在急跌中做弱势反弹，对买入的点位要求非常严格，因为急跌之后的反弹非常短暂，机会稍纵即逝，买在最低点风险最小。操作上要求短平快，快进快出盈利就平仓，难度非常大;第二种是在阶段性底部做波段反弹，这种做起来相对好把握一些，但要求准确判断行情，如果判断是一个波段反弹，那么反弹的高度应该相对高一些，获利目标也比较高，一旦判断失误，就会全线被套。
我认为，回避反弹的高风险最有效的方法就是控制好自己的仓位。我抢反弹时，仓位从来不会超过1/3。为什么只做1/3仓?首先1/3仓所承受的风险也只有1/3，即使判断错误止损的时候也不会手软;其次是另外2/3的资金可以作为后备救援的兵力，如果操作错误，行情下跌而又错过了最佳止损时机，我可以在下一个反弹的底部来补仓摊低成本，只要行情稍有反弹，就可以将上方套牢的1/3资金解救出来，说不定还能盈利。
很多汇民不管什么样的行情，都是全仓买入全仓卖出，没有一点回旋的余地。行情真的反弹了倒不会有事，假如行情没有出现预期的反弹，马上就处于全面被套的尴尬境地。
抢反弹要把握两个时机：一是行情在前一天或者前两天已经出现了大幅下跌，负的乖离率非常大;二是目前行情处在非常重要的支撑位，比如30天平均线、60天平均线、200天平均线，或者处在上一波上涨走势的黄金分割位，比如在0.382位、0.5位、0.618位;或者处在前期密集成交区，也就是说和当前汇价持平的位置，前期曾经形成一个密集成交的走势平台。为什么要这样做呢?一般来说，在移动平均线所处的位置、黄金分割所处的位置或者密集成交平台，这些位置都是市场持仓成本密集的地方，卖方力量在到达这里的时候，短线极有可能出现最后的衰竭，买方力量会趁虚而入，行情很容易出现预期的反弹。
如果说能在急跌中抢当日反弹的是一流高手，那么做波段反弹是普通投资者都应该掌握的。波段反弹持续的时间一般在两周以上，反弹高度至少有几百点,放弃这样的盈利机会太可惜了。如何把握波段反弹?应该从以下三点着手：
一是看K线。K线代表的是汇价，看K线就是要得出汇价不再下跌的结论。下跌和反弹是方向完全相反的两种走势，必然要经过一个多空相对平衡的区域，这既要耗费一定的时间，也会在汇价中有所反映，这就是我们经常提到的形态。汇价不再下跌必然会带动短期均线从下跌转为走平，这是汇价反弹的基础。
二是看移动平均线，一般看5日均线。一旦我们看到5日均线由下降转为走平，就应高度关注。这时候其他的平均线如10日均线、20日均线、30日均线还在向下运行，如果某一天汇价向上突破10日均线，基本就可以确定波段反弹已经开始。
一般情况下，汇价第一次突破10日均线后，还会出现一定的回抽，也有可能回到10日均线下方。当汇价再次上涨，必然会带动5日均线向上运行，并向上穿10日均线。到这个时候我们就可以完全确定反弹已经开始。
在操作时，也应分三步走：发现5日均线开始走平时，可买入1/3仓;发现汇价突破10日均线时，再买入1/3仓;汇价回抽后，确认再次向上运行时，可大胆地买入最后的1/3仓。此时就完成了一个做波段反弹最安全最科学的操作。这样我们进可攻退可守，安然自若，轻轻松松把反弹的利润悉数收入囊中。
三是看技术指标。技术指标运行在相对低位也是反弹的必要条件。低位指标本身就反映市场处在超卖状态，超卖状态不可能长时间维持，必然会在适当的时间和位置出现预期的反弹。
我们要注意以下三点：首先是指标必须运行在低位，这是反弹的首要条件;其次是指标必须在低位出现黄金交叉，这是反弹启动的标志;再次是最好能出现指标底背离状态，这样把握反弹的概率会更高。我们运用技术指标，不必要去追求一些非常奇特的或者计算公式很复杂的指标，其实就用我们常用的RSI、KDJ、MACD效果就非常好。技术指标关键是要会用，而不是追求新奇。
经过K线、移动平均线和技术指标三方面的相互配合验证，做波段反弹的成功率就会大大提高。汇民朋友可以在今后的汇市操作中，细心体会不断总结提高，祝您成为下跌行情中抢反弹的高手。
炒外汇之顺势交易
有不少操盘手目前的意识还认为只有博一下才能赚大钱。这样的观点老早说过是错误的，为什么？即使你博对了方向，那么你也未必能够把握好出局价格，或者卖早了，或者卖晚了。即便你真的博到了一笔大钱，那么你也未必能够取走这些钱。…… 1 2 3 4 下一页顺势交易，顾名思义就是顺着当前的趋势进行买卖。如果当前趋势涨就买入开仓，当前趋势跌就卖出开仓。虽然顺势交易理解上不存在问题，然而这只是顺势交易的表面意义。在实际交易中，这并不容易下手。因为这里面有很多不确定的因素，就是趋势的分析和判断。因为同样一个趋势，对于不同的操盘手有着不同的看法。其次，对于选择顺应趋势的级别上也有很大的不同。有的操盘手喜欢顺应大级别的趋势，有的则喜欢顺应小级别的趋势。而且，顺势交易同样也有其弊端。顺势交易的最大弊端就是会导致操盘手进行追涨杀跌。因为有的操盘手看清趋势的时间比较晚，等到彵们看清趋势的时候，可能已经是趋势发展晚期的时候了，这样就导致了操盘手出现追涨杀跌的情况了，而追涨杀跌同样是一个很大的麻烦。
不过无论你是否认同顺势交易，但他确实是目前投机市场中最常用的交易方法之一，无论是在国外还是在国内。因为顺势交易更靠近市场的一边，而市场趋势的发展往往会有一个过程，只是有的过程短，有的过程长而已。研究趋势的方向就是研究目前市场的动态，认识目前市场正在做什么。而站在市场一方的胜率往往就比较大，至少我可以认为市场不会经常的、突然的改变其目前的运动方向，这也就是趋势的惯性。
而逆市操盘手凭借着的就是市场多空转化。彵们认为市场运行了一段涨势之后，必然会运行一段时间的跌势。这就是彵们认可逆市交易的原因。然而彵们可能没有想到的是，一个主流的趋势是不会轻易改变的，特别是一个大级别的趋势。如2000年开始的欧元牛市，直到2008年的今天依然没有结束的趋势。而虽然小级别的趋势多空转化会明显一些，但是彵们转化的力度是远远不同的。比如说一个短期上升趋势价格上涨了300点，但是随后的短期下跌趋势其力度一般很难达到300点，甚至很难达到100点。而如果本身市场处于大牛市中，短期下跌趋势可能结束的也很快，这样把握起来难度就更大了，风险和报酬比不佳。不过，如果顺应大趋势，而逆小级别的趋势又如何呢？这个到可以一试，而且很多高手也会用这个方法进行开仓操作。但是，使用这个必须注意，绝对不能在亏损的情况下继续加码。
对于大多数操盘手来说，顺势交易还是可以接受的。但是在一些细节上确实有些不同，下面来看看我们应该如何追随趋势。
第一个问题就是如何判断趋势的问题。如何判断趋势，这很重要。如果趋势判断错误了，那么顺势逆势就没什么意义了。因为你根本不知道现在的势，那么又怎么顺呢？
趋势判断的方法还是很多的，有均线系统，有道氏理论，有趋势理论等等。但是我们必须固定使用一套方法，也就是自己的一套判断趋势的方法。这样可以达到趋势判断前后的一致性。这里我将给大家介绍一种方法，这种方法还是结合了这些经典的趋势分析理论。 1 2 3 4 下一页首先我们把趋势的方向划分为上涨、下跌和横盘，这个没有多大问题。其次就是划分趋势的级别，我们一般把趋势分为小级别的趋势、短期趋势、中期趋势、以及长期趋势。
小级别的趋势是指价格在短时间内的表现，时间一般为1-3天之间。小级别的趋势往往发生在短期趋势中且方向相反，也就是我们所说的小级别反弹或回调，但是这对整体趋势影响不大。而壹旦小级别趋势被新高或者新低所代替，往往是比较好的进场点，无论是开仓还是加码。
短期趋势是指价格在短期内的表现，上涨、下跌或横盘。我们一般看他的价格是否是3天到10天左右的新高或者新高。如果是，那么我们可以说目前价格的短期趋势是上涨的。同样短期下跌趋势也是同样的道理，只是价格是规定时间内的新低。当然，如果当天收盘能够维持这个新高或者新低就最好了。怎么理解3天到10天的新高或新低呢？3天的新高就是第三天的高点比前两天任何一个最高点都要高，此时我们就可以称为3天内的新高。那么10天也可以理解了，新低就是反过来好了。除此之外，我们还应该注意到，短期上升趋势和短期下跌趋势是交替循环的。也就是说两个短期上升之间，必然有一个短期下跌趋势。
中期趋势就是把时间段适当延长，一般是指20天到50天左右，短期趋势是否创出规定天数内的新高或者新低。这里面的短期趋势和短期趋势中的天是一个意思，也就是我们把短期趋势作为一个整体（即短期趋势中的一天），然后看这个整体目前价格是否创出新高来判断是否目前价格是否处于中期上升趋势。那么，中期下跌趋势则是相同的道理。
长期趋势也就是同样的道理了，只要把时间段再延长一些就可以了，但是这并不需要很详细的了解，因为大趋势还是可以一眼看清楚的。反而短期、中期趋势大家看得到是不很清楚。
除了这种方法判断趋势级别以外，我们还可以根据趋势线来验证目前趋势判断是否准确。短期趋势用短期趋势线，就是把价格的低点依次连接起来，看看是否成一直线。中期趋势就是将短期趋势的低点连接起来，看看是否在此直线之上。实质上，趋势线的最大作用是判断趋势发展的强弱。
中期趋势是由短期上升趋势和短期下跌趋势组成的。而长期趋势则又有中期趋势上涨和短期（或者中期下跌趋势组成的。同时趋势的发展也有强弱的问题。
趋势的强弱，一个是看趋势线的斜率，上涨陡峭的一般都是上涨强的；一个就是看日线组合，强上升趋势一般连续的阳线。最后就是上涨时是否有大趋势的配合等等。
如果趋势一开始就是强的，往往以后还会强。这就是趋势强度的趋势关系。这对于开仓点位的选择也是比较重要的。 上一页 1 2 3 4 下一页趋势判断好之后，可能有些问题就可以迎刃而解了。
顺势交易，到底顺哪个势呢？首先我觉得应该顺趋势级别比较大的那个势，其次就是顺趋势强度比较大的那个势。中期上升趋势，最好不要急着做空；中期下跌趋势则不应该急着做多，而中期横盘趋势则不能多做。那么短期趋势又该如何顺呢？
虽然也有不少操盘手在上升趋势中的调整阶段买入，这样做是顺了大一级别的趋势，但是短期却逆了短期趋势。虽然如此操作盈利的空间比较大，但是调整中买一定不能买早了，否则可能还等不到上升趋势的到来就已经止损或者清仓出局了。所以，我认为短期趋势最好也要顺着。
顺应短期趋势可以让自己处于更加灵活的位置，但是只要是顺势都会有一个问题，就是买点在短期内过高的问题，或者买入后价格随后就进行小幅调整。为了避免这个问题，那么我们可以在短期趋势形成的初期就进行买入。那么这样可以为以后的买入提供利润保证，怎么说呢？如果你第一仓有了一些利润，那么接下来的第二仓出现一定的亏损也就不会有太大的心理负担，为平稳度过短期调整提供保证，而壹旦价格重新走强，那么你已经走入赢利，对于价格的波动就可以安心的处置了。
持有赢利的部位总是比持有亏损的部位要来得安心，这也是正常的心理。有的操盘手持有亏损的头寸反而感觉安心，这就是不健康的心理了。换句话说，如果你一开始就持有赢利的部位，那么你抓住大行情的机会就越大。
所以，这里面就涉及到了最佳的进场位。因为这个时候利润和风险的比是最理想的。
以下就是一些比较理想进场位或者说最佳进场位。
关键点的突破和短期上升趋势刚开始的阶段。
关键点的突破有很多情况，一个是重要阻力区，这里一般是指前期的高点，具有意义的整数关口，和阶段性新高。
而短期上升趋势开始的阶段往往是指在一些特殊的短期上升趋势。如横向趋势突破后的短期上升趋势，中期上升趋势调整后的短期上升。
我不想具体展开某一个方法，因为对你来说，能了解我的思路应该已经足够了。
在顺势交易中，最需要的心理就是耐心等待。虽然我这样给出的交易机会不算少，但是也不会经常出现。所以在交易机会出现之前，只有耐心等待了。能够少几次失误，就能够多几次成功，这个完全是成正比关系的。3次交易抓一把大行情和10次交易抓一把大行情，你说哪个方法更好？
没有耐心往往导致介入过早，介入过早就要经受市场的波动，因为此时尚未完全展开上涨或者可能还处在下跌趋势中，而这些情况你往往无法坚持得住或者你的止损计划也不会让你继续坚持的。急着想赚上一笔钞票，往往会导致我们失去耐心，迫不及待的、过早的介入市场。 上一页 1 2 3 4 下一页过犹不及。与过早相对应的就是过晚。有的操盘手非要把趋势看得很清楚了才开始介入，如果行情发展到大家都能够看得很清楚的话，此时趋势往往会开始减弱、调整甚至是反转。所以，过早和过晚介入都不是理想的介入时机。像诸如此类例子大家一定经历了很多，大家想想看自己的问题到底出在什么地方。
每当行情开始发展的初期，很多操盘手都尝试着去寻找原因，而且有相当一部分操盘手认为没有找到上涨的理由是不会轻易介入的。然而彵们或许没有理解到，信息的传播是需要时间的或者信息的解释也需要。信息的传播需要时间这个大家都能理解，有的消息到你这里可能需要一些时间。信息的解释是什么呢？对于某个信息，你可能认为没啥作用，但是市场认为有作用，但是这个作用是慢慢被解释的，而当你被解释明白的时候，或许行情已经发展一大半了。
一代投机大师JesseLivermore在《股票作手回忆录》的开始几页就明确的写到，“理由可以等待，但是你必须立即行动，否则就会被抛在后面。”这也就是我要传达给你的意思。既然是依照趋势交易的，那么就按照趋势来好了，不要想这个想那个。有的时候我也经常看一些基本面的分析报告，分析的头头是道，看了之后你可能都不敢去交易了。
对于基本面操盘手或者其他特殊的操盘手，我不敢多加评论，毕竟只要能够被市场证明是有效的，那么他一定就是有效的。
一。风险控制大部分专业人士一致同意新手和业余操盘手花太多时间研究进场技巧，觉得它们对操作成功十分重要。而彵们却认识，赢家和输家的区别就在于风险管理。
由于市场走势很难预测，所以采用适当的风险管理技巧对交易的效果，远好于寻找更好的新方法以判断市场下一个顶部或底部。
操盘手不怕没有机会去交易，而是怕没有本金进行交易。如果你输光了本钱，那么你就没有办法继续交易了。你可以东山再起，但是这样的麻烦为什么不避免呢？东山再起是有难度的，而且要有极大的毅力。然而，东山再起后你还是不注意控制风险，那么你以后还可以继续交易吗？
有不少操盘手目前的意识还认为只有博一下才能赚大钱。这样的观点老早说过是错误的，为什么？即使你博对了方向，那么你也未必能够把握好出局价格，或者卖早了，或者卖晚了。即便你真的博到了一笔大钱，那么你也未必能够取走这些钱。而万一以后有一次博错了，那么你很有可能连本带前面的赢利一起亏光，而前面的赢利也只能给你带来片刻的幸喜。这样的例子听过的实在是太多了。我想你也经常听说这样的故事。而万一你一开始就博错了，那结果会如何呢？你一定会被感失落和绝望，痛苦与窘迫。这样的情况我想你一定不希望发生在你身上，既然如此，你就要控制好自己，让自己不要博，不要赌。
博与赌都是指重仓交易，而重仓交易显然忽视了风险的存在和严重性。然而一般的中等持仓同样也会出现严重亏损。为什么？就是不认输的问题。不认输就是表现在不愿意止损，情况更差的就是在严重亏损的时候还在继续加码。很多人认为壹旦止损就是事实在在的亏损了，而再要把损失绊回来就很难了。但是彵们难道没有想过，帐面的亏损难道就容易半回来？交易壹旦出现亏损，就说明我们遇到麻烦了，至少可以说明我们在哪个地方出现了问题和差错。此时应该引起高度的注意了。而壹旦亏损放大，那么这个问题将越来越严重，此时就应该利马采取措施来解决问题，防止亏损的进一步放大。否则，到时候你将被市场控制住，让你动弹不得。
不知道你有没有遇到这样的问题，反正我是遇到过，我被这件事绞得不得安宁。就是因为当初没有执行止损操作，而资金亏损到上不上，下不下的位置。平仓嘛觉得价格可能会稳定下来，不平仓嘛感觉价格会继续朝我不利的方向发展。我被夹在中间动弹不得，此时是最要命的。这个时候一定要下决心计划怎么处理，越快越好。然而无论如何，这样的事情发生已经让人沮丧和痛苦了，我们为什么不禁止这样的事情继续发生呢？反正我现在是尽全力让这样的事情不再发生，永远不再。我一直鼓励自己这么做。
不过无论你是否认同顺势交易，但他确实是目前投机市场中最常用的交易方法之一，无论是在国外还是在国内。因为顺势交易更靠近市场的一边，而市场趋势的发展往往会有一个过程，只是有的过程短，有的过程长而已。研究趋势的方向就是研究目前市场的动态，认识目前市场正在做什么。而站在市场一方的胜率往往就比较大，至少我可以认为市场不会经常的、突然的改变其目前的运动方向，这也就是趋势的惯性。
而逆市操盘手凭借着的就是市场多空转化。彵们认为市场运行了一段涨势之后，必然会运行一段时间的跌势。这就是彵们认可逆市交易的原因。然而彵们可能没有想到的是，一个主流的趋势是不会轻易改变的，特别是一个大级别的趋势。如2000年开始的欧元牛市，直到2008年的今天依然没有结束的趋势。而虽然小级别的趋势多空转化会明显一些，但是彵们转化的力度是远远不同的。比如说一个短期上升趋势价格上涨了300点，但是随后的短期下跌趋势其力度一般很难达到300点，甚至很难达到100点。而如果本身市场处于大牛市中，短期下跌趋势可能结束的也很快，这样把握起来难度就更大了，风险和报酬比不佳。不过，如果顺应大趋势，而逆小级别的趋势又如何呢？这个到可以一试，而且很多高手也会用这个方法进行开仓操作。但是，使用这个必须注意，绝对不能在亏损的情况下继续加码。
对于大多数操盘手来说，顺势交易还是可以接受的。但是在一些细节上确实有些不同，下面来看看我们应该如何追随趋势。
第一个问题就是如何判断趋势的问题。如何判断趋势，这很重要。如果趋势判断错误了，那么顺势逆势就没什么意义了。因为你根本不知道现在的势，那么又怎么顺呢？
趋势判断的方法还是很多的，有均线系统，有道氏理论，有趋势理论等等。但是我们必须固定使用一套方法，也就是自己的一套判断趋势的方法。这样可以达到趋势判断前后的一致性。这里我将给大家介绍一种方法，这种方法还是结合了这些经典的趋势分析理论。 1 2 3 4 下一页首先我们把趋势的方向划分为上涨、下跌和横盘，这个没有多大问题。其次就是划分趋势的级别，我们一般把趋势分为小级别的趋势、短期趋势、中期趋势、以及长期趋势。
小级别的趋势是指价格在短时间内的表现，时间一般为1-3天之间。小级别的趋势往往发生在短期趋势中且方向相反，也就是我们所说的小级别反弹或回调，但是这对整体趋势影响不大。而壹旦小级别趋势被新高或者新低所代替，往往是比较好的进场点，无论是开仓还是加码。
短期趋势是指价格在短期内的表现，上涨、下跌或横盘。我们一般看他的价格是否是3天到10天左右的新高或者新高。如果是，那么我们可以说目前价格的短期趋势是上涨的。同样短期下跌趋势也是同样的道理，只是价格是规定时间内的新低。当然，如果当天收盘能够维持这个新高或者新低就最好了。怎么理解3天到10天的新高或新低呢？3天的新高就是第三天的高点比前两天任何一个最高点都要高，此时我们就可以称为3天内的新高。那么10天也可以理解了，新低就是反过来好了。除此之外，我们还应该注意到，短期上升趋势和短期下跌趋势是交替循环的。也就是说两个短期上升之间，必然有一个短期下跌趋势。
中期趋势就是把时间段适当延长，一般是指20天到50天左右，短期趋势是否创出规定天数内的新高或者新低。这里面的短期趋势和短期趋势中的天是一个意思，也就是我们把短期趋势作为一个整体（即短期趋势中的一天），然后看这个整体目前价格是否创出新高来判断是否目前价格是否处于中期上升趋势。那么，中期下跌趋势则是相同的道理。
长期趋势也就是同样的道理了，只要把时间段再延长一些就可以了，但是这并不需要很详细的了解，因为大趋势还是可以一眼看清楚的。反而短期、中期趋势大家看得到是不很清楚。
除了这种方法判断趋势级别以外，我们还可以根据趋势线来验证目前趋势判断是否准确。短期趋势用短期趋势线，就是把价格的低点依次连接起来，看看是否成一直线。中期趋势就是将短期趋势的低点连接起来，看看是否在此直线之上。实质上，趋势线的最大作用是判断趋势发展的强弱。
中期趋势是由短期上升趋势和短期下跌趋势组成的。而长期趋势则又有中期趋势上涨和短期（或者中期下跌趋势组成的。同时趋势的发展也有强弱的问题。
趋势的强弱，一个是看趋势线的斜率，上涨陡峭的一般都是上涨强的；一个就是看日线组合，强上升趋势一般连续的阳线。最后就是上涨时是否有大趋势的配合等等。
如果趋势一开始就是强的，往往以后还会强。这就是趋势强度的趋势关系。这对于开仓点位的选择也是比较重要的。 上一页 1 2 3 4 下一页趋势判断好之后，可能有些问题就可以迎刃而解了。
顺势交易，到底顺哪个势呢？首先我觉得应该顺趋势级别比较大的那个势，其次就是顺趋势强度比较大的那个势。中期上升趋势，最好不要急着做空；中期下跌趋势则不应该急着做多，而中期横盘趋势则不能多做。那么短期趋势又该如何顺呢？
虽然也有不少操盘手在上升趋势中的调整阶段买入，这样做是顺了大一级别的趋势，但是短期却逆了短期趋势。虽然如此操作盈利的空间比较大，但是调整中买一定不能买早了，否则可能还等不到上升趋势的到来就已经止损或者清仓出局了。所以，我认为短期趋势最好也要顺着。
顺应短期趋势可以让自己处于更加灵活的位置，但是只要是顺势都会有一个问题，就是买点在短期内过高的问题，或者买入后价格随后就进行小幅调整。为了避免这个问题，那么我们可以在短期趋势形成的初期就进行买入。那么这样可以为以后的买入提供利润保证，怎么说呢？如果你第一仓有了一些利润，那么接下来的第二仓出现一定的亏损也就不会有太大的心理负担，为平稳度过短期调整提供保证，而壹旦价格重新走强，那么你已经走入赢利，对于价格的波动就可以安心的处置了。
持有赢利的部位总是比持有亏损的部位要来得安心，这也是正常的心理。有的操盘手持有亏损的头寸反而感觉安心，这就是不健康的心理了。换句话说，如果你一开始就持有赢利的部位，那么你抓住大行情的机会就越大。
所以，这里面就涉及到了最佳的进场位。因为这个时候利润和风险的比是最理想的。
以下就是一些比较理想进场位或者说最佳进场位。
关键点的突破和短期上升趋势刚开始的阶段。
关键点的突破有很多情况，一个是重要阻力区，这里一般是指前期的高点，具有意义的整数关口，和阶段性新高。
而短期上升趋势开始的阶段往往是指在一些特殊的短期上升趋势。如横向趋势突破后的短期上升趋势，中期上升趋势调整后的短期上升。
我不想具体展开某一个方法，因为对你来说，能了解我的思路应该已经足够了。
在顺势交易中，最需要的心理就是耐心等待。虽然我这样给出的交易机会不算少，但是也不会经常出现。所以在交易机会出现之前，只有耐心等待了。能够少几次失误，就能够多几次成功，这个完全是成正比关系的。3次交易抓一把大行情和10次交易抓一把大行情，你说哪个方法更好？
没有耐心往往导致介入过早，介入过早就要经受市场的波动，因为此时尚未完全展开上涨或者可能还处在下跌趋势中，而这些情况你往往无法坚持得住或者你的止损计划也不会让你继续坚持的。急着想赚上一笔钞票，往往会导致我们失去耐心，迫不及待的、过早的介入市场。 上一页 1 2 3 4 下一页过犹不及。与过早相对应的就是过晚。有的操盘手非要把趋势看得很清楚了才开始介入，如果行情发展到大家都能够看得很清楚的话，此时趋势往往会开始减弱、调整甚至是反转。所以，过早和过晚介入都不是理想的介入时机。像诸如此类例子大家一定经历了很多，大家想想看自己的问题到底出在什么地方。
每当行情开始发展的初期，很多操盘手都尝试着去寻找原因，而且有相当一部分操盘手认为没有找到上涨的理由是不会轻易介入的。然而彵们或许没有理解到，信息的传播是需要时间的或者信息的解释也需要。信息的传播需要时间这个大家都能理解，有的消息到你这里可能需要一些时间。信息的解释是什么呢？对于某个信息，你可能认为没啥作用，但是市场认为有作用，但是这个作用是慢慢被解释的，而当你被解释明白的时候，或许行情已经发展一大半了。
一代投机大师JesseLivermore在《股票作手回忆录》的开始几页就明确的写到，“理由可以等待，但是你必须立即行动，否则就会被抛在后面。”这也就是我要传达给你的意思。既然是依照趋势交易的，那么就按照趋势来好了，不要想这个想那个。有的时候我也经常看一些基本面的分析报告，分析的头头是道，看了之后你可能都不敢去交易了。
对于基本面操盘手或者其他特殊的操盘手，我不敢多加评论，毕竟只要能够被市场证明是有效的，那么他一定就是有效的。
一。风险控制大部分专业人士一致同意新手和业余操盘手花太多时间研究进场技巧，觉得它们对操作成功十分重要。而彵们却认识，赢家和输家的区别就在于风险管理。
由于市场走势很难预测，所以采用适当的风险管理技巧对交易的效果，远好于寻找更好的新方法以判断市场下一个顶部或底部。
操盘手不怕没有机会去交易，而是怕没有本金进行交易。如果你输光了本钱，那么你就没有办法继续交易了。你可以东山再起，但是这样的麻烦为什么不避免呢？东山再起是有难度的，而且要有极大的毅力。然而，东山再起后你还是不注意控制风险，那么你以后还可以继续交易吗？
有不少操盘手目前的意识还认为只有博一下才能赚大钱。这样的观点老早说过是错误的，为什么？即使你博对了方向，那么你也未必能够把握好出局价格，或者卖早了，或者卖晚了。即便你真的博到了一笔大钱，那么你也未必能够取走这些钱。而万一以后有一次博错了，那么你很有可能连本带前面的赢利一起亏光，而前面的赢利也只能给你带来片刻的幸喜。这样的例子听过的实在是太多了。我想你也经常听说这样的故事。而万一你一开始就博错了，那结果会如何呢？你一定会被感失落和绝望，痛苦与窘迫。这样的情况我想你一定不希望发生在你身上，既然如此，你就要控制好自己，让自己不要博，不要赌。
博与赌都是指重仓交易，而重仓交易显然忽视了风险的存在和严重性。然而一般的中等持仓同样也会出现严重亏损。为什么？就是不认输的问题。不认输就是表现在不愿意止损，情况更差的就是在严重亏损的时候还在继续加码。很多人认为壹旦止损就是事实在在的亏损了，而再要把损失绊回来就很难了。但是彵们难道没有想过，帐面的亏损难道就容易半回来？交易壹旦出现亏损，就说明我们遇到麻烦了，至少可以说明我们在哪个地方出现了问题和差错。此时应该引起高度的注意了。而壹旦亏损放大，那么这个问题将越来越严重，此时就应该利马采取措施来解决问题，防止亏损的进一步放大。否则，到时候你将被市场控制住，让你动弹不得。
不知道你有没有遇到这样的问题，反正我是遇到过，我被这件事绞得不得安宁。就是因为当初没有执行止损操作，而资金亏损到上不上，下不下的位置。平仓嘛觉得价格可能会稳定下来，不平仓嘛感觉价格会继续朝我不利的方向发展。我被夹在中间动弹不得，此时是最要命的。这个时候一定要下决心计划怎么处理，越快越好。然而无论如何，这样的事情发生已经让人沮丧和痛苦了，我们为什么不禁止这样的事情继续发生呢？反正我现在是尽全力让这样的事情不再发生，永远不再。我一直鼓励自己这么做。
Forex Binary Options – An Upgraded Stop Loss
The forex industry continues to evolve with additional resources for knowledge, and now with additional resources for trading. Binary options can be used as an alternative for the traditional stop loss, and for hedging. Here are a few examples for this.
Let’s say that your trade plan is buy EUR/USD in case of a breakout or to short it if it fails to do so. The level can be 1.4720, you invest $100 on a binary PUT option promising a 170$ return in case the pair will close below that level.
In case of a bullish break out, you need to cover the hedging cost, which is $100 – $10 in return = $90. So, I need to anticipate a relevant breakout that will give me enough pips in order to return at least $90. Now there are two scenarios:
- If the breakout is real, you win in the forex trade and lose the hedging in th binary option – this is like paying a small premium to the insurance compan, when everything is OK. The win on the trade should be much more than the hedging cost.
- If the breakout was false, you lose the forex trade, but the binary option covers the losses since I get back the $100 + $70. This 70% win should cover the loss (and sometimes even more) in the forex trade.
After getting used to this method, the stop loss point can be moved to a better place. Although there are premiums involved, binary options, if used wisely, can be the sweet dream scalpers were waiting for.
Apart from breakouts, these binary forex options can be used for trading news events. For example, if we take American CPI, and it comes out stronger than expected, the dollar would normally rise on anticipation for a rate hike. The trader would go short on EUR/USD and defend this position by a CALL binary option.
Forex Trading Strategies
Fundamental Strategy
Trading Forex on Fundamental analysis is based on the understanding of underlying elements affecting the economy. Traders develop methods and strategies based on the historical data of certain economy conditions to predict the future moevement of the currency prices. Generally, good economy news will move the currency higher, and bad news will move currency lower.
If you like Fundamental trading, you need to learn and understand the economy condition, political situation, government regulation, relevant economic news, etc. The overall health of economy is important especialy like economic growth rates, interest rates, inflation, unemployment level, GDP, etc. For example, if US intends to increase their interest rate, US currency tends to move higher as people holding US currency in bank will receive a higher interest rate. However this is based on theoritical fundamental analysis. In most of the cases, before US announces the increase of interest rate, the US currency will probably have factored in the increased rate a few days or weeks ago. So when the announcement takes place, the US curreny might not move higher.
During the announcing of certain economic news, the currency tends to be more volatile. The reason is that there are traders who think the effect of the news is good, and another group of traders who analalyse that the effect of the news is bad for economy in the short or long term. Of course, unless there is a clear decision that the news is good or bad, it will be a tug-of-war between the traders and cause the curreny to be very volatile.
There are traders who specilize in trading news. They have their own strategies based on their observation of past historical data during the news announcement. They can achieve a substantial gain as well as high risk loss.
Most retail brokers will discourage traders to trade news. During the news anouncement, brokers can increase the currency spread up to 10 times (and sometimes more). (For the reason of why brokers increase the spread, it is discussed in Structure of Forex Borkers). Brokers sometimes freeze the trading server. That is the reason most of the complains about the brokers come from the traders who trade news.
Most traders will not trade fundamental as it is. This Fundamental information will combine with other strategies to make it more effective in predicting where the currency price is going.
Technical Charting Strategy
The Technical Charting strategy is probably the most popular one. Most of the trading strategies or systems in the market are derived from this Technical Chart. For technical chart trading, traders study the price movement and try to predict the future direction of the price.
One of the most popular charting that is widely use by traders is Japanese Chandlestick. (The other less popular is line chart). In order to facilitate in communicating among traders, traders give very create names to certain formation of Candlestick pattern such as hammer, shooting star, spinning top, doji (long legged, dragonfly, gravestone), engulfing, head and shoulder, double bottom/top, etc. Based on this charting pattern, traders will predict on where the next direction of the price movement.
In order to assist the traders in the technical anaylsis, a lot of Forex Indicators are created or invented. Indicators are mathemetical formula where calculation is based on the specific timeframe of historical price data. Based on these indicators, traders will extract certain information to help them in trading decision. Some of the most popular indicators are Moving Average (MA), Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD), Stochastics, Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Williams' Percent Range, etc.
Based on the combinations of a few indicators, chart paterns, candlestick timeframe, canddlestick patterns, and a set of specific rules for entry/exit the trade, a lot of trading strategies are created by traders. Some strategies are very simple to understand, and some are very complicated.
For technical chart trading, you need to understand the proper usage of the indicators and the significant of candlestick pattern formation. There are a lot of forum discussion on strategies based on technical charts and indicators. If you are new to Forex trading, you can visit this Forum to find out more. Some traders create their own system after they have enough market experiences in trading. Note that there is no strategy to produce profitable results forever. All these strategies work for certain market conditions, and you need to apply them at the right time. Therefore, you need to have Forex knowledge in order to trade successfully.
Hedging Strategy
There are quite a lot of ways to implement Hedging Strategy in Forex. Most, if not all, are based on these two type of strategies: Hedging on 1 currency pairs with different directions, and Hedging on multiple currency pairs.
Hedging With 1 Currency Pair
This Forex Hedging technique is to open two positions of currency A in different direction (open a Long position and Short position at the same time). The idea is to offset the losses in one position, and by the profit received in another position, no matter where the currency moves. Then, how do we make money from this Hedging technique ?
In order to profit from the this hedging technique, you need to have Forex knowledge, and understand its market movement. The idea is to take a profit from the winning position at certain price level, and wait for the price to reverse back to the (close to) original position, and close the other opened position with break-even or minor lose. For example, we open a Short and Long position at the price of 1.5000. Assuming that the curreny moves up, and it reaches 1.5100. The current status will be: Long position with a 100 pips (unrealized) profit, and the other Short position with a 100 pips (unrealized) lose (ignoring the spread). Based on our Forex knowledge, we know that this currency has almost reached the peak and would reverse back. Therefore, we quickly close the Long positions to realize a 100 Pips profit. As our prediction is true, the currency moves back to 1.5010, and we close the Short position with a realized lose of 10 Pips. Overall, we gain 90 Pips.
To further take an advantage of this hedge technique, we will open a (positive interest) position with the broker who pays interest, and another (negative interest) position with a broker who does not charge interest. If we hold these two positions long enough, we will gain interests. Note that taking Long position on GBPJPY will gain (positive) interest, and Short position on GBPJPY will pay interest.
Hedging With Mutiple Currency Pairs
This type of technique is not 100% hedged, and it is more complicated as we need to understand the characteristics and colleration of those currency pairs. This hedging strategy usually involves 2 or 3 currency pairs. For example, we Long EUR/USD, and Long USD/CHF. The idea is the same as above where we hedge USD. It would be likely that if EUR/USD goes up, and USD/CHF will come down. Therefore, we offset the losing trade USD/CHF with a profitable one EUR/USD. By holding on these two positions, we can collect the interest from both curreny pairs.
Choosing the currency pairs to hedge is important for this strategy. We need to understand the correlation among those pairs. There is aForum discussion on this correlation hedging strategy in details. However, you need to register (free) in order to access the forum.
Grid Strategy
The Grid Trading strategy is to open up two positions (Long and Short) at pre-determined distance price so that when the current price moves (in any direction), you close the profitable position, and re-open a new one with the same price and direction. You let the losing position stay (with no Stop Loss). When the price zig-zag around them, you will make a profit from this strategy.
Let's look at an example for GBPUSD pair with 20 pips distance. We assume that the current price is at 1.9600. We will create the LONG and SHORT limit orders at 1.9620, 1.9640, 1.9660, 1.9680, and 1.9700. At the same time, we will put the LONG and SHORT orders below the price at 1.9580, 1.9560, 1.9540, 1.9520, and 1.9500. Our target profit is 20 pips. When the price moves up, our upper limit LONG orders will get executed, and if it moves fast enough, it will hit our target profit too. We take profit at every 20 pips, and immediately re-open limit LONG orders at the same price. With all these order in place, if the prices moves back again, our SHORT orders will be executed, and take profit again at every 20 Pips. So if the price zig-zag between these price intervals (1.9500 to 1.9700), we will keep collecting profits. Note that we do not have a Stop Loss.
What if the price moves up and up, and does not retrace back. You will lose money in this situation. Worse still, you will probably have a margin call if you do not have enough money. This type of Grid strategy is good for ranging market, but no good for one way (strong) trending market.
There are quite a lot of other variety of Grid trading strategies such as you only Open Long orders above the current price and Short orders below the current price. Other will only open Long orders only, and no Short orders. Some others do not take profit and no stop loss, and they will take profit when overall positions are making money (at pre-determined target profit). In summary, you must know the current market situation, and apply the right Grid technique accordingly in order to make profit.
Martingle Strategy
The Martingle is a betting strategy made popular in 18th century France. The technique is to always double up when you lose until you win. For example, if you open 1 Lot GBPUSD Long at 1.9600, and put your Stop Loss at 1.9580. When the price hits your Stop Loss, you will open Long again with 2 Lots at 1.9680 with 20 pips Stop Loss (at 1.9560). If it hits your Stop Loss again, you will open Long with 4 Lots at 1.9560 with 20 Pips Stop Loss, and so on. If you keeps losing, you will keeps open the position with 8 Lost, 16 Lots, 31 Lots, etc. Based on the theory of probability, you will eventually win one time, and overal you still win. But you must be able to sustain the game with your big capital. If you do not, you will lose a lot of money. This type of Martingle strategy is very high risk.
Traders have been implementing a few variety of Martingle strategies to reduce the capital. One of the Martingle derived strategy is to put the Stop Loss at 20 Pips and Profit Target at 60 Pips. With these set-ups, you do not need to always double the Lots. For example, if you lose 2 trades consecutively with 1 Lot (40 Pips loss), and win the third trade with 1 Lot (60 Pips as our Target is 60 Pips), you still make 20 Pips profit. Notice that we only trade with 1 Lot. Other Martingle strategy will flip Long and Short. If you start with Long order and hit your Stop Loss, the next trade will be Short order, and the next will be Long again, and so on.
Scalping Strategy
Scalping is a strategy that you try to make a small profit (usually less than 10 pips) many times (with many trades) with small price changes, with each trade usually lasts in a few seconds or minutes. The strategy is used with the understanding that market is in consolidation pattern (side-way) most of the time before it moves into one direction. The best time to trade the scalping is usually during the time before London market opens, or after the US market closes.
The trade-off of scalping is that the reward/loss ratio does not seem to be attractive as you intend to make a very small profit by paying the spread of currency. However, once traders know the currency behavious, it seems to be easy to make a few pips many times than to try to profit from a big trend movement.
Another issue of scalping is with the broker. Most brokers do not like traders to scalp. You should check with the broker if they allow you to use the scalping strategy
Break-out Strategy
Forex break-out strategy seems to be opposite of the scalping strategy where you take the trade when there is a large price movement into a direction. Although Forex curreny price tends to move side-way most of the time, it will eventually moves into one direction. The idea is that once the current break-outs from its range (consolidation), it will have a big price movement into that direction. The best time to trade break-out is usually at the London market open, and London/US market closes.
Beside timimg, you can use other methods to identify the break-out. Most of the common ways to identify break-out are candlestick formation, chart pattern, news break, support-resistance, forex indicators (such as Bollinger Band) etc.
Swing Strategy
The concept of Swing trading is quite similar to Scalping technique except that you are using a bigger range for profit. Therefore, the Swing technique is more friendly to the brokers who does not allow Scalping.
Forex price moves upward and downward and sideway (consolidation) most of the time. The goal is indetify the low and high while the price fluctuates between the range. We then apply the most common technique where you buy low, sell high, and sell high, buy low.
News Trading Strategy
During significant news release (mostly economic news), the currency will have a large movement. Before news realease, we can put a Long (Buy-Stop) order above the current price, and a Short (Sell-Stop) order at certain distance. Once the news release, no matter where the price moves, as long as it moves into one direction, one of our order will be executed. We will then cancel out the other order. As the price moves a lot, we will make a huge profit from this simple strategy.
However, if the price have a big swing up and down and later consolidate, your two pending orders will be executed. You will probably lose both orders. In this case, your risk is low as you are hedged in both direction. But if the price moves into one direction, the profit is huge if you are successful. That is why a lot of traders who like to trade news.
There are some traders who only trade during news release as they claim that it is easy to make money during that time. However, the News Trading strategy has one caveat. Most brokers do not like you to trade during news release. Brokers will increase the spread (sometimes up to 30 to 40 pips), or they freeze your screen during significant news release. Thare is a reason why brokers have to do this. Please read the article Structure of Forex Borkers to find out the reason. In fact, most of the traders' complains about brokers relate to the news trading.
Carry Trade Strategy
Carry Trade strategy is to take advantage of the different interest between two currencies. The idea is to sell the curreny in a relatively lower interest rate, and use it to buy a currency with a high interest rate. For example, taking a Long position of AUD/JPY will earn an interest as AUD interest rate is 7%, and JPY interest rate is 0.5%. At the same time, traders will push the AUD currency high as more demand on the AUD dollars and push JPY currency low as most people sell it. This Carry Trade strategy will be used when the (Financial) market is in stable conditions.
Most traders will use JPY yen as a carry trade as it is popular for low interest rate. Besides, Japanese government does not have intention to strengthen the Yen.
The risk of the Carry Trade is the uncertainty of exchange rate and un-winding. For example, traders will slowly accumulating interest day by day, and push the AUDJPY high for about 6 months. When it is unwinding (reversing the direction), AUDJPY can possibly drop to the original position in a month.
Support and Resistance Strategy
Support and Resistance is probably one of the most important indicator in Forex Trading. As we know, it is impossible for Forex curreny price to move up forever. Forex curreny price tends to swing up and down (either small or big interval). With this characteristics, we can identify support (bottom position) and resistance (top position). If the swing is big enough, there will be a few supports and resistances between the highest and lowest points.
The idea is to buy at the support and sell at the resistance because the price will usually reverse during those levels. Besides using the price of the low and high to form the support and resistance, the most popular indicator to create support/resistance is Fibonacci where it forms the support and resistance at levels 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, 1.27%, 2.618% of the two points (high and low). Other indicators to serve as support/resistance are Pivot Points, Moving Average, etc.
The price action of the support/resistance is probably more important than all other indicators. There is no necessary to use all support/resistance indicators in your trading. You use only the ones that you feel comfortable.
Attractive Hedging Strategy for Forex Trading Using Binary Options
We Forex Traders are all too familiar with the dreaded stop-loss zone and the testing of the breakout point that results in us being shaken out of our trade and forced to choose lower and lower stop-loss points. We get tested to the point of exhaustion of these tiring stop-loss point shake-outs when we re-enter the same breakout point. It is in this dreaded stop-loss zone and encountering stop-loss shake-outs that we often encounter failure in our Forex trading strategies. We know the breakout is most likely to fail below the breakout point, but is there a way to cover ourselves from this failure? The answer lies in using a Binary Options Hedging Strategy.
Hedging using Binary Options shifts the risk from the stop-loss zone to the area above the breakout point, where the prices are more likely to rise and where the breakout is less likely to fail (attributed to the properties of trader momentum). And it is relatively simple to do:
To exemplify a hedging strategy, Trader Smith places a trade of 1 mini lot EURJPY long, when its price crosses his breakout point of $1.36. Should the EURJPY test this breakout point before he exits this trade, Trader Smith will place a $100 binary option trade in the opposite direction. What this does is shift his original breakout point lower, similar to a stop-loss, such that Trader Smith is now profitable as long as a failure of the EURJPY breakout point does not leave Trader Smith’s Forex account with greater than a $70 loss. If Trader Smith incurs more than a $70 loss in his Forex account, then he immediately would exit the EURJPY position.
What this hedging strategy just did is effectively shift the risk of breakout failure from the point below the breakout to the point above the breakout. The nice part about this hedging strategy is that most breakouts are often tested slightly below the breakout point, yet with this hedging strategy we protect ourselves right in the area below the breakout point. The result is that we are then not getting worn out relying on the use of stop-loss points lower and lower than the breakout point, as we all too commonly do as Forex traders. And the best part of this strategy is that the risk has been shifted to the area above the breakout point (our Forex trade must make at least $85 profit in order to cover the binary option loss). So long as the breakout has not failed, we will more than likely cover this hedge. The golden rule that the breakout is most likely to fail below the breakout point has now been hedged against:
Forex Hedging Strategy that guarantee profi
You will need two brokers for this type of strategy:
For the broker that pay interest:
You can use anyone out there.
We all use the same broker because we are very happy with their service. we also get $1 rebate per round lot.
trade 1: buy 1 lot gbpjpy and collect around $22/day
For the broker that does not charge interest:
We all have accounts with this broker and very happy so far. I have account with them since last year.
Not too many brokers out there allow interest free.
You just have to know who to talk to. Be careful, there are lots of scam out there.
Do google search first on the broker or ask referral before open accounts with them.
trade 2: sell 1 lot gbpjpy and pay no interest charge.
The idea is to hold these two positions as long as you can.
We don't care what direction gbpjpy goes. We just make money off the interest, daily.
But you must constantly trade on the interest free broker to make the broker happy.
The broker makes their money on the spread. Since they already loose money for not charging us interest. We need to trade everyday and make even more money. We have a way to this. We call it triple hedging. At the end, everyone is happy :-)
Some of our friends started out small like $1000 on each account.
It does not take long before they deposit more and more money into their accounts.
For the broker that pay interest:
You can use anyone out there.
We all use the same broker because we are very happy with their service. we also get $1 rebate per round lot.
trade 1: buy 1 lot gbpjpy and collect around $22/day
For the broker that does not charge interest:
We all have accounts with this broker and very happy so far. I have account with them since last year.
Not too many brokers out there allow interest free.
You just have to know who to talk to. Be careful, there are lots of scam out there.
Do google search first on the broker or ask referral before open accounts with them.
trade 2: sell 1 lot gbpjpy and pay no interest charge.
The idea is to hold these two positions as long as you can.
We don't care what direction gbpjpy goes. We just make money off the interest, daily.
But you must constantly trade on the interest free broker to make the broker happy.
The broker makes their money on the spread. Since they already loose money for not charging us interest. We need to trade everyday and make even more money. We have a way to this. We call it triple hedging. At the end, everyone is happy :-)
Some of our friends started out small like $1000 on each account.
It does not take long before they deposit more and more money into their accounts.
Forex Hedging Strategies
Trading in the Forex market can provide you with good returns, but it also comes with a fair amount of risk. If you are concerned about the amount of risk that you are taking on trading in the Forex market, there are some strategies that you can use to minimize the risk to your trades. One way to minimize risk is to get involved with hedging strategies.
Forex Hedging
Hedging is a strategy that involves taking a position in the opposite direction of a trade that you’re in. This minimizes the chances of a market reversal hurting you financially. In many cases, this can be done by using a pending order in your trading platform.
For example, if you are in a buy trade in the EUR/JPY pair and you’re worried that the market could reverse, you could place a pending sell order on the same pair. This way, if the market reverses and the price hits the threshold at which you placed the pending order, the market will trigger your order. At that point, the sell order will start making money and you can close out your original buy order. Even if you don’t close out the buy order, the new order will offset any losses that it creates.
Options
Another way to hedge your bets in the Forex market is to take out an option contract. An option contract gives you the chance to buy or sell a currency pair at a certain price, but you don’t have to if you decide against it. To get an option contract, you will have to pay a nominal option fee to the owner of the currency pair that you want to buy or sell. Then if you decide to exercise the contract, you can buy or sell the currency pair at that time. If the currency pair keeps moving in the right direction, you can simply let the option contract expire and you won’t have to worry about it.
Implementing the Strategy
If you plan on hedging in the Forex market, you will need to continually monitor your strategy to make sure that it is working. If you don’t pay attention to your trades, it could end up costing you in the long run. You have to make sure that the option contract is executed at the right time or that your original trade is closed out. Otherwise, you might end up throwing money away because you aren’t paying attention to the market.
Considerations
In some cases, hedging your investments may not be productive. If you have to pay too much for an option premium, the cost may end up eating into your profitability overall. Before you take out any option contracts or use any other hedging methods, make sure that they are truly necessary in that you feel comfortable with them. Otherwise, your edging methods may be counterproductive in the long run. It makes sense to try out any hedging methods that you want to employ on a demo account first, so that you get comfortable with them. Contact a LucrorFX specialist today for consultation.
Forex Hedging
Hedging is a strategy that involves taking a position in the opposite direction of a trade that you’re in. This minimizes the chances of a market reversal hurting you financially. In many cases, this can be done by using a pending order in your trading platform.
For example, if you are in a buy trade in the EUR/JPY pair and you’re worried that the market could reverse, you could place a pending sell order on the same pair. This way, if the market reverses and the price hits the threshold at which you placed the pending order, the market will trigger your order. At that point, the sell order will start making money and you can close out your original buy order. Even if you don’t close out the buy order, the new order will offset any losses that it creates.
Options
Another way to hedge your bets in the Forex market is to take out an option contract. An option contract gives you the chance to buy or sell a currency pair at a certain price, but you don’t have to if you decide against it. To get an option contract, you will have to pay a nominal option fee to the owner of the currency pair that you want to buy or sell. Then if you decide to exercise the contract, you can buy or sell the currency pair at that time. If the currency pair keeps moving in the right direction, you can simply let the option contract expire and you won’t have to worry about it.
Implementing the Strategy
If you plan on hedging in the Forex market, you will need to continually monitor your strategy to make sure that it is working. If you don’t pay attention to your trades, it could end up costing you in the long run. You have to make sure that the option contract is executed at the right time or that your original trade is closed out. Otherwise, you might end up throwing money away because you aren’t paying attention to the market.
Considerations
In some cases, hedging your investments may not be productive. If you have to pay too much for an option premium, the cost may end up eating into your profitability overall. Before you take out any option contracts or use any other hedging methods, make sure that they are truly necessary in that you feel comfortable with them. Otherwise, your edging methods may be counterproductive in the long run. It makes sense to try out any hedging methods that you want to employ on a demo account first, so that you get comfortable with them. Contact a LucrorFX specialist today for consultation.
澳洲联储2012年降息125个基点，2013年决议/纪要安排一览
汇通网12月25日讯澳洲联储(RBA)在2012年四次降息，自年初的4.25%降至当前的3.00%，累计降幅125个基点，其中理由包括龙头产业矿业前景黯淡、铁矿石等大宗商品价格暴跌、通胀回落、GDP/就业/零售等重磅数据不佳、澳元汇率高企打压经济、欧债危机及全球经济复苏前景不明朗等因素。不过，12月18日公布(12月4日决议)的会议纪要显示，极为重要的是，中国出现进一步企稳迹象，这已经帮助支撑关键性大宗商品价格。这是否意味着，澳洲联储在2013年能够暂停降息步伐呢？
2012年四次降息，累计降幅125个基点
| 日期 | 事件 |
| 5月1日 | 澳洲联储宣布降息50基点，至3.75% |
| 6月5日 | 澳洲联储宣布降息25个基点，至3.50% |
| 10月2日 | 澳洲联储宣布降息25个基点，至3.25% |
| 12月4日 | 澳洲联储宣布降息25个基点，至3.00% |
以下为2013年澳洲联储26次重要亮相，其中11次利率决议、11次纪要及4次货币政策声明：
| 日期 | (北京)时间 | 事件 |
| 2013-2-5 | 11:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-2-8 | 8:30:00 | 货币政策声明 |
| 2013-2-19 | 8:30:00 | 公布2月会议纪要 |
| 2013-3-5 | 11:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-3-19 | 8:30:00 | 公布3月会议纪要 |
| 2013-4-2 | 11:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-4-16 | 8:30:00 | 公布4月会议纪要 |
| 2013-5-7 | 11:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-5-10 | 9:30:00 | 货币政策声明 |
| 2013-5-21 | 9:30:00 | 公布5月会议纪要 |
| 2013-6-4 | 12:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-6-18 | 9:30:00 | 公布6月会议纪要 |
| 2013-7-2 | 12:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-7-16 | 9:30:00 | 公布7月会议纪要 |
| 2013-8-6 | 12:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-8-9 | 9:30:00 | 货币政策声明 |
| 2013-8-20 | 9:30:00 | 公布8月会议纪要 |
| 2013-9-3 | 12:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-9-17 | 9:30:00 | 公布9月会议纪要 |
| 2013-10-1 | 12:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-10-15 | 9:30:00 | 公布10月会议纪要 |
| 2013-11-5 | 11:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-11-8 | 8:30:00 | 货币政策声明 |
| 2013-11-19 | 8:30:00 | 公布11月会议纪要 |
| 2013-12-3 | 11:30:00 | 利率决定 |
| 2013-12-17 | 8:30:00 | 公布12月会议纪要 |
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