My Time

Sunday, October 7, 2018

大马华商林国璋:企业家成败看个人思维 抓紧机遇

林国璋: 成功者找方法, 失败者找借口。(马来西亚《南洋商报》)

中新网8月11日电 据马来西亚《南洋商报》报道,马来西亚中华总商会总会长林国璋说,企业家的成功或失败,关键在于个人思维的差异,善于抓紧机遇及克服挑战就能成功。

他说,成功就是在指定的时间内实现梦想,成功者明白规划的重要性,他们有洞察未来趋势的远见,凡事都有清楚的目标,并全力以赴去实现。他们清楚了解事情的先后轻重,并作出妥善的安排,以达致最高的效率。

专注且当机立断

“他们非常专注,只要不符合目标的就当机立断,以免影响成效。”林国璋也是义利集团董事经理,他9日为“巨人的脚步-华商的机遇与挑战”分享会,发表专题演讲时,这么说。

他说,成功者相信意志战胜一切,不论多艰辛的挑战都不轻言放弃,并不懈从挑战和错误中学习改进,寻求成功的方法。“相反地,失败者在困难面前看到的只是障碍,因此抗拒尝试。他们认为,‘不求有功,但求无过’乃明哲保身的作法,却不知成败往往在一念之间。”

成功者积极进取

林国璋指出,成功者积极进取,对人生充满激情、希望与信念。

“他们传递的正能量,可在四周造成一种正面的磁场,提振企业团队的士气,广结善缘,扩大人脉网络。”

他认为,负面态度的表现对难题于事无补,甚至加剧状况,使企业停滞不前。

林国璋指出,成功者在言谈、许诺及设定目标必定经过深思熟虑,并谨守承诺;而轻妄的举动将影响企业和个人形象与信誉。“他们认为人生规划中,最佳的投资是自己,因此随时抱持开放增添的心态,学习进取,为自己累积实力和智慧。”

出生不好无需妄自菲薄

林国璋勉励企业家,不要因为出生不好而妄自菲薄。

他说,本身并非大学生,义利集团也是经历了创业期、发展期、集资期及加强期四大转型阶段,一步一脚印打拼出来。

“我们不能选择出生及家庭背景,有些人没有父母,但这不能代表未来的一切。”

林国璋以通讯系统为例,以前只有生意人才会安装电话,随着时代的改变,如今通讯已成为普遍的事情。他也说,成功的意义不仅是事业上的成功,也应该包括家庭、健康、财富及社会等方面的成就。

Monday, October 1, 2018

翁俊民: 当李文正女婿 是门高深学问

2016年4月10日

Monday, September 17, 2018

What is Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure & How is it Treated?

What is Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure?


Most people in today's society experience a certain and normal amount of doubt related to whether they will succeed in their projects, relationships, or exams. In certain cases, when the fear of failure becomes a part of someone's everyday life, then we can say for that person that he/she suffers from atychiphobia or fear of failure.

The atychiphobia or fear of failure is also termed as Kakorrahaphobia, and also as Kakorraphiophobia. Kakorraphiophobia is a mix of the fear of failure together with the fear of rejection.

Why do individuals with atychiphobia fear dreadfully of failure? That is because individuals with atychiphobia or fear of failure tend to lack confidence in their abilities. Some people that suffer from this phobia have the extreme fear of being laughed at if they fail at something. Other individuals with atychiphobia or fear of failure suffer from it because they fear of taking risks in their lives. People that are diagnosed with atychiphobia or fear of failure often or always have unrealistic expectations and excessive behavior patterns.

Causes of Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure
In the case you or your loved one is diagnosed with atychiphobia or fear of failure, then you can be sure that the phobia did not come on its own. Atychiphobia or fear of failure actually develops after an individual experiences a traumatic or extremely embarassing life event.

But, traumatic or embarassing life events are not always the main cause for developing atychiphobia or fear of failure. It can develop in the early childhood. Children with strict and overly demanding parents, friends and siblings are at big risk to develop atychiphobia or fear of failure.

Sometimes only one small and unimportant failure can cause a child to develop atychiphobia or fear of failure later in its development to adulthood or in the adulthood. A minor failure one experiences leads to negative thoughts and to fear of taking other life challenges.

Once exposed to a minor failure, certain psychological traumas and complexes develop in the child. Those traumas and complexes eventually cause atychiphobia or fear of failure. The fear of failure keeps growing up like a tumor as the child becomes older.

Signs and Symptoms of Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure

There are many signs and symptoms of atychiphobia or fear of failure. It lowers the quality of life of the individuals diagnosed with it. People that suffer from atychiphobia or fear of failure might go so far that they avoid activities and projects that are not likely to have a positive ending.

Individuals that cope with atychiphobia or fear of failure tend to give up on their relationships, work projects and education and everything where a failure might occur. Atychiphobia or fear of failure sufferers are pure perfectionists; they will not participare in any project if they are not 100 percent sure the outcome will be a pure perfection. What is sad about people that suffer from atychiphobia or fear of failure and generally all perfectionists is that they are not aware of the fact that perfection is just an illusion.

Sadly, most of the people that cope with the atychiphobia or fear of failure are in such a measure controlled by their phobia that they give up their job positions and end their relationships. Also, atychiphobia causes its sufferers to sabotage their lives. Individuals with atychiphobia tend to be hypochondriacs, make excuses often, and lie often. That all leads to marriage problems, demotions, and other negative things.

Atychiphobia or fear of failure can also be felt, physically. Thoughts about failure linked to a certain task cause many nights without sleep, headaches, pain in the muscles. People that are atychiphobia sufferers usually are not focused on their tasks and how could they succeed on a certain task, but rather they are focused on failing at a certain task. Instead of spending all their energy to acomplish successfully certain tasks, people with the fear of failure spend their creative energy thinking about failure.

As stated above, atychiphobia or fear of failure causes people to experience physical signs and symptoms such as gastrointestinal problems, nausea, vomiting, tension headaches, sweating, panic attacks, and generalized anxiety. Some people with Atychiphobia also experience twitching and trembling. Signs and symptoms of atychiphobia or fear of failure are the following:
Mental distress and anxiety.
Digestion problems.
Headaches.
Tension in muscles.
Panic attacks which comprises difficulty breathing, sweating, heart skipping a beat, mouth dryness are the symptoms of atychiphobia or fear of failure.

The signs and symptoms mentioned above will occur in most of people with atychiphobia or fear of failure when they are asked to do a certain task or to do something for which they are unsure about the outcome. If the atychiphobia or fear of failure is left untreated, the signs and symptoms of it will become worse and worse over time. Atychiphobia or fear of failure causes the loss of motivation and low self confidence that can lead to depression.

Risk Factors for Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure
The following factors may increase ones' risk of developing atychiphobia or fear of failure:
Genetics can be a risk factor for atychiphobia or fear of failure. If you have a case of a certain phobia running in your family, then you are also at risk of developing that same phobia or any other phobia. If someone in your family fears the height, you could also develop the fear of height. It is said that some phobias are inherited, but mostly they are learned after watching a family member's phobic reaction to certain situations or objects.
People who are more of a sensitive temperament, who are inhibited and more pessimistic, are more prone to develop atychiphobia or fear of failure.

Complications in Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure
It is true, phobias seem funny to most of the people, but to their sufferers, they are not so funny. Rather than being funny to their patients, phobias to them are devastating aspect of life that greatly reduces their life quality. Some of the complications that atychiphobia or fear of failure cause are the following:
Social isolation may be a complication of atychiphobia or fear of failure. Some people tend to avoid certain places and events that they fear of. That all can lead to professional, relationship, and educational issues.
Depression. People that suffer from atychiphobia or fear of failure might also develop depression, which can be devastating.
Substance abuse. Individuals with atychiphobia or fear of failure are more likely to start using certain substances such as drugs and alchol to extreme measure only not to think about their phobias.
Persons that suffer of atychiphobia or fear of failure are more likely to commit suicide.

Tests to Diagnose Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure
Are there laboratory tests available for atychiphobia or fear of failure? No, there are no lab tests for atychiphobia or fear of failure. To be diagnosed with a certained phobia like atychiphobia or fear of failure, you have to undergo a special clinical interview with a psychologist or psychiatrist and meet the clinical criteria to be diagnosed with a phobia. Your psychologist or psychiatrist will conduct a clinical interview with you comprised of certain questions about your symptoms, he/she will also take your medical, social and psychiatric history.


If you meet up with the medical criteria for phobias and other mental issues called Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders issued by the APA or American Psychiatric Association, you are officialy diagnosed with a phobia.

Treatments for Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure

Phobias are real and existent, but there is no proven cause of them. Many professors and psychiatrists think phobias start to develop after an exposure to a certain truamatic event from childhood. To treat atychiphobia or fear of failure, one must be decisive to make a personal change and not let atychiphobia or fear of failure have an impact on his/hers life. A lot of good will, determination and motivation has to be present to overcome atychiphobia or fear of failure. Usually, no medications are prescribed for atychiphobia or fear of failure.

Counseling is, if not the only, the best option to treat and cope with atychiphobia or fear of failure. By talking with a licensed counselor, you can open up to him about your irrational fears and create with your counselor specific methods of coping with your phobia.

You should not let atychiphobia or fear of failure stand in your way to success. It is only an irrational fear you produce that stands in the way of your success. If you want to be successful, but you cope with atychiphobia or fear of failure, it is best for you to pay a visit to the certified counselor to find a way to escape the hell of atychiphobia.

Prevention of Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure

There is no sure way to prevent atychiphobia or fear of failure. If you suffer from atychiphobia or fear of failure, then it might be the real time to visit a psychologist or a psychiatrist. It is especially important to treat atychiphobia or fear of failure if you are a parent, because children can actually "learn" the phobia from their parents.

Coping with Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure

You can cope with atychiphobia or fear of failure. You have to realize that every person, no matter what he or she does, can fail at anything. Failing is just a part of life.

But, if you are so afraid of being a failure, here are a few ways to reduce your fear of failing:
Analyze the outcomes for proper coping. People with atychiphobia fear failure because they do not know what is the outcome of their projects and everything else going to look like. It is recommended to analyze and consider all the potential outcomes and to learn how would you react to any of those outcomes.
Another way to cope is by thinking positively. Thinking positively about outcomes greatly reduces your atychiphobia or fear of failure.
Have a "Plan B" is a good coping method. If you fail at your "Plan A," it does not mean you are the biggest failure in the world and you should know that you always should have a "Plan B" if you fail at something. There is a great possibility you will eventually succeed with the "Plan B."

Recovery Period/Healing Time for Atychiphobia or Fear of Failure

Your recovery period/healing time from a atychiphobia or fear of failure and all the distress it caused you depends entirely upon you. If you want to fully recover from a phobia like atychiphobia or fear of failure and all the anxiety and panic it had caused you, consult with your family doctor or psychiatrist on a regular basis.

Sunday, March 8, 2015

心态越好,命运会越来越好!

心态表示一个人的精神状态,只要有良好的心态,你就能每天保持饱满的心情。精神打起来,好运自然来。记住做任何事情一定要有积极的心态,一旦失去他,就跳出去,要学会调整心态, 有良好的心态工作就会有方向,人只要不失去方向就不会失去自己。

心态的好坏,在于平常的及时调整和修炼并形成习惯。人活在世上,凡事都要看开点,看远点,看淡点,心胸要豁达些、大度些,相信“任何事情的发生必有利于我、”且“办法总比困难多”,也就没有流不出的水和搬不动的山,更没有钻不出的窟窿及结不成的缘。

人活的快乐,就必须要有一个好心态。有位哲人说得好,“既然现实无法改变,那么只有变自己。”改变自己就是调整好自己的心态。

如何调整好自己的心态?

一、是欲望不要太高。欲望无止境,欲望越高,一旦不能得到满足,形成的反差就越大,心态就越容易失衡。

二、是攀比思想不能太重。如果盲目攀比,就会“人比人,气死人。”如果跟下岗工人比待遇,跟农民兄弟比收入,跟先进人物比贡献,心态就能平衡,怨气就自然消了。

三、是要学会忘记。不要对过去的事耿耿于怀,过去了的事就让它过去,这样才会少去许多烦恼,心情才能舒畅。

每个人都有一套属于自我的生活理念,有的人生活的很快乐,有的人却对生活出奇的失望,归根结底是心态的问题。生活中总是会出现很多突如其来的灾难,会让人突然陷入一种茫然、焦急、狂躁的情绪之中,更有甚者对生命的绝望。

不难看出,随着社会的进步,竞争的激烈,让人们的各种压力增大,如果当这种压力超过了某种负荷能力的时候,就会让人出现偏激情绪,这样带来的后果是无法想象的,如果人能在适当的阶段给自己找一个出口,会逐渐排除这样的精神压力,让你走向更辉煌的道路。

我们应该怎么减轻这样的负面情绪呢?

第一:学会让自己安静,把思维沉浸下来,慢慢降低对事物的欲望。把自我经常归零,每天都是新的起点,没有年龄的限制,只要你对事物的欲望适当的降低,会赢得更多的求胜机会。(所谓退一步海阔天空)

第二:学会关爱自己。

只有多关爱自己,才能有更多的能量去关爱他人,如果你有足够的能力,就要尽量帮助你能帮助的人,那样你得到的就是几份快乐,多帮助他人,善待自己,也是一种减压的方式。

第三:遇到心情烦躁的情况的时候,你喝一杯白水,放一曲舒缓的轻音乐,闭眼,回味身边的人与事,对新的未来可以慢慢的输理,即是一种休息,也是一种冷静的前进思考。

第四:多和自己竞争

没有必要嫉妒别人,也没必要羡慕别人。很多人都是由于羡慕别人,而始终把自己当成旁观者,越是这样,越是会把自己掉进一个深渊。你要相信,只要你去做,你也可以的。为自己的每一次进步而开心(事是不分大与小的,复杂的事情简单做,简单的事情认真做,认真的事情反复做,争取做到最好)

第五:广泛阅读。

阅读实际就是一个吸收养料的过程,现代人面临激烈的竞争,复杂的人际关系,为了让自己不至于在某些场合尴尬,可以进行广泛的阅读,让自己的头脑充实也是一种减压的方式,人有时候是这样的,肚子里空空的时候会自然的焦急,这就对了,正是你的求知欲在呼喊你,要活着就需要这样的养分。

第六:不论在任何条件下,自己不能看不起自己。

哪怕全世界都不相信你,看不起你,你一定要相信你自己,因为我相信一句话,如果你喜欢上了你自己,那么就会有更多的人喜欢你,如果你想自己是什么样的人,只要你想,努力去实现,就会的!(很多人为什么没实现,就是没毅力)

第七:学会调整情绪,尽量往好处想。

很多人遇到一些事情的时候,就急的象热锅上的蚂蚁,本来可以很好解决的问题,正是因为情绪的把握不好,让简单的事情复杂化,让复杂的事情更难.其实只要把握好事情的关键,把每个细节处理的得贴就会游刃有余.遇到棘手的事情,冷静点,然后想如何才能把它做好,你越往好处想,心就越开,越往坏处想,心就越窄!

第八:珍惜身边的人。

用语方面尽量不伤害,哪怕遇到你不喜欢的人,你尽量迂回,找理由离开也不要肆意伤害,这样不仅让自己心情太坏,也让场面更尴尬.珍惜现在身边的一切。

第九:热爱生命。

每天吸收新的养料,每天要有不同的思维.多学会换位思考,尽量找新的事物满足对世界的新奇感,神秘感。

第十:只有用真心,用爱,用人格去面对你的生活,你的人生才会更精彩!

每天保持一份乐观的心态,如果遇到烦心事,要学会哄自己开心,让自己坚强自信,所以你想保持良好的心态,唯一可行的办法是:怀着感恩的心去看世界,用心去看世界,不计较得失,学会发现身边所有令人感动的事情。

别想太多……

别想太多,

我们只有一次生命。
闭上了眼睛,
就会再也看不到光明。
让烦恼与风去远行;
让痛苦陪云去流浪。
哼一曲好歌,
也许,心情,就会轻松了许多......

别想太多,
人生的不如意会有许多。
把流言,
当成嘴角的一缕微笑。
把打击,
当做奔跑时需要跃过的台阶。
虽然不是阿Q,
但有些阿Q精神确实挺好。
“退一步海阔天空”,
何处没有“柳暗花明又一村”?

别想太多,
那些爱过的,正爱的,
哭过的,笑过的,毕竟都是生活。
在经历中成长,
在成长中成熟。
挫折,沧桑,
何尝不是一笔财富?
用浅笑回眸,
去解读风花雪月。
用宽容理解,
去诠释真诚祝福。
原来爱与恨,也可以云淡风轻。

别想太多。
生命很重,所以生活要轻;
生命很脆弱,所以心灵要坚强。
追求的过程,
从来就需要千回百转。
努力就会有希望,
阳光总会在正前方。
做自己能做到事,
过自己能过的生活。
如此,就好,
很多时候,简单,就是快乐也是幸福。

别想太多,
人活着就很美好。
就一辈子,活一次,
别让自己活得太累。
让好的心态,平衡的心理,
还有那美好的心情陪伴着每一天。
知足一些,
快乐就会多出许多。

别想太多,
活出的滋味就会不一样。
明天的一切虽然不可知,
但,沿途,你会遇到许多美丽的风景!

改变人生,只需比别人多付出 2%

多2%的自信,建立个人品牌
自卑的人往往容易接受别人对他的低估评价,与他人比较时,也喜欢拿自己的短处与别人相比,越比越觉得自己不如别人。其实,你需要的只是多拿出2%的自信展现舍我其谁的霸气,充分展示自己的专长和个性。想建立自我品牌,要先了解自己的独特性,然后认真地培养,持续地练习,让别人一看到你,就会想到你的与众不同。勇敢走自己的路,别人自然会因你的独特而珍惜你。

多2%的主动,更有闯劲
“处境逼我行动”与“我要主动出击”两者的表面行为一样,但动机不同,做事的感觉完全不一样。能够主动提出问题,询问别人意见,代表你有解决问题的意愿,还有处理问题的行动力,这是可以一生受用的能力。不要埋怨人生多艰难,将主动当成人生信条来执行,就能从生活与工作中找到更多快乐,事业也肯定会比那些“抽一鞭子走一步”的人发展得更好。

多2%的观察,发现更多机遇
我们有90%的刺激来自视觉,如果对周围的事物更多地观察,就会注意到更多细节,而细节往往能左右成败。例如去拜访客户的时候,可以观察客户办公室的摆设。如果桌上有家庭合照,说明他是一个重家庭观念的人,当你询问其家庭、孩子的情况,对方一定乐于谈起;如果在桌上显眼的地方摆放的是旅游纪念品,说明客户酷爱旅游,这时我们可以将话题带入旅游或者客户去过的地方的风土人情,让客户有机会大谈自己的游历,两人的距离就很容易拉近。只要善于观察,就能见微知著,机遇就存在于生活的细节中,观察细节,发现机遇,成功也许很简单!

多2%的谦逊,走得更远
谦逊与自信并不是对立的,多数情况下需要把握好尺度。如果因为取得了些许成就成为关注焦点后,就变得飘飘然,只会让你停止了学习的脚步,无法为自己的前进提供新能量,接下来的只能是停滞或者倒退。无论你处于什么样的位置,从事什么样的工作,都别忘了“谦受益,满招损”,谦逊是为了积蓄能量,让我们在成功的路上走得更远!

人生就像一场马拉松,顺境时积蓄好能量,练好基本功,逆境时就有力量向上爬。只需要比人多2%的努力,就能成为赢家,为什么不尝试一下呢?

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

NeraTel



This is a stock which I got in at 40.5c a share some time back. This was after the failed take over bid by ST Engineering. I didn't do much research on this company on my own. Neither did I have any experience with it. Instead, I relied on some advice by a very good friend who has been a shareholder for years.

This is a net cash company and has a record of paying consistent and meaningful dividends. Its last payout was 4c a share with an EPS of 5c. At today's closing price of 61c, we are looking at a dividend yield of 6.56% which is very decent. With its recurring revenue streams, dividends are probably sustainable.

So, I bought more shares of NeraTel as its share price retreated from a high of 69.5c. With buy prices of 60c to 63c, the dividend yields are from 6.35% to 6.67%. Any further weakness and a possible test of the rising 200d MA (approximating 57.5c now) for support would see me increasing my long exposure.

Certainly, I cannot tell how share prices will move tomorrow. So, I cannot tell if my additional investments made recently will result in paper losses but I can tell if I have made relatively sound decisions.

By looking at charts, I can tell where supports are expected to be found. So, I can tell where I might be adding to my long positions, given the chance.

Some things we know. Some things we don't.

I know, for sure, that we should have a plan and we should stick to it.

6 Quick Things I Learned from NeraTel’s AGM 2014

Like most normal days, I love to do my work at Costa Coffee – a nice, cosy place where I can concentrate on my research. On one such visit, while I was waiting to purchase my favourite Green Tea Creamy Cooler, I couldn’t help but notice four big letters on the payment terminal by the cashier counter. The word was “NERA” and I vaguely remembered always seeing this name at most payment systems in Singapore. Being curious, I googled “nera” to check if it was a company listed on any particular stock exchange, and yes, it was – NeraTel was listed right here on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX).
Nera Telecommunications Limited (SGX: N01) operates in 16 countries – including Singapore, Malaysia, China, India, Australia, Morocco and Norway – and offers a range of products and services in the areas of wireless infrastructure networks, satellite communications, network infrastructure and payment solutions. Of these business areas, NeraTel’s payment solutions business was the one that piqued my interest the most as I delved deeper into the company (you’ll soon find out why below).
As is our advice that we best attend the AGMs of the companies we invest in, I attended NeraTel’s most recent AGM in April looking for information that might give me an edge in my analysis of the company and I wasn’t disappointed to say the least.
So here are six  quick things I learned from NeraTel’s AGM 2014:

1) NeraTel is a High Dividend-paying Company

Investors, in general, love high dividend stocks and NeraTel fits the bill.
neratel-dividend-payout-ratio
Except for 2011, NeraTel has a dividend payout ratio of 90% or higher from 2007 till now.
neratel-dividend-yield
If you have bought NeraTel at any time from 2007-2013, you would have easily got a dividend yield of more than 8%. In comparison, the average dividend yield for the 30 component stocks in the STI over the last ten years is approximately 3%.

2) NeraTel’s Payment Solutions Business Segment is Growing

NeraTel’s payment solutions business segment (which account 21% of total revenue) is growing at 20%-30% per annum for the past 3 years. The reason payment solutions has been growing so fast is due to three things:
  • a rise in debit and credit card spending
  • government initiatives to go cashless
  • banks outsourcing their point-of-sale infrastructure in order to focus on their core business activities.
When it comes to payment solutions, NeraTel offers their clients two options:
  • NeraTel sells the point-of-sale (POS) terminals to their client and charges them recurring maintenance fees and percentage fees for every transaction made
  • NeraTel leases the POS terminals to the client and charges them recurring rental fees, maintenance fees, and percentage transaction fees for every transaction made.
Either way NeraTel always nets a stream of stable, recurring revenue month after month, year after year. A company that has stable, recurring revenues that is highly predictable is hugely attractive to investors.

3) NeraTel is Increasing its Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)

As I mentioned above, companies with high, stable recurring revenues are hugely attractive to investors because of the predictability in their earnings. Because of that, the stock prices of these companies tend to trade at a premium and a higher P/E.
Currently, 21% of NeraTel’s revenue is recurring in nature and comes primarily from their payment solutions business. The company’s CAPEX is being used to increase the number of POS terminals in anticipation of expanding their payment solutions market share.
If the plan works out, NeraTel should see its overall revenue increase and, more importantly, theproportion of their recurring revenue as well, and we could see the stock slowly trading higher and higher.

4) NeraTel’s Payment Solutions are Easy to Scale

NeraTel’s POS terminals are all running on one base software they created themselves. It is extremely easy for the business to scale – they just need to add more POS terminals which connects to the same base software regardless of where the POS terminal is situated.
This means NeraTel can expand into different countries with the same set of terminals using the same software without having to create anything anew – saving a lot of time and money. This ease of expansion means the company can scale very quickly and potentially increase their revenue significantly over the next few years.

5) NeraTel’s POS Terminals Accept Both EZ-Link and NETS

NeraTel’s POS terminals in Singapore are the only ones that accept payment from both EZ-Link and NETS. Because of this convenience, we could see more merchants choose NeraTel over their competitors so as to provide more easy payment options for shoppers.
This slight competitive advantage could mean a lot to NeraTel in the long run especially if they establish themselves as the dominant player in the industry in Singapore.

6) Capital Restructuring is Highly Unlikely as of Now

A company like NeraTel is a good bet to undergo capital restructuring and include more debt financing in its capital structure because:
  • Its revenue streams are increasingly becoming recurring in nature
  • It has zero debt on its balance sheet
Debt financing has its advantages: a company can drastically increase its returns and ROE by using other people’s money (debt) to grow the business rather than using their own (equity). And as I wrote previously, a company with a higher ROE has a higher sustainable growth rate. But taking on too much debt can be risky. However for companies with stable, recurring revenues, the risk and debt obligations are more easily managed. Hence, NeraTel’s high potential to undergo a capital restructuring.
At the moment though, NeraTel is highly unlikely to do so because the company currently requires $20-$30 million in working capital and they cannot afford the capital reduction that a capital restructuring would bring.
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Tuesday, February 25, 2014

牽一髮 動全身

今時興講環球一體化,不單經濟如是,外貿如是,就算金融市場也如是。

這個環球市場一體化,不是指美股升跌會影響到港股升跌這麼簡單,而是,金、股、匯、債、大宗商品市場等,均是牽一髮而動全身,又或窺一市而可知他市。

今周為重要轉捩點

今周會是環球金融市場一體化的重要轉捩點,一些市場於今周升跌,或可以啟示未來數月環球金融市場動的方向。

市場的價位,不是無端自自作業,是有前世,始有今生。環球市場的太爺,是美國金融海嘯帶來的下跌,跟着有伯南克阿媽派銀紙去撑市,再接着是伯南克於2013年5月底謂退出買債,而帶來環球市跌,跌到2013年6、7月間市回穩(在以下圖中均叫A),回穩原因或是市場認為不買債並不代表抽回資金,市場資金仍夠炒賣用,這是筆者的解釋,如不認同,請另找解釋好了。






市場對美儲局不再買債有叫好有叫罵,無論如何,市場在一月時有個擔心,美儲局在全不買債後,何時加息(抽水),故環球市又跌,但到耶倫於二月初作了第一次國會聽證後,市場又認為耶倫真的搬了龍門,真的有排不會加息,故環球市又升了回來,對以上發展,筆者於2013年11月至12月期間,曾有多篇文章分析,並於前周將有關文章組織起來重刊一次。筆者這些舊文,亦是筆者估測今後三、五、七、十年,環球市場的基調,就是美國真會持久低息,有否估錯,市場會告訴我們。

假如美國真的持久低息三、五、七、十年,環球市場將如何?以下列連環圖作說明。這個低息估測的破壞王是通脹,這個我估不了,要走著瞧。

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

向索羅斯學習

根據《金融時報》一篇報道,快84歲的索羅斯,旗下量子基金最近又再登上全球最賺錢的對沖基金寶座。投資市場本來應該是長江後浪推前浪,但這名以哲學家自居的老炒家,成功之處其實不在於他又多了50億美元、對沖基金的排名高低,抑或最新的投資部署,而是他真真正正清楚所謂經濟學家與投資專家之別。
老實說,索羅斯本人都有一大堆理論,並不下於經濟學家,但他可以理解箇中奧妙。作為投資者,要理解到無論人與市場,兩者都是存在不確定性,並非完全一致、絕對理性,要把不確定性引伸到偏差,遂構成一個投資賺錢的機會。

趁市場有偏差賺錢
科學家求真的精神在於透過不斷進行實驗,某程度上,投資者的求真精神是透過操作,亦即透過交易,追求操作上的成功,這就等於用市場成功驗證或賺錢。換句話說,央行或財金官員無論說話有幾大份量,表情如何具備說服力,他們自以為「真實」、「理性」的推測,其實都是靠一批市場投資者或炒家代其驗證。成功的投資者經常說,要懂得相反理論;即大批人一面倒看好時,就要造淡,或相反之;同樣道理,用在追求操作成功的主旨下,真正投資者的哲學就要假設主流意見是錯誤,並用投資行動以證明他們真真正正錯得很。
索羅斯擅長從市場誤區中尋找投資機會,但要翻版贏得極漂亮的英鎊一役,不經不覺原來也要等足20年,才得以在日圓再大展身手。他看準機會才出擊,而且每逢出手都不會是雞仔注,去年第四季加碼沽空標普500指數,上月又表示一場由中國帶來的危機正在迫近。只是,不要忘記,看見的沽空可能只屬對沖動作。上世紀八十年代初,他亦曾因買美債損手,87年空日股買美股,在黑色星期一股災中輸鑊甘。
市場投資工具多,大戶真正部署未必可一時三刻百分百捕足,學習索羅斯看事物的眼光,也許會較跟足手影更實際。

Thursday, February 13, 2014

美股隨時曲終人散

第23個太陽黑子周期在2000年中見頂,美股隨即見頂回落,證明兩者關係密切。
而第24個太陽黑子周期在2013年的年尾見頂,美國由2009年3月開始的升浪,極有可能曲終人散,見附圖。  

與太陽黑子走勢背馳

值得注意的有以下兩點:
第一,美股2013年的頂部比2000年高,但第24個太陽黑子周期的黑子數目明顯比上一個周期低,這是重要的背馳訊號,不利美股走勢。
第二,由於太陽黑子數目逐漸減少,美國眾多太空料學家估計可能進入「小冰河時期」,氣溫可能下降,而環球經濟也可能陷入衰退,詳細內容可見筆者2013年1月22日在個人微博發表的《小冰河時期》(http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_ae7cc7940101g52n.html)。
昨日本報的港聞版報道:「寒流寒意寒入心,本港氣溫昨再『走下坡』,迎來1996年後最冷的一個2月天,最低氣溫僅7.5℃。有安老事務委員會成員憶起相隔18年前的低溫2月,當年襲港的寒流持續六周,多達150名長者因低溫死亡,催生平安鐘服務,相信現時不會重演當年慘況。」
最近環球氣溫普遍下跌,「小冰河時期」是否來臨,值得留意。
2014年2月7日至2月28日是今年第一個「水星逆行」周期,投資者必須提高警覺。根據過往經驗,港股的股災多數在「水星逆行」期間發生,例如:(1)恒生指數在1973年3月4日至3月27日下跌32.64%;(2)1974年6月17日至7月12日,恒指下跌27.22%;(3)1987年10月16日至11月6日,恒指下跌44.13%;(4)1989年5月12日至6月5日,恒指下跌36.14%。「水星逆行」期間不一定有股災,但金融市場通常可能出現較大的變動。
因此,「水星逆行」期間必須留意港股的變化,以免招致損失。  

買恒指認沽期權對沖

而個股分析方面,銀河娛樂(027)在2014年1月20日創出歷史新高84.50元,當日以十字星形態見頂回落,之後的走勢轉弱,可能形成最可靠的轉向形態——頭肩頂。倘若跌破頸線,量度下跌目標為45.70元。
總結:環球股市2009年3月展開的大反彈已屆尾聲,投資者必須提高警覺,並做好防風措施,持有較多股票者,可考慮買入2月份恒指21600認沽期權,以減低持倉風險。  

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

乌龟哲学:生活在赢,不在快

有一天,乌龟与猴子一起酿酒,准备拿到集市上去卖。

但猴子的动作很快,一天过去后,猴子已经开始喝自己酿出来的酒,而乌龟却还在慢腾腾的造,于是,猴子开始嘲笑乌龟并将自己酿出来的酒拿到集市上去卖。

只是酒的味道又酸又涩,一坛也卖不出去,猴子只好垂头丧气的回到家中。而此时,乌龟的酒才刚刚酿好,酒香扑鼻,还没有等乌龟拿到市集上,就已被闻香而至的酒客买得一干二净了。

我们现在正身处一个电子化的社会,似乎一切都追求效率,愈快愈好。

于是,快餐文化大行其道,在任何地方都以速度的提升作为发展与进步的标志。而特征慢腾腾的乌龟,也被许多人看成是落伍的动物。

但这个问题,实际上并不是今天才出现的,在数千年前的古希腊就已经出现了。

记得当时有一位著名的寓言作家——伊索先生,就曾在其著作中,针对此问题说出过这样一个有趣的寓
言:

有一天早晨,乌龟与兔子争论起一个问题——究竟谁跑得更快一些?

兔子对这个问题不屑一顾,兔子肯定比乌龟跑得快啦!这还是需要争论的事实吗?但乌龟却不服气,一定要进行一场公正与公平的比赛,才能够作出最终的结论。

于是,乌龟与兔子约定,在某一天进行一场龟兔赛跑。

四周的动物都非常惊奇,难道乌龟有什么致胜的法宝吗?

当这一天来临之时,赛场周围十分热闹,各种动物都跑来了。而兔子则得意洋洋的跑了起来,果然,过不了几分钟,就将慢腾腾的乌龟落得远远的,兔子不禁高兴起来,又蹦又跳,到后来,觉得有些累了,就躺在路旁的草丛中休息起来,心中还想,乌龟离自己有这么远,自己躺一会再起来跑都可以将它落得远远的哩!

哪知道兔子一觉睡下去便不知时间的长短了,而乌龟就一直努力爬着,虽然慢腾腾却渐渐爬到兔子的身边,但此时兔子还在睡大觉。一步又一步,乌龟虽然花费了全身的气力,终于爬过了终点,但兔子呢?还在路旁睡觉。

这是敝乌龟在博阅群书后(乌龟也会看书,哈,有点不好意思了),所看到第一个关于乌龟慢腾腾行为方式的正面报道。

事实上,乌龟确实爬得慢,但没关系,只要一直在爬就完全可以爬到胜利的终点。

你在森林中看见过一只急匆匆,或者怒气冲天的乌龟吗?包管你没有看见过。

因为在乌龟的世界中,从来都是有规有矩,不紧不慢的,天大的事情,敝龟们都是以一种轻松自然的方式去处理,也许在谈笑间,事情就解决了。

乌龟们能成为一种长寿的动物,也肯定与这种恬静自然的生活态度有关。

相反,作为万物之灵的人类却没有那么放松了。

也许只是一件很小的事情,在人类的眼中,却变成了大事情,有时候,我都会怀疑,人类的眼睛是否由一个放大镜所组成的。

记得在前不久,敝乌龟就曾遇到这样一件事。

那天正是人头涌涌的上班时分,我正在乘坐地铁(不好意思,乌龟也会坐地铁,而且总是逃票),突然之间,从地面入口处,急步冲过来一位小姐,她满头冒汗,气喘嘘嘘,一边跑,一边还不断望着手表上的指针。从那种慌乱的神情中,一眼就可以看出,她肯定是一个快要迟到的上班族,我也在旁边默默祈祷,希望她能够赶上地铁,准时到达而不会被老板责骂。

但哪知道,就当她刚走到闸口的时候,却怎么也找不到月票,在人流中,那种焦急的神情十分显眼。

在短短的几分钟里,她几乎翻遍了口袋,但一无所获。望一下手表的时间后,她带着一种几乎是绝望的神情,转身向后,急步冲去。

显然,她忘记带钱包了。在城市中,这是一个常见的现象,相信有许多人都有类似的经历。

也许在女孩中,她确实跑得很快、反应灵敏,也善于赶时间,相信这都是当代城市中白领女性的重要特征。

但如果一开始就有错误,那么,跑得愈快,就错得愈远。

正如一个教练所说的那样,无论你跑得有多快,只要方向错误,最终的结果还是失败。

人世间其他事也是如此,无论身边的变化有多快,请记住一个基本的道理:生活在赢,不在快。

快快动脑
面对愈来愈快的生活节奏,人类的身心也被迫随着加快,当情况达到了难以忍受的程度时,你会怎样做呢?

在这里,有两个答案供你选择:

(1)不管三七二十一,拚命改变自己来适应眼前愈来愈快的节奏,努力使自己不成为落伍者。

(2)努力使自己保持着一种平和的心态,以冷静的态度来面对身边的各种变化,哪怕成为落伍者,也在所不惜。

如果答案是(1)请在空格上加一分。如果答案是(2)则不需加