With Mr. Market currently being so manic-depressive and seeing only bad days ahead, it is important to remember that he is there to serve you, not to instruct you.
The pervasiveness of his mood swings has the ability to affect all but those who inherently understand the true value of a business. Market watchers and pundits who are paid to say something about the market everyday will come up with a myriad of reasons why Mr. Market is pessimistic, and a dearth of bad news will continually stream in to reinforce this perception.
Thus, the resultant effect is a massive sell off by hedge funds and mutual funds because they too are affected by the fear and panic which is spread by Mr. Market. Oh, what mischief this man can do ! Sometimes, when I glance at the market, I can almost see Mr. Market’s evil face grinning at me as he waves his hands over the market, causing millions to panic and dump their holdings at the lowest possible price (no, I am not schizophrenic, I am just using a metaphor !). This hardens my resolve not to listen to him but to focus on the true worth of the companies I hold.A falling market is the ultimate test for a value investor. It is mentioned in value investing books that you never know if the companies you pick have the ability to survive Mr. Market’s manic mood swings, and there is no way to know if your portfolio is sound until it is tested by fire. Thus, when I view the current market situation, I see myself facing the “exam” which I have been “studying” for these past 18 months. All the research, reading, analysis and thinking has gone into identifying good companies selling at a fraction of their true worth; but now the time has come to see if the buy-and-hold strategy will ultimately win over the “fast profit” strategy of churning your portfolio.With this in mind, I would like to reiterate to readers that the goal of sound and intelligent investing is not for quick gains or huge profits. If you want those, please go to the nearest 4-D or Toto booth, put down a few dollars; then hope and pray for yourself to strike the lottery !
In fact, the most important tenet for value investing should be capital preservation. With this, I mean that one should invest with such a wide margin of safety that losses are largely minimized, while gains are almost certainly assured. Too many people throw their money into the market with only the upside in mind; they never think of the potential LOSS they may face, and always end up shocked and stunned when the market turns against them.It is also prudent to note that one can actually make a lot of money by avoiding losses. What do I mean by this ? It simply means you don’t go out there and take unnecessary risks, like buying into a company you don’t understand, subscribing for IPOs (which subsequently tank) or chasing a company’s share price just because it has just rallied. Please note that avoiding such mistakes can actually make you much richer even if you do NOT know a thing about value investing; as compared to people who keep chasing the next hot tip, or buy at the peak of a bull market, or simply buy indiscriminately. This may sound quite incredible, but one can actually compound their money better in a bank (earning a paltry 0.25% interest per annum for POSB) than letting the market eat up their money through poor judgement and bad decisions.To conclude, I would say that for one to really practice value investing or go down the path of value investing, one has to change one’s mindset radically.
Most investment professionals or fund managers will preach about how their fund has generated the highest returns or how a particular sector is “hot” or “growing at an exponential rate”.
Just try asking them about capital preservation and they will become evasive and uncomfortable, and tell you that “in investing, there are always risks, so we must assess if you are high, medium or low risk; so that we can tailor the portfolio to suit your needs”. What I say is: investing is only risky if you do not have capital preservation in mind, and fund managers who invest only thinking of gains are not doing their clients a favour. In order for an investor to do well in the long-run (yes, not short-term !), one has to make capital preservation the central concept in one’s investment philosophy.
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