My Time

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Frosty February For Home Sales

Where Have All The Buyers Gone? URA released yesterday monthly price and sales data of new residential units sold in the month of February which continued to reaffirm our view on the uncertainty in the physical property market, translating to caution on the part of both developers and buyers, leading to overall soft sales of new units by developers, with new sales declining 47% m-o-m from 320 units in January to an anaemic 170 units in February.

Price Levels Generally Maintained. Prices, however, were generally maintained at previous levels for now though given the small volume of sales for the month, this may not be indicative of the overall pricing trend – as developers that have booked good sales in the past year and have improved their balance sheet could have the luxury of maintaining their asking prices for the moment.

Playing The Waiting Game. With the economic uncertainty arising from sub-prime concerns still weighing down sentiment in the property market, leaving both developers and buyers waiting on the sidelines for the near-term, no catalyst is in sight. The developers with more diversified landbanks and stronger balance sheets are at an advantage, as they can play this waiting game for longer – maintaining asking price levels while timing any new launches to cater to the market segment where demand is relatively strongest. Buyers, on the other hand, sensing a potential dip in prices, are also waiting and holding out from committing to any purchases.

With the waiting game likely to be played out for at least another quarter, we maintain our Neutral stance on the Residential Property Sector, since overall economic fundamentals for Singapore remain healthy in the medium-term.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Stagflation

Singapore experienced stagflation in the 70s, same period as USA.

Stagflation in the 1970s
The term "stagflation" -- an economic condition of both continuing inflation and stagnant business activity, together with an increasing unemployment rate -- described the new economic malaise. Inflation seemed to feed on itself. People began to expect continuous increases in the price of goods, so they bought more. This increased demand pushed up prices, leading to demands for higher wages, which pushed
prices higher still in a continuing upward spiral. Labor contracts increasingly came to include automatic cost-of-living clauses, and the government began to peg some payments, such as those for Social Security, to the Consumer Price Index, the best-known gauge of inflation. While these practices helped workers and retirees cope
with inflation, they perpetuated inflation. The government's ever-rising need for funds swelled the budget deficit and led to greater government borrowing, which in turn pushed up interest rates and increased costs for businesses and consumers even further. With energy costs and interest rates high, business investment languished
and unemployment rose to uncomfortable levels.

In desperation, President Jimmy Carter (1977-1981) tried to combat economic weakness and unemployment by increasing government spending, and he established voluntary wage and price guidelines to control inflation. Both were largely unsuccessful. A perhaps more successful but less dramatic attack on inflation involved the "deregulation" of numerous industries, including airlines, trucking, and railroads.
These industries had been tightly regulated, with government controlling routes and fares. Support for deregulation continued beyond the Carter administration. In the 1980s, the government relaxed controls on bank interest rates and long-distance telephone service, and in the 1990s it moved to ease regulation of local
telephone service.

But the most important element in the war against inflation was the Federal Reserve Board, which clamped down hard on the money supply beginning in 1979. By refusing to supply all the money an inflation-ravaged economy wanted, the Fed caused interest rates to rise. As a result, consumer spending and business borrowing slowed abruptly. The economy soon fell into a deep recession.

What's more frightening inflation or recession?
The answer, of course, is both. Accelerating prices and a slow- or no-growth economy is a killer combo that's been called "stagflation" since the 1960s.

Folks of a certain age might remember the stagflation which dominated the US economy in the 1970s. It was a gloomy time when energy prices (and gasoline lines) dominated the news; when whole industries slumped at the same time, and when job losses and price hikes seemed to travel in tandem.

Now, some Federal Reserve-watchers are suggesting we're facing it again.

Remarks in the Fed's latest policy statement "just scream stagflation" writes investment blogger Tim Iacono. The word "stagflation" was mentioned some 2,480 times in recent blog postings, according to online monitor Technorati.com.

It's easy to see where the concerns come from. On the recession side, there's the housing slump, the worsening mortgage market, the continued loss of jobs to lower-paid workers in developing countries and -- as Circuit City recently proved with 3,400 pay-related layoffs -- right here at home. Pay raises have been blah for several years running. If you're looking for inflation signs, you need look no further than February's 1.3 percent gain in producer prices and 0.4 percent rise in consumer prices. But you can look at the accelerating price of manufacturing supplies reported by companies across many industries in the Institute for Supply Management. Or just check what you're paying for healthcare, college tuition, gasoline, or that monthly mortgage.

These economic trends are worrisome, though there are some reasons not to fear a recurrence of the 70s. Interest rates are starting much lower, and the Fed's fear of inflation borders on paranoia. Slow wage growth and jobs should hold prices down, too. The 1970s forces that really pushed markets over the top -- an oil embargo and a family's cornering of the silver market -- aren't in evidence now, and even
homeowners who have seen home prices slide recently are still sitting on a lot of equity. The easy-money credit markets could keep consumers bolstering demand. But, things do fall apart in ever-different ways, so it makes sense to position yourself for "all of the above" without going overboard. Here are some pointers:

Don't go overboard. Overboard behaviors include selling all of your stocks, bonds, and your house and putting the money into gold, palladium, art, or any other commodity that doesn't pay dividends or interest or have earnings.

Worry about yourself first. Collectively, consumers do need to continue spending to keep the economy on the move. But it's probably better for your own finances to shirk this responsibility for a while. Reign in spending and start paying off credit card balances and other bills in the biggest chunks possible.

Organize your debts. Stagflation, the last time around, saw interest rates rising to usurious levels. Use the time you have now to lock in decent fixed-rate mortgages, transfer balances to low-rate cards, or use other loan products on the market to keep your debts manageable and stable.

Stay invested and diversified. Stocks may not be great every year, but as long-term places to keep money, they beat bonds, gold, and shoe boxes all to heck. Keep your retirement fund in a mix of stocks, foreign stocks, bonds, and more. Even if bad times come, spreading your money around will moderate the impact.

Keep an inflation kicker. Mining stocks, inflation bonds, real estate investment funds, natural resources mutual funds all have pros and cons, but you'll be happy with any of them if we undergo a period of runaway inflation. Keep a corner of your portfolio reserved for this.
Typically, that's no more than 10 percent.

Invest in yourself. You may not be able to count on your salary going up in tandem with the costs of living. But the right computer, management, or language course could position you for a better (and better-paying) job.

Save money. The worst part of stagflation is that it makes it harder and harder to save any money. The more cash you have to call upon in an emergency, the less desperate or destitute you'll be.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Did Monday mark the bottom of the stock market's correction that began last fall?

Tuesday's explosive rally surely gives ammunition to those who say, "Yes." By rallying more than 400 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday turned in the biggest percentage gain in over five years.

But this correction has seen explosive rallies before that turned out not to mark the final bottom. So it behooves us to dig deeper.
I turn first to investment newsletter sentiment. A contrarian analysis of that data supports the notion that Monday was the end of the correction, since in recent sessions enough editors have turned bearish -- in effect throwing in the towel.

Consider the latest readings of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of several dozen short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. At minus 22.5%, the HSNSI is even lower than it was at the beginning of last week, when I had already concluded that the market was close to a bottom.

In fact, the HSNSI is now lower than it has been since October 2005, some two and one-half years ago. This is a big contrast to the sentiment situation that existed at the Jan. 22 market low, when the editor of the average market-timing newsletter wasn't even as bearish as he was during the market's corrections of last summer and fall.

Technical support for the idea that the correction's bottom has been seen comes from the market's diminished trading volume in recent weeks. Bob Brinker, editor of Bob Brinker's Marketimer, the newsletter with one of the best market-timing records over the last two decades, explained why in the March issue of his newsletter, published earlier this month:

"The process of establishing a stock market correction bottom has unfolded in text-book fashion over the past two months. This process involves the establishment of an initial closing low, followed by a short-term rally, followed by testing of the area of the prior established closing low on reduced trading volume ... The correction bottoming process (over the past few weeks) has seen a significant reduction in selling pressure in the vicinity of the Jan. 22 closing low. This is a very important aspect of any successful test."

Yet another perspective, which also supports the notion that a bottom of at least some import has been registered, comes from Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters. Though Russell is officially bearish on the stock market's primary trend, he has noted in recent weeks a potentially bullish non-confirmation in the refusal of the Dow Jones Transportation Average to join the Dow in breaking its January low.

Writing before the close on Tuesday, Russell wrote that, at Monday's close, "The market was severely oversold. But what interested me was that the market was not only oversold -- but it was severely oversold in the face of a flagrant non-confirmation on the part of the Transports. This unusually bullish combination provided the basis for a violent turnaround. In fact, it could turn out to be more than 'just a turnaround.' Ideally, what I'd like to see now is a 90% day on the upside. If that were to occur, we could be seeing a key reversal -- with the stock market perhaps having discounted the worst that can be seen ahead."

By the close on Tuesday, Russell's wish for a 90% up day apparently was granted: Up volume on the NYSE represented almost precisely 90% of the combined up and down volume on the exchange.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

美次贷危机损失可能超过7200亿美元

次贷危机是美国经济进入下降周期的结果而非原因。自2002年以来的经济增长周期消费增长起着核心作用,而消费动力来自于房地产和金融资产升值带来的财富增加。在房地产的繁荣中,以次级债为代表的金融创新是最有力的推动因素,房地产与金融的互动是资产投资收益不断攀升的主要拉动力。次级房贷的扩张增加了对房屋的有效需求,推动了价格上涨和刺激了房屋建设。但是以资产投资收益刺激消费所带来的经济增长超过了美国经济实际的增长潜力,是无法持续的,在以房地产价格为标志的资产价格达到高点以后经济进入下降周期不可避免。随着经济进入下降周期,次债危机随后发生,是本轮经济周期中以房地产刺激经济的必然结果。

目前各金融机构已经公布的损失超过了1000亿美元,我们以美联储与IMF等机构所公布的数据为基础,计算出与次贷相关的风险资产总额约35000亿美元,估计的损失可能超过7200亿美元。目前美股跌幅远低于此前东南亚金融危机与新经济泡沫破裂后的市场跌幅,同时由于对滞涨担忧的加剧,我们认为,美股跌破1月底美联储救市以后形成的平台将是不可避免的。

Saturday, March 8, 2008

巴菲特让市场很受伤

巴菲特的衰退论一出,对美国经济尚抱希望的“乐观派”们有些茫然起来

毫无疑问,巴菲特是一个“活着的传奇”,他独特的市场见解和投资哲学被时间证明是投资界的金科玉律。所以当本周一巴菲特在接受美国电视台采访时给美国经济打上“衰退”标签,并表示不再愿为三大债券保险商MBIA、Ambac和FGIC的8000亿美元市政债券提供担保后,对美国经济尚抱有希望的“乐观派”们也不禁有些茫然起来。

我就是这信心动摇者中的一个。原因其实并不在于我是多么忠实的“巴迷”,而是在于巴菲特唱衰对美国经济中长期走向的潜在影响令人担忧。

实际上,巴菲特看空美国经济也并没有抛出令人信服的论据,而仅仅只是表明了一种玄妙的、所谓“常识性”的感觉。

虽然现在正值风声鹤唳,但平心而论,还并没有足够的数据证明美国经济已经或即将步入衰退。2月28日确认后的2007年第四季度美国GDP增长依旧为黯淡的0.6%,但这一个时点的短期数据并不能说明任何趋势问题。读懂美国经济的关键,实际上在于参透其结构特征。众所周知美国GDP中消费占据七成,投资和净出口占比分别为15%和10%左右,比这些比例数字更重要且更不易察觉的核心特征是,消费是中长期增长的稳定主引擎,而投资波动往往是构成短期增长波动的主要原因。结合这个特征品味美国最新经济数据传递出的信息,很难嗅出衰退的味道。因为次贷风波后的2007年第四季度,美国投资的异常波动与经济增长骤然放缓如影随形,而美国长期消费倾向并没有显露出持续萎靡的迹象。

但巴菲特让这一切都有些变味了。投资大师对美国经济的悲观预期,与前期美联储前主席格林斯潘、美国经济研究局主席费尔德斯坦以及各类权威人士的“衰退论”相互映照,给市场信心带来致命打击。这种来自权威的预期对美国经济中长期走向的影响不容忽视。从行为金融学的理论观点来看,美国战后透支消费、超前消费和炫耀性消费中凸显的欲望、张扬和享乐特征,是“美国梦”的经济表现,其深入骨髓的乐观倾向支撑了美国透支式消费的长久维持。从某种意义上讲,美国经济持续增长很大程度上是因为大多数美国人都坚信美国经济将持续增长,并无所畏惧地维系着强势的消费倾向。

巴菲特的论断可能会让美国人真正害怕起来,而预期走弱无疑将削弱美国消费的稳定趋势,从而进一步加大美国经济陷入衰退的风险。而这一点,正是让我害怕,并真正担心起美国经济未来的根本原因。

至于巴菲特唱衰美国经济的原因,以我的智慧显然无法领悟。我只是依稀记得,巴菲特在那个被人津津乐道的2008年致股东信中说过:“要当心那些油嘴滑舌的所谓专家顾问,当你被他们的夸夸其谈骗得头脑发热,就是他们填满自己腰包的时候。”而且我们都知道巴菲特虽然很有钱,但作为商人,他不可能丢掉赚钱的原始本性。

毫无疑问,巴菲特先高调抛出8000亿美元救市计划,再断言衰退并宣布放弃拯救,对市场信心而言就像是一种使人“从天堂到地狱”的双倍打击。

那么如果美国经济真陷入衰退了,巴菲特会获得什么好处吗?一种可能比较肤浅的猜测是,也许此前宣称“未到抄底时机”的巴菲特会因此找到一个合适的抄底时机?而且,就算跌跌不休之中连抄底时机都没有,至少多元化的巴菲特还能继续将投资目光投向璀璨的新兴市场。

不管巴菲特意欲何为,他的唱衰论调无疑会让市场很受伤。

价值投资已经不管用了

A股已经进入“牛市下半场”了.

牛市下半场”有四个基本特征:
一是板块之间移动快速,
二是个股暴涨暴跌现象严重,
三是赚了指数赔了股价,
四是与国际股市联动加强。

这种情况下股民该如何操作呢?
下半场肯定还会“高潮迭起”,但是这种市场环境下价值投资已经不管用了,因为已经不存在“价值洼地”了,下面必须完全依靠技术分析才能取胜,股民尤其应该注意对消息的收集和分析。

熊市短线买卖股票纪律

* 强做多,弱做空,多持币,常轻仓(空仓), 常捂资金短捂股。
*大盘强势60-80%仓位. 大盘弱势20-40%仓位. 千万别满仓(85%)

1. 大盘跌破25日均线和13日均线则轻仓或空仓休息,大盘不站稳13日均线不加仓.

2 买股要选收盘股价站在25日均线上的.跌破25日均线的个股千万别买.

3. 各条均线成多头排列,个股股价在7日均线,13日均线,25日均线的上面.

4. 强势个股成交量缩量收阴线,股价在盘中有触击7日均线或13日均线后收起成下影线,在7日均线或13日均线附近大胆买入.买错也要买.(注意7日均线或13日均线的买点).

5. 必须选择近5天内最少有3天主力大单动向收红的强势股.

6. 买了个股股价超过7日均线的1.1倍则一定要止赢.

7. 个股股价收盘连续2天跌破13日均线,则一定要止损全卖,卖错也要卖.

8. 任何股票买入后不赚钱一律不得补仓, 弱市中涨5%就卖, 跌破13日均线也卖,无论那只股票,只要亏损达到10%立即割了,永远不要再看他!因为你和他前世无缘!

9. 买进股票的时机最好选择下午2:30以后,第二天开盘有盈利5-10%个点立即卖出.

10. 知足常乐. 千万不能贪. 贪则贫. 个股有赚坚决减仓.