恆指昨日收於236上，為上衝23800做熱身，這個23800的重要性，在1月11日本欄已談及過，文如下：
「假如今個月，恆指收於23721之上，則以月線收市價計，恆指將是見出5年來的新高，如能於二月見出24989之上，則恆指更是創出5年來之新高。
指數新高應是必然事，關鍵在於能否成交也創出新高。
成交見出新高可能不是因一天、兩天有逾千多億成交，而是可能有逾月的每天成交接近千億，而出現月總成交創新高，之後才會出現單日成交創新高，但那時有貨者就要留心要否套利，這個時間可能在三/四月間出現。」
升破5年來的收市位與高位，如按圖表理論，即是上破了個大型雙底的頸線，之後是可以上挑戰26000、32000、以至逾40000，你道發唔發？
當然，這個發之路是不要一條氣上，會有反覆，首要觀察是能否及何時升穿238。
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Yangzijiang: Pull Back and Test 200D SMA
Yangzijiang pull back to test the 200D SMA after rejected at $1.15 with a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. If Yangzijiang can stay above $1.00 (also the 61.8% FR, Uptrend support & psychological resistance turned support), there is good chance to continue the up trend. Current Yangzijiang is showing a “Higher High, Higher Low” uptrend pattern.
Things to watch:
- Bullish candlestick pattern at this support level.
- Clear $1.04 Gap resistance.
- Whether can stay above $1.00. If not, next support is $0.97 (50% FR and 50D SMA)
Saturday, January 19, 2013
QE、QE變招和QE退出
對於投資者，央行的立場和政策永遠是決定投資策略的一個重要考量。但是央行政策在過去幾年對市場的影響力，卻是史無前例的，貨幣政策像上帝之手，主導了流動性，主導了風險偏好，主導了市場的方向，主導了每一個人的投資得失。QE在央行歷史上必然佔據一個篇章。
政策透明度變得可有可無
進入2013年，量化寬鬆政策面臨著新的變招。全球金融危機之後，央行的常規貨幣政策(即利率政策)很快就彈盡糧絕了。以聯儲為首的各國央行先後推出非常規的貨幣政策，俗稱量化寬鬆政策或QE，通過購買債券來擴張央行的資產負債表，向金融體系注入流動性。QE很快就滿四歲了，它為金融市場帶來了一輪又一輪的流動性，但是其對實體經濟的刺激作用並不理想，於是央行醞釀著新的超非常規貨幣政策。
美國聯儲聲言，今後的貨幣政策與失業率掛勾，明顯偏離央行維護幣值穩定這一傳統的政策目標。估計歐洲央行今年推出負利率政策的機會很高。日本銀行的政策將與通貨膨脹掛勾。英格蘭新行長卡倫還沒有上任時，已經在討論貨幣政策與名義GDP增長掛勾。過去的QE雖說是非常規政策，不過透明度很高。央行在出招前就預先通知每個月購買債券的數量，民間對流動性的增加一清二楚。如今央行政策轉盯其他(困難的)目標，不達目標便不設上限、不設時限地注入流動性，政策透明度變得可有可無了。
流動性大水喉很可能來自日本
聯儲曾是QE大王，不過今後的寬鬆政策可能做得不如日本、歐洲那麼瘋狂。畢竟美國房地產市道在復甦，就業和消費均現改善的跡象，而且公開市場委員會中一直有公開唱反調的成員。歐洲需要刺激經濟，必須將藏匿在銀行避險的資金擠壓出來，負利率政策已經在歐洲數個國家實施，歐洲央行對此也十分感興趣。新QE的流動性大水喉很可能來自日本。
安倍上台之後，變本加厲地推行其所謂新經濟政策，為達目的，不惜將央行的獨立性和尊嚴踩在腳下，日本銀行可能被逼充當安倍瘋狂經濟學(Abenomics)的帳房。這種超非常規貨幣政策對經濟的刺激能力如何，筆者深表懷疑，不過央行流動性製造卻已經進入了新的天地，思路有變，手法有變，不變的是鋪天蓋地的流動性，不變的是超低的利率環境，逼著民間資本攀爬風險曲線。
在QE退出上，相信伯南克寧遲勿早
在QE漩渦愈轉愈大的時候，市場卻迎來了一個反高潮。2013年伊始，聯儲公布12月會議的機要，提到「某些成員認為2013年應該退出QE，另外一些成員認為2014年需要退出」，美國國債遭到拋售。筆者在美國做債券基金經理的一位朋友，聖誕假期延續到新年的第一周，債市出事時反應稍慢，新年的前三個交易日，將去年一年所賺全部賠了回去。
筆者不認為美國債市的牛市已經逆轉。在聯儲公開市場委員會裡，重要的不是「某些成員」如何想，而是伯南克和他的核心盟友怎麼做。伯南克將其學者和央行行長的所有信譽，全部賭在了QE上面，何況美國經濟已經連續幾年呈現年初樂觀但是年中疲態規律。在QE退出上，相信伯南克寧遲勿早。
不過這次債市的異動，其實是一個警鐘。美國房地產已經觸底反彈，由此銀行的資產負債表開始改善，美國銀行(BofA)率先宣布在2013年增加貸款估計其他銀行也會跟隨。這個對就業和消費的刺激十分正面，美國的民間經濟活動應該會進一步復甦。由於公共開支的收縮，美國的GDP增長未必有大的起色，但是民間經濟活力增強，經濟的不確定性就有所下降，投資隨之反彈。這個意味著美國的通貨膨脹在不遠的將來也有可能回升，逼央行在QE政策上做一個了斷。這個將成為美國債市的大拐點。拐點並非出現在伯南克宣布退出QE之刻，而是在市場開始預計QE退出之時。
在聯儲量化寬鬆催生下，美國債市走出了近20年來罕見的大牛市，收益率低到了難以置信的地步，與山姆大叔潛在的違約風險頗不相稱。一旦市場預期出現變化，初期的拋售可能相當猛烈，利率的上升可能很快。屆時受影響的恐怕不僅是債券基金經理，而是整個金融資產的資金成本。
政策透明度變得可有可無
進入2013年，量化寬鬆政策面臨著新的變招。全球金融危機之後，央行的常規貨幣政策(即利率政策)很快就彈盡糧絕了。以聯儲為首的各國央行先後推出非常規的貨幣政策，俗稱量化寬鬆政策或QE，通過購買債券來擴張央行的資產負債表，向金融體系注入流動性。QE很快就滿四歲了，它為金融市場帶來了一輪又一輪的流動性，但是其對實體經濟的刺激作用並不理想，於是央行醞釀著新的超非常規貨幣政策。
美國聯儲聲言，今後的貨幣政策與失業率掛勾，明顯偏離央行維護幣值穩定這一傳統的政策目標。估計歐洲央行今年推出負利率政策的機會很高。日本銀行的政策將與通貨膨脹掛勾。英格蘭新行長卡倫還沒有上任時，已經在討論貨幣政策與名義GDP增長掛勾。過去的QE雖說是非常規政策，不過透明度很高。央行在出招前就預先通知每個月購買債券的數量，民間對流動性的增加一清二楚。如今央行政策轉盯其他(困難的)目標，不達目標便不設上限、不設時限地注入流動性，政策透明度變得可有可無了。
流動性大水喉很可能來自日本
聯儲曾是QE大王，不過今後的寬鬆政策可能做得不如日本、歐洲那麼瘋狂。畢竟美國房地產市道在復甦，就業和消費均現改善的跡象，而且公開市場委員會中一直有公開唱反調的成員。歐洲需要刺激經濟，必須將藏匿在銀行避險的資金擠壓出來，負利率政策已經在歐洲數個國家實施，歐洲央行對此也十分感興趣。新QE的流動性大水喉很可能來自日本。
安倍上台之後，變本加厲地推行其所謂新經濟政策，為達目的，不惜將央行的獨立性和尊嚴踩在腳下，日本銀行可能被逼充當安倍瘋狂經濟學(Abenomics)的帳房。這種超非常規貨幣政策對經濟的刺激能力如何，筆者深表懷疑，不過央行流動性製造卻已經進入了新的天地，思路有變，手法有變，不變的是鋪天蓋地的流動性，不變的是超低的利率環境，逼著民間資本攀爬風險曲線。
在QE退出上，相信伯南克寧遲勿早
在QE漩渦愈轉愈大的時候，市場卻迎來了一個反高潮。2013年伊始，聯儲公布12月會議的機要，提到「某些成員認為2013年應該退出QE，另外一些成員認為2014年需要退出」，美國國債遭到拋售。筆者在美國做債券基金經理的一位朋友，聖誕假期延續到新年的第一周，債市出事時反應稍慢，新年的前三個交易日，將去年一年所賺全部賠了回去。
筆者不認為美國債市的牛市已經逆轉。在聯儲公開市場委員會裡，重要的不是「某些成員」如何想，而是伯南克和他的核心盟友怎麼做。伯南克將其學者和央行行長的所有信譽，全部賭在了QE上面，何況美國經濟已經連續幾年呈現年初樂觀但是年中疲態規律。在QE退出上，相信伯南克寧遲勿早。
不過這次債市的異動，其實是一個警鐘。美國房地產已經觸底反彈，由此銀行的資產負債表開始改善，美國銀行(BofA)率先宣布在2013年增加貸款估計其他銀行也會跟隨。這個對就業和消費的刺激十分正面，美國的民間經濟活動應該會進一步復甦。由於公共開支的收縮，美國的GDP增長未必有大的起色，但是民間經濟活力增強，經濟的不確定性就有所下降，投資隨之反彈。這個意味著美國的通貨膨脹在不遠的將來也有可能回升，逼央行在QE政策上做一個了斷。這個將成為美國債市的大拐點。拐點並非出現在伯南克宣布退出QE之刻，而是在市場開始預計QE退出之時。
在聯儲量化寬鬆催生下，美國債市走出了近20年來罕見的大牛市，收益率低到了難以置信的地步，與山姆大叔潛在的違約風險頗不相稱。一旦市場預期出現變化，初期的拋售可能相當猛烈，利率的上升可能很快。屆時受影響的恐怕不僅是債券基金經理，而是整個金融資產的資金成本。
Friday, January 4, 2013
A Common Indicator Mistake
I love it when I read forum entries from people suggesting trading strategies along the lines of:
Enter long when the RSI(14) is above 50, the stochastic (14,5,3) has crossed positive, and the Williams %R(14) is rising from the oversold area
Enter short when the RSI(14) is below 50, the stochastic (14,5,3) has crossed negative, and the Williams %R(14) is falling from the overbought area
(Disclaimer: I just made up that strategy, so don’t trade it without testing it first – the fact is though – I seriously doubt it works)
Look, there are many problems with calling something like this a strategy, but the one I want to discuss today is simply that each of these indicators belongs to the same class of indicator. The RSI, the stochastic and the Williams %R are all oscillators.
An oscillator is a momentum based indicator that moves above and below a horizontal axis representing a position of neutral momentum.
Now each of these three oscillators measures momentum slightly differently. RSI measures it through comparing the magnitude of higher closes to lower closes over a set period of price bars. The stochastic measures it showing where the current close fits relative to a high/low range over a set period of price bars. The Williams %R works on the same concept as the stochastic, showing the relationship between the current close and the high/low range set over a period of price bars, however it does so through a different formula.
Basically, all are measuring the same thing. Quite likely, you’ve added some extra complexity to your strategy that serves no useful purpose at all.
Is there ever a need for more than one oscillator? Possibly, yes. It depends on what you’re trying to achieve. You might use one for indicating oversold or overbought price areas, and a different one for indicating increasing or decreasing momentum. You might even use one indicator twice, with different parameters, to represent momentum over both a shorter and longer time period. In this case, it’s fine.
However, I suspect many traders when developing their trading approach don’t really think about it to this degree. I suspect most just slap an indicator on their chart for no other reason than their platform provides it, and then look through the price history to see whether it shows potential for profits.
In this case, they can probably benefit from removing any redundancy.
So, what indicator classes are there? With some exceptions, the majority will fit within one of these four classes:
Trend indicators, such as moving averages, directional movement or trendlines.
Volatility indicators, such as bollinger bands, average true range or standard deviation.
Oscillators such as RSI, stochastics and Williams %R.
Volume / Market Strength indicators, such as volume, on balance volume or money flow index.
Generally you shouldn’t need more than one indicator to determine trend, one to determine volatility, one to determine momentum, and one to measure volume. In many cases, through a study of price action, you can even eliminate those single indicators and determine trend, momentum and volatility through price alone. Of course, that’s not for all people.
What I encourage you to do is to look carefully at the indicators you’re using. Do you have more than one indicator from any of the indicator classes? If so, is there a valid reason for it, or is it simply redundancy that has slipped unnoticed into your trading strategy? More often than not, I’d suggest your strategy could benefit from removal of that extra redundancy. Trading is one business where ‘simple really is best’.
Enter long when the RSI(14) is above 50, the stochastic (14,5,3) has crossed positive, and the Williams %R(14) is rising from the oversold area
Enter short when the RSI(14) is below 50, the stochastic (14,5,3) has crossed negative, and the Williams %R(14) is falling from the overbought area
(Disclaimer: I just made up that strategy, so don’t trade it without testing it first – the fact is though – I seriously doubt it works)
Look, there are many problems with calling something like this a strategy, but the one I want to discuss today is simply that each of these indicators belongs to the same class of indicator. The RSI, the stochastic and the Williams %R are all oscillators.
An oscillator is a momentum based indicator that moves above and below a horizontal axis representing a position of neutral momentum.
Now each of these three oscillators measures momentum slightly differently. RSI measures it through comparing the magnitude of higher closes to lower closes over a set period of price bars. The stochastic measures it showing where the current close fits relative to a high/low range over a set period of price bars. The Williams %R works on the same concept as the stochastic, showing the relationship between the current close and the high/low range set over a period of price bars, however it does so through a different formula.
Basically, all are measuring the same thing. Quite likely, you’ve added some extra complexity to your strategy that serves no useful purpose at all.
Is there ever a need for more than one oscillator? Possibly, yes. It depends on what you’re trying to achieve. You might use one for indicating oversold or overbought price areas, and a different one for indicating increasing or decreasing momentum. You might even use one indicator twice, with different parameters, to represent momentum over both a shorter and longer time period. In this case, it’s fine.
However, I suspect many traders when developing their trading approach don’t really think about it to this degree. I suspect most just slap an indicator on their chart for no other reason than their platform provides it, and then look through the price history to see whether it shows potential for profits.
In this case, they can probably benefit from removing any redundancy.
So, what indicator classes are there? With some exceptions, the majority will fit within one of these four classes:
Trend indicators, such as moving averages, directional movement or trendlines.
Volatility indicators, such as bollinger bands, average true range or standard deviation.
Oscillators such as RSI, stochastics and Williams %R.
Volume / Market Strength indicators, such as volume, on balance volume or money flow index.
Generally you shouldn’t need more than one indicator to determine trend, one to determine volatility, one to determine momentum, and one to measure volume. In many cases, through a study of price action, you can even eliminate those single indicators and determine trend, momentum and volatility through price alone. Of course, that’s not for all people.
What I encourage you to do is to look carefully at the indicators you’re using. Do you have more than one indicator from any of the indicator classes? If so, is there a valid reason for it, or is it simply redundancy that has slipped unnoticed into your trading strategy? More often than not, I’d suggest your strategy could benefit from removal of that extra redundancy. Trading is one business where ‘simple really is best’.
Stochastic RSI
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Why does momentum oscillator give false signals in a trending market?
Any oscillator essentially measures the rate of change, or momentum, of price by comparing the current price to price at a certain point in the past. Typically, the difference is the current bar's closing price minus the close x bars ago; alternately, the current price can be divided by the price x bars ago.
Momentum calculations basically "detrend" price data (that is, they minimize trend influence longer than the look-back period), plotting price swings above and below a horizontal line that represents the trend. Some oscillators (such as the RSI and sto-chastics) use calculations to place their values between fixed upper and lower levels (e.g., zero and 100).
Figure 1 shows a hypothetical price series with a two-bar momentum calculation (current price minus price two bars ago) plotted below.
Figure 1:When a market is in a regularly fluctuating trading range, a momentum oscillator will often closely track — and lead — the price swings. Here, when the downside rate of price change begins to slow (after point A), the two-bar oscillator begins to rise, because the difference between each new low is less than the previous difference. Later, when the upside rate of price change slows, the oscillator turns down.
When price is falling at a steady pace, the momentum calculation stays at -20 points (A), meaning the current price is 20 points below the price two days ago at each of these bars. As the rate of descent of the price begins to slow (B), the momentum reading begins to climb (although it is still negative) before the final bottom (C) occurs in the price series. When price turns up, the oscillator crosses above zero into positive territory (D).
The oscillator continues to rise as the price climbs (E). The momentum calculation peaks at F and then declines, which means that, although price is still increasing, it is gaining at a slower rate. For a momentum calculation to keep rising, the price gains must continue to increase in size; if the gains are the same from day to day, the momentum indicator will be flat. Price itself does not peak until point G. This "leading" characteristic of oscillators is the primary reason traders gravitate toward them.
But this leading characteristic can also place you on the wrong side of the trend. For example, in Figure 2 the oscillator bottoms (A) ahead of price (B).
Figure 2:A typical momentum oscillator will give repeated false signals in a trending market. In this case, price continues to rise although the momentum indicator twice peaks and moves lower.
The market rises and the oscillator peaks (C), but price continues to a new high (D). The oscillator peaks a second time (E), but price continues to advance. The oscillator is "diverging" from price, which in this case is a false indication of a reversal. The rally might be losing momentum, but price is nonetheless moving higher — and it could continue to do so for an indeterminate amount of time.
Comparing the price action in Figures 1 and 2 can explain why the oscillator looked beneficial in the former and not the latter. The calculation is detrending the price action and showing the current cycle of the market. If that cycle happens to fit the oscillator's look-back period then the oscillator will lead the tops and bottoms just as the trader hopes. If it doesn't, the indicator will give false indications of peaks and bottoms. This occurs because oscillators typically use fixed look-back periods and do not adjust to the market's ever-changing cycle length.
Some technicians use sophisticated mathematics to determine the current dominant market cycle and adjust their indicators on the fly. A simpler solution is to track an oscil lator's range by comparing its current value to a certain past value — in other words, create an oscillator of an oscillator.
Comparing the current oscillator reading to the range of its readings over a given period creates a new indicator that is more in tune with dynamic market action. For example, when the market cycles become short (as they did in Figure 2) and cause the oscillator to turn up from a higher level than the previous oscillator bottom, a dynamic oscillator will pick up on this event. The stochastic-RSI is a hybrid indicator that accomplishes this goal.
Momentum calculations basically "detrend" price data (that is, they minimize trend influence longer than the look-back period), plotting price swings above and below a horizontal line that represents the trend. Some oscillators (such as the RSI and sto-chastics) use calculations to place their values between fixed upper and lower levels (e.g., zero and 100).
Figure 1 shows a hypothetical price series with a two-bar momentum calculation (current price minus price two bars ago) plotted below.
Figure 1:When a market is in a regularly fluctuating trading range, a momentum oscillator will often closely track — and lead — the price swings. Here, when the downside rate of price change begins to slow (after point A), the two-bar oscillator begins to rise, because the difference between each new low is less than the previous difference. Later, when the upside rate of price change slows, the oscillator turns down.
When price is falling at a steady pace, the momentum calculation stays at -20 points (A), meaning the current price is 20 points below the price two days ago at each of these bars. As the rate of descent of the price begins to slow (B), the momentum reading begins to climb (although it is still negative) before the final bottom (C) occurs in the price series. When price turns up, the oscillator crosses above zero into positive territory (D).
The oscillator continues to rise as the price climbs (E). The momentum calculation peaks at F and then declines, which means that, although price is still increasing, it is gaining at a slower rate. For a momentum calculation to keep rising, the price gains must continue to increase in size; if the gains are the same from day to day, the momentum indicator will be flat. Price itself does not peak until point G. This "leading" characteristic of oscillators is the primary reason traders gravitate toward them.
But this leading characteristic can also place you on the wrong side of the trend. For example, in Figure 2 the oscillator bottoms (A) ahead of price (B).
Figure 2:A typical momentum oscillator will give repeated false signals in a trending market. In this case, price continues to rise although the momentum indicator twice peaks and moves lower.
The market rises and the oscillator peaks (C), but price continues to a new high (D). The oscillator peaks a second time (E), but price continues to advance. The oscillator is "diverging" from price, which in this case is a false indication of a reversal. The rally might be losing momentum, but price is nonetheless moving higher — and it could continue to do so for an indeterminate amount of time.
Comparing the price action in Figures 1 and 2 can explain why the oscillator looked beneficial in the former and not the latter. The calculation is detrending the price action and showing the current cycle of the market. If that cycle happens to fit the oscillator's look-back period then the oscillator will lead the tops and bottoms just as the trader hopes. If it doesn't, the indicator will give false indications of peaks and bottoms. This occurs because oscillators typically use fixed look-back periods and do not adjust to the market's ever-changing cycle length.
Some technicians use sophisticated mathematics to determine the current dominant market cycle and adjust their indicators on the fly. A simpler solution is to track an oscil lator's range by comparing its current value to a certain past value — in other words, create an oscillator of an oscillator.
Comparing the current oscillator reading to the range of its readings over a given period creates a new indicator that is more in tune with dynamic market action. For example, when the market cycles become short (as they did in Figure 2) and cause the oscillator to turn up from a higher level than the previous oscillator bottom, a dynamic oscillator will pick up on this event. The stochastic-RSI is a hybrid indicator that accomplishes this goal.
StochRSI
Developed by Tushard Chande and Stanley Kroll, StochRSI is an oscillator that measures the level of RSI relative to its high-low range over a set time period. StochRSI applies the Stochastics formula to RSI values, instead of price values. This makes it an indicator of an indicator. The result is an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 1.
In their 1994 book, The New Technical Trader, Chande and Kroll explain that RSI can oscillate between 80 and 20 for extended periods without reaching extreme levels. Notice that 80 and 20 are used for overbought and oversold instead of the more traditional 70 and 30. Traders looking to enter a stock based on an overbought or oversold reading in RSI might find themselves continuously on the sidelines. Chande and Kroll developed StochRSI to increase sensitivity and generate more overbought/oversold signals.
In their 1994 book, The New Technical Trader, Chande and Kroll explain that RSI can oscillate between 80 and 20 for extended periods without reaching extreme levels. Notice that 80 and 20 are used for overbought and oversold instead of the more traditional 70 and 30. Traders looking to enter a stock based on an overbought or oversold reading in RSI might find themselves continuously on the sidelines. Chande and Kroll developed StochRSI to increase sensitivity and generate more overbought/oversold signals.
StochRSI is quite a volatile oscillator that frequently becomes overbought and oversold. For short-term trend identification, it can help to lengthen the calculation period and apply a short moving average to smooth the data. Momentum favors rising prices when the 10-day SMA of StochRSI is above .50 and falling prices when below .50. Chart 4 shows Chevron (CVX) with 20-day StochRSI and a 5-day SMA of the indicator. The 5-day SMA moved above .50 in mid February just after the stock gapped higher. The gap and moving average cross above .50 were short-term bullish signals. A falling flag/wedge formed in late February. Notice how CVX found support in the gap zone. The uptrend continued with a flag/wedge breakout and the stock advanced above 80. Even though StochRSI dipped below .50 in late March, the 5-day SMA held above .50 to keep the uptrend alive until late April. This short-term signal turned into a two month uptrend.
Unfortunately, not all signals are this picture perfect. There will be whipsaws, even when using a 5-day SMA with 20-day StochRSI. For example, a consolidation during a trend can cause the 5-day SMA of StochRSI to gyrate above/below the .50 line before continuing or reversing the trend. Chart 5 shows Yahoo! with 20-day StochRSI and its 5-day SMA for smoothing. The moving average broke above .50 in mid February to turn momentum bullish. This was followed by a resistance breakout for Yahoo! the first day of March. As the stock consolidated with a falling channel in late March, the 5-day SMA for StochRSI(20) dipped below .50 twice (red oval). These dips proved short-lived as the stock broke channel resistance and StochRSI moved above .80 to show strength. The trend did not end until the 5-day SMA moved below .50 AND Yahoo! gapped down.
Chart 6 shows Yahoo! with a bearish signal from StochRSI that did not take hold right away. The 5-day SMA for 20-day StochRSI moved below .50 to turn momentum bearish the second week of October. Yahoo! broke support for confirmation, but this break did not hold as the stock surged to 18 a few days later. The immediate recovery and bounce back above 17 formed a bear trap. Even though Yahoo! surged, the 5-day SMA for StochRSI remained below .50 and momentum did not confirm. The subsequent gap above 17.50 turned out to be an exhaustion gap as Yahoo! failed at resistance (18), filled the gap, broke support again and moved sharply lower into November. Talk about volatility.
Conclusion
StochRSI is like RSI on steroids. RSI produces relatively fewer signals and StochRSI dramatically increases the signal count. There will be more overbought/oversold readings, more centerline crosses, more good signals and more bad signals. Speed comes at a price. This means it is important to use StochRSI with other aspects of technical analysis for confirmation. The examples above use gaps, support/resistance breaks and price patterns to confirm StochRSI signals. Chartists can also employ other complementary indicators, such as On Balance Volume (OBV) or the Accumulation Distribution Line. These volume based indicators do not overlap with momentum oscillators. Chartists should also experiment with various settings and learn the nuances of StochRSI before using it in the real world.
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
货币战争已在全球悄然上演 各主要央行纷纷吹响"宽松"号角
“2012”的末日谣言已经不攻自破，然而回首这一年，一场激烈的货币战争已在全球悄然上演，各主要央行纷纷吹响“宽松”的号角，以期待本国经济能在全球经济战中立于不败之地。
★美联储
美联储在2012年不但延长扭转操作，还两次开启“印钞机”，将量化宽松规模扩大至每月850亿美元，同时还为失业率和通胀设立数字门槛。很显然，美联储要以最快的速度扩大资产负债表，若本轮宽松措施凑效，美联储有望提前加息，不过这要取决于美国就业市场状况，投资者密切关注2013年最初几个月的非农就业数据和失业率数据。
美联储于12月会议上宣布每月扩大资产购买规模450亿美元，以替换原有的扭转操作措施，此后的宽松规模将达到每月850亿美元。美联储同时指出，将在失业率超过6.5%，且1-2年期通胀预期低于2.5%时继续维持利率在当前低位水平。
美联储在9月会议上宣布，推出第三轮量化宽松政策(QE3)，即每月购买400亿美元机构抵押贷款支持债券(MBS)。另外，美联储还延长维持超低利率的时间至2015年中期，此前承诺至少至2014年底。美联储在6月会议上宣布将“扭转操作”延长至2012年年底，并将规模扩大2670亿美元，此前规模为4000亿美元，累计为6670亿美元。
澳洲国民银行(NationalAustraliaBank)驻悉尼货币策略主管阿特里尔(RayAttrill)表示，很显然，美联储要以最快的速度扩大资产负债表，这一如市场预期，在这种情况下，美元正好遭到抛售。
瑞士信贷(CreditSuisseAG)预计，美联储加息时间将比伯南克预计的2015年中段提前不少，不过这里还是存在一定的不确定性，那就是美国就业市场是否可以持续稳步改善，在2013年最初的几个月，非农就业人口数据和失业率数据料将吸引更多关注。
展望2013年，美联储将启动每月850亿美元的资产购买计划，直至失业率降至低于6.5%，以及1-2年期通胀预期超过2.5%，自从美联储12月会议为失业率和通胀设立了数字门槛，未来一年市场将着重关注这两项指标，若失业率逐步下降且通胀率逐步走高，那么预计联储将继续维持当前的货币政策不变，否则不排除联储祭出更多宽松的可能性。
★欧洲央行
欧洲央行在2012年7月会议上降息25个基点，这也是该央行自去年12月以来首次降息，时至今日，该行一直维稳货币政策。要把欧元区的利率水平从当前的0.75%历史低位再向下调的话，空间已是非常有限，然而市场流传着一种说法，那就是该央行有可能将利率调降至负值，恐怕这还要看2013年欧元区经济以及欧债局势的进一步演化了。
欧洲央行在7月会议上降息25个基点，至0.75%。在通货膨胀压力有减弱迹象的情况下，欧洲央行此举在一定程度上缓解了衰弱的欧元区经济所承受的压力。
这是欧洲央行自去年12月以来首次降息。此次降息后，欧洲央行的再融资利率已低于1%，也就是2008年雷曼兄弟(LehmanBrothers)申请破产时的水平。
调查报告显示，货币市场交易员预计欧洲央行不会将存款利率调降至负值。28位受访交易员中，18位称欧洲央行不会将存款利率调降至零下方，其余的人则认为会。调查还显示，在受访的28位交易员中，18位预计欧洲央行在未来12个月不会实施正式的量化宽松计划，或者使用新印的钞票购买债券。
欧洲央行首席经济学家普拉特(PeterPraet)指出，要把欧元区的利率水平从当前的0.75%历史低位再向下调的话，空间已是非常有限，因而，欧元央行当前更应当采取措施来确保较低的利率水平能够被贯彻到实体经济中并发挥作用。
欧洲央行在最近的几次政策会议上皆宣布按兵不动，原因在于尽管经济状况不佳，但是通胀水平目前仍徘徊在相对的高位，但对于未来能否进一步降息这一状况，欧洲央行的政策委员会成员在会议上也确实有过讨论。
普拉特在接受媒体采访时指出，目前欧元区经济领域中面临的最大问题在于超低的利率水平并没有完全渗入到实体经济领域中，然而，这一状况近来已经开始逐步得到改观，而欧洲央行也因而暂时没有采取进一步措施的必要。他指出，鉴于利率水平已经非常地低，欧洲央行目前的操作空间已极为有限。
展望2013年，欧洲央行进一步降息的可能性已很渺小，因当前利率已处于历史低位，且欧元区通胀水平仍徘徊在高位；但另一方面，加息的概率也极低，因欧元区经济在2013年料将维持疲软，到明年下半年才有望缓慢复苏。鉴于此，预计该央行未来一年料维稳货币政策。
★英国央行
英国央行在2012年维持利率在0.5%不变，但全年两次扩大宽松规模，当前的总宽松规模达3750亿英镑。2013年英国央行进一步宽松的大门依然敞开，但是门槛却拔高不少。值得期待的是，加拿大央行行长卡尼即将就任下届英国央行行长，但他可能不会像市场所预期的那样鹰派。
英国央行在7月会议上扩大宽松规模500亿英镑，至3750亿英镑，以帮助经济摆脱衰退。在稍早的2月份会议上，英国央行将量化宽松规模扩大500亿英镑，至3250亿英镑。
荷兰银行(ABNAmro)经济学家JoostBeaumont表示：“尽管英国央行购买更多公债的大门仍敞开，但我们认为采取进一步行动的门槛很高。”
★美联储
美联储在2012年不但延长扭转操作，还两次开启“印钞机”，将量化宽松规模扩大至每月850亿美元，同时还为失业率和通胀设立数字门槛。很显然，美联储要以最快的速度扩大资产负债表，若本轮宽松措施凑效，美联储有望提前加息，不过这要取决于美国就业市场状况，投资者密切关注2013年最初几个月的非农就业数据和失业率数据。
美联储于12月会议上宣布每月扩大资产购买规模450亿美元，以替换原有的扭转操作措施，此后的宽松规模将达到每月850亿美元。美联储同时指出，将在失业率超过6.5%，且1-2年期通胀预期低于2.5%时继续维持利率在当前低位水平。
美联储在9月会议上宣布，推出第三轮量化宽松政策(QE3)，即每月购买400亿美元机构抵押贷款支持债券(MBS)。另外，美联储还延长维持超低利率的时间至2015年中期，此前承诺至少至2014年底。美联储在6月会议上宣布将“扭转操作”延长至2012年年底，并将规模扩大2670亿美元，此前规模为4000亿美元，累计为6670亿美元。
澳洲国民银行(NationalAustraliaBank)驻悉尼货币策略主管阿特里尔(RayAttrill)表示，很显然，美联储要以最快的速度扩大资产负债表，这一如市场预期，在这种情况下，美元正好遭到抛售。
瑞士信贷(CreditSuisseAG)预计，美联储加息时间将比伯南克预计的2015年中段提前不少，不过这里还是存在一定的不确定性，那就是美国就业市场是否可以持续稳步改善，在2013年最初的几个月，非农就业人口数据和失业率数据料将吸引更多关注。
展望2013年，美联储将启动每月850亿美元的资产购买计划，直至失业率降至低于6.5%，以及1-2年期通胀预期超过2.5%，自从美联储12月会议为失业率和通胀设立了数字门槛，未来一年市场将着重关注这两项指标，若失业率逐步下降且通胀率逐步走高，那么预计联储将继续维持当前的货币政策不变，否则不排除联储祭出更多宽松的可能性。
★欧洲央行
欧洲央行在2012年7月会议上降息25个基点，这也是该央行自去年12月以来首次降息，时至今日，该行一直维稳货币政策。要把欧元区的利率水平从当前的0.75%历史低位再向下调的话，空间已是非常有限，然而市场流传着一种说法，那就是该央行有可能将利率调降至负值，恐怕这还要看2013年欧元区经济以及欧债局势的进一步演化了。
欧洲央行在7月会议上降息25个基点，至0.75%。在通货膨胀压力有减弱迹象的情况下，欧洲央行此举在一定程度上缓解了衰弱的欧元区经济所承受的压力。
这是欧洲央行自去年12月以来首次降息。此次降息后，欧洲央行的再融资利率已低于1%，也就是2008年雷曼兄弟(LehmanBrothers)申请破产时的水平。
调查报告显示，货币市场交易员预计欧洲央行不会将存款利率调降至负值。28位受访交易员中，18位称欧洲央行不会将存款利率调降至零下方，其余的人则认为会。调查还显示，在受访的28位交易员中，18位预计欧洲央行在未来12个月不会实施正式的量化宽松计划，或者使用新印的钞票购买债券。
欧洲央行首席经济学家普拉特(PeterPraet)指出，要把欧元区的利率水平从当前的0.75%历史低位再向下调的话，空间已是非常有限，因而，欧元央行当前更应当采取措施来确保较低的利率水平能够被贯彻到实体经济中并发挥作用。
欧洲央行在最近的几次政策会议上皆宣布按兵不动，原因在于尽管经济状况不佳，但是通胀水平目前仍徘徊在相对的高位，但对于未来能否进一步降息这一状况，欧洲央行的政策委员会成员在会议上也确实有过讨论。
普拉特在接受媒体采访时指出，目前欧元区经济领域中面临的最大问题在于超低的利率水平并没有完全渗入到实体经济领域中，然而，这一状况近来已经开始逐步得到改观，而欧洲央行也因而暂时没有采取进一步措施的必要。他指出，鉴于利率水平已经非常地低，欧洲央行目前的操作空间已极为有限。
展望2013年，欧洲央行进一步降息的可能性已很渺小，因当前利率已处于历史低位，且欧元区通胀水平仍徘徊在高位；但另一方面，加息的概率也极低，因欧元区经济在2013年料将维持疲软，到明年下半年才有望缓慢复苏。鉴于此，预计该央行未来一年料维稳货币政策。
★英国央行
英国央行在2012年维持利率在0.5%不变，但全年两次扩大宽松规模，当前的总宽松规模达3750亿英镑。2013年英国央行进一步宽松的大门依然敞开，但是门槛却拔高不少。值得期待的是，加拿大央行行长卡尼即将就任下届英国央行行长，但他可能不会像市场所预期的那样鹰派。
英国央行在7月会议上扩大宽松规模500亿英镑，至3750亿英镑，以帮助经济摆脱衰退。在稍早的2月份会议上，英国央行将量化宽松规模扩大500亿英镑，至3250亿英镑。
荷兰银行(ABNAmro)经济学家JoostBeaumont表示：“尽管英国央行购买更多公债的大门仍敞开，但我们认为采取进一步行动的门槛很高。”
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