We have become more confident that the dry bulk rally has legs for the rest ofthe year. As freight rates rise, asset values will rise and help lift the valuations of drybulk shares. Investors should take advantage of the current summer drift in the Baltic Dry Index to accumulate dry bulk stocks.
Here are 10 reasons.
• Reason 1: Crude steel production in China is expected to rise 8.2% to hit 540m tonnes as the economic stimulus measures take effect.
• Reason 2: China is expected to continue relying on imported iron ore for the majority of its consumption because the current price premium of imported iron ore over domestic sources is not excessive given the higher quality.
• Reason 3: China’s iron ore inventories at ports are low relative to its increased consumption of imported ore, despite testing previous highs on an absolute basis.
• Reason 4: Brazilian iron ore exports may take off in 2H09 and increase tonne mile demand. With Australian production already at close to full capacity, any further increase in global iron ore demand could draw additional shipments from Brazil and increase tonne-mile demand, thereby boosting dry bulk shipping rates.
• Reason 5: Europe, Russia, Japan and the US will restart blast furnaces as apparent steel demand is higher than the current level of production.
• Reason 6: Growth of property starts in China has finally gone into positive territory, suggesting that demand for construction steel is set to expand.
• Reason 7: China’s demand for and production of flat steel products should also be boosted by continuing expansion of automobile sales and the recent positive trend observed for sales of white goods.
• Reason 8: Steel inventories have declined across the globe while steel prices are rising. These are powerful incentives for steel mills to restart production.
• Reason 9: China and Japan may see higher coal imports in 2H since Chinese electricity production growth is back in the black while Japan’s coal imports should start to recover with the expected expansion of industrial production in 2H.
• Reason 10: The idle fleet of bulkers currently stands at just 5% of the total fleet,with the vast majority being ships more than 20 years old. This means that the idle fleet of modern tonnage is just 1%.
• Maintain OVERWEIGHT on dry bulk shipping. We expect this current half year to be very strong for dry bulk shipping for the above reasons. The BDI recently closed at 2,623 points. We expect it to average 4,000 points in 2H09, implying at least 50%upside to the current level and almost double the 1H average of 2,084 points.
• We have OUTPERFORM calls on STXPO, Pacific Basin, PSL and TTA, as valuations remain attractive with upside to the sum-of-parts market value of theirfleets. However, Maybulk remains an UNDERPERFORM on valuation grounds. With the exception of Maybulk, we have raised target prices for all the stocks as we factor in the recovery of second-hand vessel values.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Obama rejects 2nd stimulus: Give recovery time
President Barack Obama on Saturday dismissed the idea the nation might need a second stimulus to jolt the economy out of recession and urged Americans to be patient with his economic recovery plan.
Faced with rising unemployment numbers and criticism from Republicans who have already labeled the $787 billion stimulus a failure, Obama used his weekly radio and Internet address to remind voters that reversing job losses takes time.
He criticized Republicans for opposing the stimulus but offering few alternatives to the worst recession since the Great Depression. And he rejected talk of a second stimulus, an idea that has been discussed by Democrats and even famed investor Warren Buffett.
"We must let it work the way it's supposed to, with the understanding that in any recession, unemployment tends to recover more slowly than other measures of economic activity," Obama, who is visiting Ghana on Saturday, said in his recorded message.
The stimulus included $288 billion in tax cuts, dramatic increases in Medicaid spending, about $48 billion in highway and bridge construction and billions more to boost energy efficiency, shore up state budgets and improve schools.
The plan "was not designed to work in four months," Obama said. "It was designed to work over two years."
Since Obama signed the stimulus into law, the economy has lost more than 2 million jobs and the unemployment rate has climbed higher than the White House predicted it would have ever reached without the stimulus.
Some companies say stimulus money helped avoid layoffs. Independent government auditors found that stimulus aid to states helped keep teachers off unemployment lines. But overall job numbers continue to suffer.
Republicans have seized on this opportunity to criticize the president, but they have struggled to find their collective voice. At a news conference Friday, Republican lawmakers criticized the White House for spending so much, while simultaneously saying the administration wasn't spending it fast enough.
With the Obama administration now pushing for a costly overhaul of the nation's health care system, Republicans are casting Democrats as liberals on a shopping spree. In the GOP's weekly address Saturday, Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor, the House Republican whip, accused the Democratic-controlled Congress of reckless spending and careless borrowing.
Though the Republican stimulus proposal this January had its own deficit-pushing price tag of $478 billion, Cantor and Republicans are trying to make their case against Obama as one of fiscal restraint.
"For the stimulus alone, Washington borrowed nearly $10,000 from every American household," Cantor said. "Let me ask you: Do you feel $10,000 richer today?"
In his speech, Obama twice referred to "cleaning up the wreckage" of a recession that began on President George W. Bush's watch. But with Obama's poll numbers slipping on economic issues, Republicans want to lay the economy at the president's feet.
Faced with rising unemployment numbers and criticism from Republicans who have already labeled the $787 billion stimulus a failure, Obama used his weekly radio and Internet address to remind voters that reversing job losses takes time.
He criticized Republicans for opposing the stimulus but offering few alternatives to the worst recession since the Great Depression. And he rejected talk of a second stimulus, an idea that has been discussed by Democrats and even famed investor Warren Buffett.
"We must let it work the way it's supposed to, with the understanding that in any recession, unemployment tends to recover more slowly than other measures of economic activity," Obama, who is visiting Ghana on Saturday, said in his recorded message.
The stimulus included $288 billion in tax cuts, dramatic increases in Medicaid spending, about $48 billion in highway and bridge construction and billions more to boost energy efficiency, shore up state budgets and improve schools.
The plan "was not designed to work in four months," Obama said. "It was designed to work over two years."
Since Obama signed the stimulus into law, the economy has lost more than 2 million jobs and the unemployment rate has climbed higher than the White House predicted it would have ever reached without the stimulus.
Some companies say stimulus money helped avoid layoffs. Independent government auditors found that stimulus aid to states helped keep teachers off unemployment lines. But overall job numbers continue to suffer.
Republicans have seized on this opportunity to criticize the president, but they have struggled to find their collective voice. At a news conference Friday, Republican lawmakers criticized the White House for spending so much, while simultaneously saying the administration wasn't spending it fast enough.
With the Obama administration now pushing for a costly overhaul of the nation's health care system, Republicans are casting Democrats as liberals on a shopping spree. In the GOP's weekly address Saturday, Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor, the House Republican whip, accused the Democratic-controlled Congress of reckless spending and careless borrowing.
Though the Republican stimulus proposal this January had its own deficit-pushing price tag of $478 billion, Cantor and Republicans are trying to make their case against Obama as one of fiscal restraint.
"For the stimulus alone, Washington borrowed nearly $10,000 from every American household," Cantor said. "Let me ask you: Do you feel $10,000 richer today?"
In his speech, Obama twice referred to "cleaning up the wreckage" of a recession that began on President George W. Bush's watch. But with Obama's poll numbers slipping on economic issues, Republicans want to lay the economy at the president's feet.
Warren Buffett says second stimulus might be needed
Legendary investor Warren Buffett said in an interview aired Thursday that unemployment could hit 11% and a second stimulus package might be needed as the economy struggles to recover from recession.
Buffett, the billionaire founder of Berkshire Hathaway, said Americans suffered "a shock to the system" from the economic difficulties in the final quarter of last year but had started to rebound.
"We're not in a freefall, but we're not in a recovery either," he told ABC's Good Morning America.
"We were in a freefall really in the last quarter of last year, starting in the financial markets and spreading to the economy, and we had this huge change in behavior."
Buffett, a supporter of President Obama during last year's election campaign, said a second economic stimulus package might be needed. The Obama administration says it does not see a need for a second stimulus yet.
"I think a second one may well be called for. It is not a panacea. A stimulus is the right thing. You hope it doesn't get watered down," he said.
He likened the first $787 billion stimulus package passed by Congress to "half a tablet of Viagra and then having also a bunch of candy mixed in — it doesn't have really quite the wallop."
Buffett said unemployment had "a ways to go" and he would not be surprised to see it hit 11% before it recovers.
"I'm not predicting it but no that would not surprise me," he said of the 11% figure.
"We're going to come out of this better than ever, the best days of America lie ahead but not next week or next month," he said.
Buffett, the billionaire founder of Berkshire Hathaway, said Americans suffered "a shock to the system" from the economic difficulties in the final quarter of last year but had started to rebound.
"We're not in a freefall, but we're not in a recovery either," he told ABC's Good Morning America.
"We were in a freefall really in the last quarter of last year, starting in the financial markets and spreading to the economy, and we had this huge change in behavior."
Buffett, a supporter of President Obama during last year's election campaign, said a second economic stimulus package might be needed. The Obama administration says it does not see a need for a second stimulus yet.
"I think a second one may well be called for. It is not a panacea. A stimulus is the right thing. You hope it doesn't get watered down," he said.
He likened the first $787 billion stimulus package passed by Congress to "half a tablet of Viagra and then having also a bunch of candy mixed in — it doesn't have really quite the wallop."
Buffett said unemployment had "a ways to go" and he would not be surprised to see it hit 11% before it recovers.
"I'm not predicting it but no that would not surprise me," he said of the 11% figure.
"We're going to come out of this better than ever, the best days of America lie ahead but not next week or next month," he said.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
A positive mind to ace the big 'C'
Looking at how healthy he is now, it is hard to imagine that in 1997, Yap (above) was given only three months to live.
He credits the love and support of his wife and five children as his reason to fight the disease, when all he wanted to do was die.
It started with stomach pains 12 years ago, after eating some yee sang (a dish of shredded vegetables and raw fish). At the hospital, the doctor presumed that he had food poisoning and discharged him after treatment.
"I felt the pain off and on, and I had no appetite. Then I had spicy food at a mamak stall one day," he said. "The pain was so excruciating, I was admitted to hospital.
"The doctors conducted a battery of tests, including an X-ray and MRI. After a colonoscopy, they found a tumour bigger than my fist.
"I had advanced stage three colon cancer."
Yap went under the knife to have the tumour and 38cm of his colon removed. He also underwent six cycles of chemotherapy but his ordeal did not end there. Two months after he completed chemo, Yap noticed lumps on his neck.
"I had a relapse. The cancer had moved to my lymph nodes and the tumours were like two horns on my neck. The doctors suggested new drugs to treat this stage-four growth and said that if I did not go for treatment, I would have just three months to live!"
Yap abhorred any treatment as he had seen the effect of the drugs on another cancer patient.
"It was not something I wanted to go through if I was dying. I cried until I had no tears left.
"I didn't want my wife and children to find out that I was dying. I wanted to spare them the pain."
Eventually, he did tell them and it was an emotional moment when his family told him that they would make the best of the time they had with him. That was when Yap decided to find ways to prolong his life.
With his wife's encouragement, he took up qiqong.
"I practised 10 to 12 hours a day using the zhineng technique to overcome pain. I did a 3 1/2-hour session daily."
Yap claimed that qigong had helped him overcome cancer as within days of the gruelling exercises, he could no longer feel the lumps on his neck.
To motivate other cancer patients, he teaches qigong at National Cancer Society Malaysia (NCSM) every Sunday.
"What I do through qigong is suppress the cancer cells in my body. I am a much stronger person now. I have not seen my doctors since 1997."
Yap said a person is diagnosed with cancer for life as it is incurable. To ensure that you do not relapse, it is important to change your lifestyle and stay positive.
Attitude is a crucial factor in keeping cancer at bay, because if the mind is weak, it will be difficult to win the battle.
"If you have cancer, talk to cancer survivors. Don't talk to people who have no idea of what you are going through. You need to join a support group.
"Family and friends need to be positive around cancer patients. They should not cry or start to ask about dying or show a negative attitude because it will affect the patient."
He credits the love and support of his wife and five children as his reason to fight the disease, when all he wanted to do was die.
It started with stomach pains 12 years ago, after eating some yee sang (a dish of shredded vegetables and raw fish). At the hospital, the doctor presumed that he had food poisoning and discharged him after treatment.
"I felt the pain off and on, and I had no appetite. Then I had spicy food at a mamak stall one day," he said. "The pain was so excruciating, I was admitted to hospital.
"The doctors conducted a battery of tests, including an X-ray and MRI. After a colonoscopy, they found a tumour bigger than my fist.
"I had advanced stage three colon cancer."
Yap went under the knife to have the tumour and 38cm of his colon removed. He also underwent six cycles of chemotherapy but his ordeal did not end there. Two months after he completed chemo, Yap noticed lumps on his neck.
"I had a relapse. The cancer had moved to my lymph nodes and the tumours were like two horns on my neck. The doctors suggested new drugs to treat this stage-four growth and said that if I did not go for treatment, I would have just three months to live!"
Yap abhorred any treatment as he had seen the effect of the drugs on another cancer patient.
"It was not something I wanted to go through if I was dying. I cried until I had no tears left.
"I didn't want my wife and children to find out that I was dying. I wanted to spare them the pain."
Eventually, he did tell them and it was an emotional moment when his family told him that they would make the best of the time they had with him. That was when Yap decided to find ways to prolong his life.
With his wife's encouragement, he took up qiqong.
"I practised 10 to 12 hours a day using the zhineng technique to overcome pain. I did a 3 1/2-hour session daily."
Yap claimed that qigong had helped him overcome cancer as within days of the gruelling exercises, he could no longer feel the lumps on his neck.
To motivate other cancer patients, he teaches qigong at National Cancer Society Malaysia (NCSM) every Sunday.
"What I do through qigong is suppress the cancer cells in my body. I am a much stronger person now. I have not seen my doctors since 1997."
Yap said a person is diagnosed with cancer for life as it is incurable. To ensure that you do not relapse, it is important to change your lifestyle and stay positive.
Attitude is a crucial factor in keeping cancer at bay, because if the mind is weak, it will be difficult to win the battle.
"If you have cancer, talk to cancer survivors. Don't talk to people who have no idea of what you are going through. You need to join a support group.
"Family and friends need to be positive around cancer patients. They should not cry or start to ask about dying or show a negative attitude because it will affect the patient."
Monday, January 12, 2009
一个美丽愿景的隐忧
2005年，旅游局宣布了一个十年的发展宏图,要在2015年，吸引1700万人次的旅客到来。这比2005年的800万旅客到访人次多一倍。该局也计划将旅游收益在十年内增加两倍，由2005年的108亿元增至300亿元。
因为这个美丽的愿景，许多人开始相信，新加坡将面对严重的酒店短缺问题。
上至政府高官，下至商界人士都说：新加坡在2005年拥有的3万5000间酒店客房，只够应付当时的800万名旅客的需求。一旦旅客人数增加至1700万，新加坡将需要多3万5000间酒店客房，因此，新加坡有必要在未来几年内大幅度提高酒店客房的供应量。
由于酒店客房收费自2005年起便以惊人的速度飙涨，乌节路的五星级酒店从每晚150元的价钱，一路攀升至每晚300元至400元，在一些大型会议或活动举行期间，甚至高达每晚500元至600元，令商界大喊吃不消。因此政府在过去两三年更是毫不留情地将新酒店地段一幅接一幅地发放到市场。
2006年，政府将25幅酒店地段开放让发展商选购，其中10幅地段以24亿元的总价值成交。另外还有17家酒店私下成交，总成交金额超过15亿元。
2007年，政府再接再励，卖出多10幅可建酒店的地段，总成交额达到37亿元，另外还有11家酒店私下成交，总成交额超过10亿元。
2008年的大型房地产交易放缓下来，不过政府仍然卖出了两幅酒店地段，另外还有一幅位于马里士他路的酒店地段以3980万元私下成交。
这造成新加坡的新酒店客房供应量从去年开始“大涨潮”，其增长的速度之快是过去十年来前所未见的。从2008年至2012年，新加坡将有1万4000多间酒店客房完工，即平均每年2854间。但是，从1998年至2007年的十年之内，新加坡每年只有平均494间客房完工。
过去几年内，不是没有人对这种酒店客房飞快增长的速度感到担忧。2006年7月，笔者曾写过一篇评论“又一个旅游愿景”，对政府频频放发酒店地段的速度表示关注。
旅游局设定目标也有失准
1700万旅客到访人次是一个令人向往的愿景，所有新加坡人都希望看到它实现。不过，希望是一回事，认定它一定会实现又是另一回事。
旅游局在这些年来设定的目标，达到的虽然不少，失准的也不是没有。1996年，旅游局也曾推出一个“旅游都会21世纪愿景”，目标是在五年后的2000年，争取1000万人次的旅客到访，并赚取160亿元外汇。
结果，2000年的旅客到访人数只微升到770万人次，收益则不升反降，只达到101亿元。这主要是因为区域在1997年发生了亚洲金融风暴，各行各业都受到冲击，旅游业也无法幸免。
1998年到访人数甚至由1995年的710万人次下降至620万人次的低点，旅客收益也由1995年的116亿元减少至85亿元。因此，这个1000万旅客人次的目标一直到2007年，也就是设定的11年后才第一次达到，为1030万。
旅游局原本将2008年旅客到访人次的目标“瞄准”在1080万，旅客收益在155亿元，不过，去年9月它已经宣布这个目标已无望达到。
截至去年11月，到访新加坡的旅客人次只有919万。这也就是说，上个月的旅客到访人次必须超过81万才能在2008年连续第二年守住1000万人次的大关。
设定目标是重要的，特别是为了宏观的经济策划。但是，根据一个假设来做出更多的假设，并且全力去实行，却是相当危险的。
虽然大家都认为，新加坡将在两座IR、F1赛事、青奥会，以及乌节路几个重头项目的带动下，形势一片大好。但在短短五年内就将整个市场的酒店客房供应量增加40％，即使是在平稳的经济环境下，仍是一个大胆的举动。更何况，这许多的假设似乎没有将新加坡每隔五六年就出现一次的经济不景气考虑在内。
当然，新加坡未必已没有机会在2015年达到1700万旅客到访人次的目标，因为现在距离2015年还有六年。如果全球经济在一两年内翻身，迅速奋起直追，说不定我们还是有机会赶上这个目标。但问题是，在未来一两年的关键期，大批新酒店客房将涌入市场，这是不是会对一些业者带来致命的伤害，因失血过多而阵亡？
即使新加坡的旅客到访人数真的达到1700万，我们又是否应该认真思考，新加坡是否真的需要另外3万5000间客房？在这1700万旅客到访人次中，有多少属于过境旅客，根本不会入住本地的酒店？他们当中又会不会有人像一些入境澳门的旅客一样，在赌场通宵狂赌，连住宿酒店的钱都省下来？
因为这个美丽的愿景，许多人开始相信，新加坡将面对严重的酒店短缺问题。
上至政府高官，下至商界人士都说：新加坡在2005年拥有的3万5000间酒店客房，只够应付当时的800万名旅客的需求。一旦旅客人数增加至1700万，新加坡将需要多3万5000间酒店客房，因此，新加坡有必要在未来几年内大幅度提高酒店客房的供应量。
由于酒店客房收费自2005年起便以惊人的速度飙涨，乌节路的五星级酒店从每晚150元的价钱，一路攀升至每晚300元至400元，在一些大型会议或活动举行期间，甚至高达每晚500元至600元，令商界大喊吃不消。因此政府在过去两三年更是毫不留情地将新酒店地段一幅接一幅地发放到市场。
2006年，政府将25幅酒店地段开放让发展商选购，其中10幅地段以24亿元的总价值成交。另外还有17家酒店私下成交，总成交金额超过15亿元。
2007年，政府再接再励，卖出多10幅可建酒店的地段，总成交额达到37亿元，另外还有11家酒店私下成交，总成交额超过10亿元。
2008年的大型房地产交易放缓下来，不过政府仍然卖出了两幅酒店地段，另外还有一幅位于马里士他路的酒店地段以3980万元私下成交。
这造成新加坡的新酒店客房供应量从去年开始“大涨潮”，其增长的速度之快是过去十年来前所未见的。从2008年至2012年，新加坡将有1万4000多间酒店客房完工，即平均每年2854间。但是，从1998年至2007年的十年之内，新加坡每年只有平均494间客房完工。
过去几年内，不是没有人对这种酒店客房飞快增长的速度感到担忧。2006年7月，笔者曾写过一篇评论“又一个旅游愿景”，对政府频频放发酒店地段的速度表示关注。
旅游局设定目标也有失准
1700万旅客到访人次是一个令人向往的愿景，所有新加坡人都希望看到它实现。不过，希望是一回事，认定它一定会实现又是另一回事。
旅游局在这些年来设定的目标，达到的虽然不少，失准的也不是没有。1996年，旅游局也曾推出一个“旅游都会21世纪愿景”，目标是在五年后的2000年，争取1000万人次的旅客到访，并赚取160亿元外汇。
结果，2000年的旅客到访人数只微升到770万人次，收益则不升反降，只达到101亿元。这主要是因为区域在1997年发生了亚洲金融风暴，各行各业都受到冲击，旅游业也无法幸免。
1998年到访人数甚至由1995年的710万人次下降至620万人次的低点，旅客收益也由1995年的116亿元减少至85亿元。因此，这个1000万旅客人次的目标一直到2007年，也就是设定的11年后才第一次达到，为1030万。
旅游局原本将2008年旅客到访人次的目标“瞄准”在1080万，旅客收益在155亿元，不过，去年9月它已经宣布这个目标已无望达到。
截至去年11月，到访新加坡的旅客人次只有919万。这也就是说，上个月的旅客到访人次必须超过81万才能在2008年连续第二年守住1000万人次的大关。
设定目标是重要的，特别是为了宏观的经济策划。但是，根据一个假设来做出更多的假设，并且全力去实行，却是相当危险的。
虽然大家都认为，新加坡将在两座IR、F1赛事、青奥会，以及乌节路几个重头项目的带动下，形势一片大好。但在短短五年内就将整个市场的酒店客房供应量增加40％，即使是在平稳的经济环境下，仍是一个大胆的举动。更何况，这许多的假设似乎没有将新加坡每隔五六年就出现一次的经济不景气考虑在内。
当然，新加坡未必已没有机会在2015年达到1700万旅客到访人次的目标，因为现在距离2015年还有六年。如果全球经济在一两年内翻身，迅速奋起直追，说不定我们还是有机会赶上这个目标。但问题是，在未来一两年的关键期，大批新酒店客房将涌入市场，这是不是会对一些业者带来致命的伤害，因失血过多而阵亡？
即使新加坡的旅客到访人数真的达到1700万，我们又是否应该认真思考，新加坡是否真的需要另外3万5000间客房？在这1700万旅客到访人次中，有多少属于过境旅客，根本不会入住本地的酒店？他们当中又会不会有人像一些入境澳门的旅客一样，在赌场通宵狂赌，连住宿酒店的钱都省下来？
外资抛售中资银行股不足惧
近日，外资战略投资者纷纷出售到期解禁的中资银行股股权，套现其增值不少的中国各银行H股股份。美国银行以28亿美元出售持有的中国建设银行2.5%股份，获利11亿美元；瑞银集团以8.35亿美元出售了其在中国银行1.33%的持股，实现近3.35亿美元的利润，李嘉诚也通过出售其慈善基金持有的部分中国银行股票，套现近5亿美元，英国苏格兰皇家银行等机构也在协商出售其持有的股票。这是自2005年以来外资金融机构共向中国的银行投资250多亿美元中的一小部分，但在解禁后集中抛售并引起中资银行股股价纷纷大幅下跌，备受关注。
在全球金融市场出现危机而导致大部分机构和投资都出现亏损的背景下，金融机构出售流动性强且比较优质的资产以修复因全球金融危机而恶化的资产状况，是一项正常的选择。而所持到期的中资银行股正是这样的可售出资产，通过折价配售不仅购买者踊跃，而且兑现了巨额利润，获得宝贵的现金。促使外资机构离场的另外一个原因是，部分机构(如瑞银)对中国银行股未来前景较为悲观。尽管中资银行股价较为合理，但随着经济衰退，大量企业倒闭可能导致存量信贷业务增加不良资产率，而刺激性的拯救方案也会导致政府部门要求更为激进信贷政策，即给那些缺乏抵押或者前景不妙的项目和公司提供融资。不过，目前来看，外资抛售的主要原因还是以改善自身资产状况为主。
当初中国引进境外战略投资者的主要原因是，提高改制后的中资银行的投资吸引力来增强投资者的信心，实现顺利上市，并借助外资股东来提升银行的营运质素与内部管理，提高风险管理和产品创新水平。目前来看，这些所谓的战略投资者更像是财务投资者，这也可能是时机造成的印象，金融危机促使他们撤离。
但是，必须指出的是，大型商业银行并不具备依靠外部股东来改善治理的可能，因为大型商业银行必然以“我”为主，外资股东影响力较弱；其次，双方在国内外市场越来越具有竞争性。相反，外资入股的中小商业银行并没有遭受抛售(这也可能因为禁售期与上市地点的因素)，荷兰银行还增持了在北京银行的股份，因为外资机构在中小银行具有更大的话语权并以此积累更多中国市场经验。因此说，大型商业银行应该以大规模引进海外金融人才以及减少行政部门对银行商业运作的干预来改善治理，而不是依靠所谓的战略投资者。
战略投资者成功协议出售表明，国际投资者对中国银行股仍具信心。但是，目前仍不清楚接手人都有谁。如果说原始配售是为了上市引进战略投资者，那么，美国银行在去年5月、11月两次从汇金公司手中低价购买250多亿股建行H股股份，在2个月后，却又以出于自身财务状况等因素，减持56.2亿股建行股份图利不菲。
目前，淡马锡控股、亚洲开发银行和三菱东京UFJ银行等所持有的中国银行股权已于2008年12月31日解禁；工商银行战略投资者包括高盛和安联，其禁售期也将于今年4月份期满。未来这些投资者是否会陆续减持令人关注，这将直接影响中国资本市场的走势，也意味着一场盛宴的结束。
在全球金融市场出现危机而导致大部分机构和投资都出现亏损的背景下，金融机构出售流动性强且比较优质的资产以修复因全球金融危机而恶化的资产状况，是一项正常的选择。而所持到期的中资银行股正是这样的可售出资产，通过折价配售不仅购买者踊跃，而且兑现了巨额利润，获得宝贵的现金。促使外资机构离场的另外一个原因是，部分机构(如瑞银)对中国银行股未来前景较为悲观。尽管中资银行股价较为合理，但随着经济衰退，大量企业倒闭可能导致存量信贷业务增加不良资产率，而刺激性的拯救方案也会导致政府部门要求更为激进信贷政策，即给那些缺乏抵押或者前景不妙的项目和公司提供融资。不过，目前来看，外资抛售的主要原因还是以改善自身资产状况为主。
当初中国引进境外战略投资者的主要原因是，提高改制后的中资银行的投资吸引力来增强投资者的信心，实现顺利上市，并借助外资股东来提升银行的营运质素与内部管理，提高风险管理和产品创新水平。目前来看，这些所谓的战略投资者更像是财务投资者，这也可能是时机造成的印象，金融危机促使他们撤离。
但是，必须指出的是，大型商业银行并不具备依靠外部股东来改善治理的可能，因为大型商业银行必然以“我”为主，外资股东影响力较弱；其次，双方在国内外市场越来越具有竞争性。相反，外资入股的中小商业银行并没有遭受抛售(这也可能因为禁售期与上市地点的因素)，荷兰银行还增持了在北京银行的股份，因为外资机构在中小银行具有更大的话语权并以此积累更多中国市场经验。因此说，大型商业银行应该以大规模引进海外金融人才以及减少行政部门对银行商业运作的干预来改善治理，而不是依靠所谓的战略投资者。
战略投资者成功协议出售表明，国际投资者对中国银行股仍具信心。但是，目前仍不清楚接手人都有谁。如果说原始配售是为了上市引进战略投资者，那么，美国银行在去年5月、11月两次从汇金公司手中低价购买250多亿股建行H股股份，在2个月后，却又以出于自身财务状况等因素，减持56.2亿股建行股份图利不菲。
目前，淡马锡控股、亚洲开发银行和三菱东京UFJ银行等所持有的中国银行股权已于2008年12月31日解禁；工商银行战略投资者包括高盛和安联，其禁售期也将于今年4月份期满。未来这些投资者是否会陆续减持令人关注，这将直接影响中国资本市场的走势，也意味着一场盛宴的结束。
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