My Time

Sunday, June 30, 2013

亂局中保持鎮定

估值過高的資產市場,泡沫爆破剛剛開始,債券、資本市場、貨幣、黃金、商品及交易所買賣基金等,統統無一幸免,但從時間及價格上來看,好戲還在後頭!

避走內銀股
當下,切勿貪平追捧劣質板塊,例如銀行、基建、房地產、資源及保險股;此外,過往長時間是投機者天堂的貨幣及商品市場,在谷底反彈之前,大概還會再跌下去,還是避之則吉。
另一邊廂,我們距離中國銀行爆發危機的日子不遠。近日,內地銀行間拆息市場極為波動,拆息竟然一下子由兩釐抽升至十一釐,足見銀行間互相猜疑,拒絕借錢給對方!事情的發展大概會是,內地銀行一間接一間排着隊,招認有問題的貸款及投資,然後向市場「抽水」增加資本。我相信,困擾中國的影子銀行問題最終以爆煲收場,而房地產投機者率先要為他們的貪婪負上沉重代價!以上事件曾經在發達的經濟體,如澳洲、香港及美國等上演過,難道中國可以幸免於難?
香港及其他地方的投資者正因為資產價格持續下跌,損失慘重。如果《南華早報》還有地產版,不妨查一查樓價,正如你每日查看股價一樣,許多人定必感到震驚!在大跌市下,本倉投資組合亦無可幸免,但各位無須擔心,只要你能確保把錢投資在既安全又優質的股票上。記緊要剷除你一無所知的「垃圾」資產,例如 ETF,這個市值二萬億美元的市場,已步向爆煲邊緣。

艾文斯的指引
以下,我想與你分享一點生活的智慧,出自二十年代,著名的美國作家艾文斯( Max Ehrmann),希望能令你提起精神,保持開朗的心境!
日常做事時,要無比小心,皆因這個世界充滿騙局,但不要因此而受到蒙蔽,忘記世上還有美好的事。
要對事業感興趣,無論你的工作是何等卑微。財富跟月亮一樣,有陰晴圓缺,工作是最實在的東西。
不要將自己與別人做比較,這只會徒添你的空虛及苦惱,記住世界總有比你好和比你差的人,何不享受你現有的成就,規劃好你自己的人生?
這是最實在的東西,在你財富升跌的時候,如果你將自己與其他人比較,你或者會變得空虛和苦惱,事關總有比你好和比你差的人。享受你的成就和規劃。
細心傾聽長輩的叮嚀,培養內心的力量,在逆境中,保護好自己。
不要被無謂的想像困擾自己,許多恐怖是源於疲勞及寂寞。
無論你多麼努力,有什麼渴望,在嘈雜、紛亂的時刻,都要保持內心的寧靜。縱使世界充滿虛假、奴役及破碎的夢,但還是美麗的!

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

後市悲觀

聯儲局主席伯南克周三表示,如果經濟持續好轉,將從今年稍晚開始縮減購債,並在 2014 年中完全退出量化寬鬆( QE)。嚇到全球股市腳軟。杜指上周三周四連插兩日,累積跌幅560點!至周五才喘定,收市反彈43點,收14801點,標普500指數漲4點,報1593點。杜指上周跌1.8%,標普500指數挫跌2.1%。

不過,比起歐洲股市,又唔係咁差喎。收美國「收水」打擊外,希臘局勢再度陷動蕩,進一步打擊歐洲股市。泛歐斯托克600指數創了今年新低。上周累積下跌3.7%,連續第五周收陰。歐洲三大股市跌到四腳朝天,德國股市全個星期跌4.2%,法國跌3.9%,英國跌3.1%。
美股上週五反彈,除了此前兩日跌得太急勁,有撈底盤入市搏反彈外,「伯南克御用記者」希爾森拉什(Jon Hilsenrath) 在《華爾街日報》撰文表示市場可能忽略了伯南克發出的一些溫和派訊號,誤解了其傳遞的訊息。佢話盡管聯儲局「收水」這種可能性是存在的,但當局要在很久以後才會上調短期利率。希爾森拉什的文章出街後,美股在午後開始反彈。
過去數年,聯儲局多次祭出QE大旗,開動印鈔機救市,大批熱錢湧向市場,令到股市持續攀升,屢創新高。而如何收科,也一直係市場關注的問題。伯南克的任期明年初屆滿,總統奧巴馬講到出口話伯南克已經做得比估計長,看來換人的機會好大。他上周有關終止QE的講話,被好多分析家解讀為他向市場表示,「只能幫到呢度,接下來就要靠自己啦!」
事實上,伯南克對「收水」的決定,不單止出乎市場意料之外,連聯儲局內的官員都有點詫異。素以反對QE而聞名的鷹派,聖路易斯聯儲總裁布拉德(James Bullard) ,上周五解釋他為什麼對聯儲局的最新決定,投了反對票。他表示,聯儲局選擇公佈縮減買債的時間非常糟糕,聯儲局應該等到經濟好轉有「更確鑿證據」、通貨膨脹率向下趨勢停止的時候再公佈該計劃。
對於後市走勢,普遍分析員都唔睇好。他們估計,市場將有幾個月的「劇烈波動」,但跌多升少,因為投資者擔憂將有更多正面數據促使聯儲局加速退市;而面對或許即將到來的升息階段,以及中國經濟放慢與壞帳問題,經濟數據即使唔靚仔,亦無法激起市場買股的興趣。
有「末日博士」之稱的麥嘉華(Marc Faber)接受《CNBC》訪問時指出,美股「還有下跌空間」,警告股民切勿追高。麥嘉華指出,除了聯儲局將逐步縮減QE外,還有許多因素拖累大市向下。其中包括利率持續上升。美國 30 年期、10 年期政府公債殖利率自去年七月觸底反彈上升至今,一年來利率一直呈現上揚態勢。此外,他認為中國現時的經濟看來比官方數據還要悲觀許多。中國全年經濟成長率目前可能實際只係以 4% 的速率增長。沒有了支持的信貸的巨幅擴張,中國經濟好難見到增長。其它新興經濟體,也可能要迎接一個成長率放緩現象。
麥嘉華同樣不看好黃金與其它貴金屬的前景,不過黃金下跌空間已經有所縮減,因為新興市場央行還是會持續累積實體黃金。

周小川扮金融大鱷

4月21日,我到上海出席一個論壇,主題是滬港兩地金融發展。長期以來,上海一直自稱是中國國際金融中心,但在我眼中,上海根本不是國際金融中心,人民幣不能自由兌換,上海股市中的A股不能自由買賣,這算甚麼國際金融中心?
至今為止,上海不論其金融市場的交易額有多大,就算大過香港許多倍,也不是國際金融中心,只是中國的金融中心。上海要成為真正的國際金融中心,開放是必要的,人民幣要自由兌換,A股要與B股、H股大合併,讓全球資金自由買賣。
中國政府為甚麼一直不敢開放?我認為其中一個原因就是金融市場仍不成熟,人才短缺,特別是索羅斯這一類人才的短缺,如果中國在現階段全面開放金融體系,相信很容易成為國際大鱷的點心。  

死傷難免 根基不變
最近一段日子,投資者叫苦連天,中國的金融界更是慘上加慘,銀根短缺,隔夜拆息飆升,人民銀行見死不救,再踩多一腳,我認為這很可能是在進行一項預演,檢視金融體系一旦全面開放之後,遇上國際大鱷的狙擊如何應對。現在,周小川正在扮演索羅斯,對金融體系進行「狙擊」,實際上則是一場假戲真做的演習、壓力測試。
97年亞洲金融風暴,國際大鱷得勢不饒人,踩到馬來西亞政府、俄羅斯政府打橫來,不再理甚麼自由市場規劃,直接以國家的權力來殺掉這些大鱷,金融風暴才結束。如果,人民銀行扮演國際大鱷的角色,在中國預演金融風暴,在市場上抽緊銀根,小量死傷不可避免,但相信不會動搖根基,在適當時候是會再度拋出救生圈救人。
現在是考驗大家耐性的時候,今天好好享受iBond為你帶來的數百元歡樂吧!

中國自爆拆息風暴

自從習李政府上台後,政府對經濟改革的決心明顯加大,希望扭轉中國經濟當前種種的致命傷,首要任務就是要控制信貸和貨幣增長。不過,在2013年上半年,內地無論是M2或是信貸增長,都比政府收緊了的指標高了不少,敲響了警鐘。  

旨在教訓銀行 卻存矛盾
為表決心,政府來了一招自我引爆,由央行出手,在拆息市場上製造流動性緊縮的局面,教訓那些太過依賴影子銀行業務的銀行;過去越是依賴影子銀行的,越臨近周轉不靈的邊緣,使市場上謠言滿天飛,人心惶惶,隔夜拆息去到極高水平,甚至比美國金融海嘯時的美國銀行間拆息更高。
單看拆息高企,於是有人說,這場拆息風暴是中國版的金融海嘯。這個當然是「差之毫釐,謬以千里」,美國的金融海嘯是市場引爆的風波(政府極力拯救),中國的拆息風暴卻是政府有意整頓金融體系的結果。
筆者支持經濟改革轉型,不過,筆者卻擔憂改革的目標和方式在中國有根本性的矛盾。
中國影子銀行的盛行,根本的原因,是中國金融改革在過去十年停頓了;監管機構一方面提升資本需求和收緊對呆壞賬管理,一方面卻無視國企(或有關係者)水太多、中小企(或有項目、卻沒「關係」者)水緊,實際的貸款成本高漲;而且,在長期負利率的情況下,存款被通脹蠶食,等於被打了稅(或是被打了劫),於是所有存款者都要尋求出路。
在貸款和存款的供求關係下,中國影子銀行就應運而生。既然中國影子銀行是由於金融和經濟政策所帶來的市場扭曲而成,解決方法當然是一系列的金融經濟改革,包括利率市場化(提高存款利率,使真實利率由負變正)、發展債券和信貸市場(使中小企有多點的融資渠道)、改變國企壟斷資本市場(使資本分配多以回報為目標,而非其他「尋租」項目)等。
簡單來說,就是減少政府支配市場定價的功能,加大市場發揮其定價和資源分配的功能。  

錯誤改革 恐變真正危機
可惜的是,今次拆息風暴的本質,仍然是以政府的行政手段去干預市場,而非透過根本制度的改革,從而達到打擊過度依賴影子銀行的金融機構。
中國經濟改革已到了一個非常重要的關頭,明顯地,以林毅夫為首的學派(繼續以投資基建去拉動經濟增長)不再被重視,相反,改革目標是所謂的「四化同步」發展(新型工業化、信息化、城鎮化、農業現代化)。
筆者贊同改革目標,但是擔心改革過程當中,仍然是依賴政府干預更多,作為其改革手段,而忽視了改革的根本,是減少政府過去干預所造成的市場扭曲,而釋放市場的競爭力;否則,尋租效應只會持續,造成揠苗助長,甚至會兩頭不到岸,既不能激發市場力量,投資建基力度又不足,可能使經濟陷入真正的危機。

中國經濟的歷史性革命

2013年6月,可能會被歷史定性為中國經濟的革命。以後對中國的投資,必要兼理這個發展。

此月,上海銀行同業隔夜拆息曾一度抽高上30厘的歷史性高位,後應無繼者,因為這個高拆息,是中國人民銀行,或應確切地講,是中央政府默許或指示人行,去烙印出這個高位,為習李領導的經濟革命鳴鑼開道。

近代中國經濟有過兩次革命,每次革命都是因舊制不彰。

(1)1949年後的私產公有化,並行計劃經濟。

(2)1978年改革開放,這其實是場退計劃經濟,退公有化的經濟革命,不少人對中國的印象仍是停留在半世紀前的「共產」,「充公」片段,而未察覺或拒絕承認,中國已改走條:有社會主義特色的市場經濟路,現任美國國務卿克里曾謂:今日中國不是我們以前所認識的中國,其意是指,中國是在退公有化,退計劃經濟,並向市場經濟靠攏。

改革走向資本市場制度
90年代中,筆者跟個上海出租車司機交談,他謂中國已改行資本主義,筆者打愕,問其故,他謂,鄧小平講:「凡是資本主義好的,我們都要有」,中國還不是行資本主義了?這位司機大叔有著勞動人民的率直性,筆者認為鄧小平在倡改革時,他不介意,以資本主義好的事物為師,但相信他會十分介意,將社會主義好的事物也拋掉,亦因此就有了:「行有中國社會主義特色的市場經濟」的行動綱領,這個行動綱領在歷史上言,是未之有過之舉,將私人財產充公,交與國家,古今中外都有,但將國家資產歸還私人,就應未之見有,前蘇聯將所有國家資產股份化,每人分到些股份就完了,但就沒有股票市場,結果認識不多的工人、農民,以極低價出讓其股份,有識者便轉手間接管了大部分的前蘇聯國家資產,形成有者愈有,無者愈無,中國就不用這個震盪法,而用漸進法。

A.解散人民公社,還田於八億農民,有不少萬元戶故事。

B.引進外資,成立民營企業,香港工廠北上,造就今時不少香港企業家、工業家。

C. 1994年股改,將國企的壞資產抽離,好人好姐地上市,以中石油(857)為例,2000年4月以1.27元上市,曾高逾20元,近月雖回至八元區,但仍較上市價高,但A股就全不一樣,上市價16.7元人民幣,但近日只得回八元人民幣,原因之一是國企營運只是壟斷性,未現市場性。

中國由1978年的改革開放以來,有不同階段的改革和發展,目的是想提升生產力,但就缺乏了企業精神與道德價值的提升,結果是不少企業家都以為搵快錢而不擇手段,因此有產品安全,食品安全可以欠奉,在金融市場裏,就會資產風險安全欠奉。

這種安全欠奉在資本主義形成期是普遍存在,英國工業革命初期的以童工作礦工去拉爆,二十世紀的非洲血錢,跟中國的煤礦礦難,工業鹽製鹹魚,都是同出一脈,經營者為尋求最大利潤,可置社會整體利益於不顧,2007年美國的次按危機,就是美國金融業罔顧社會風險,而揭出來的大頭佛,筆者不是以此來說明中國企業經營者無良心有理,而是指出當這種風氣一出現,以中國這個想走市場經濟道路的國家。是不可以任之內之。讓無形之手——市場,肆無忌憚,而是應讓有形之手——政府,迅速撥亂反正,始終,中國是後發展者,歐美的前人不良經驗是可以借鑑,走少些彎路,始可快速提升生產力,今年六月的銀行同業拆息扯高,可以視為有形之手教訓金融市場上不聽話的無形之手的始點。

一直以來,中央對金融系統的穩定性,十分關注,用的方法是控制銀行的存貸比、控制每年銀行的貸款額等等。

在初期,這些監控是有效的,隨著市場道路開闊,一些無良心(不顧整體金融系統安全者,一如不顧食品安全的製造商)的金融業員就在每年年終的考核期前,上下其手,只到年終考核日(12月31)才扮乖乖,如果一個國家的金融系統可以一年364日都處風險刀口,只得第365日才交數扮乖時,這個國家的金融系統是可以很危險,瞬間便倒閉,雷曼兄弟這家百年老店不是在年結日交不出數才倒閉,而是在9月15日一個不用向任何監管機構提交體檢報告之日,而倒下來。

存貸手法增加壞帳比例
中央為堵塞這些走罅行為,而將年結考核,改為每季考核,去年更改為每月考核,不過無良者仍然在這月核之間上下其手。由每月一號開始就濫借濫貸,到月底,就要企業還錢,借錢者除了拿資金去炒賣金融產品外,哪能用借來的一個月期資金去發展企業,這個現象在今時美國也有,所以伯南克的大量QE,資金是流向了金融市場,並非實體經濟市場,只不過中國搞得絕不掩飾而矣!

中國銀行界每到月底,上至大經理,下至前枱小職員都加入個攬儲行動,因為月頭借出太多,存貨比不達標,便要全行總動員去招攬客戶存錢,方法當然是以息誘,例如在今年6月20日起至月尾的日子裏,便有存款二千萬,一天有息二萬的攬儲筍盤口,化作年息是36厘,銀行要付36厘息去招攬存款,你道這間銀行有沒有風險,當間間銀行都是這樣去攬儲時,一旦攬不夠,產生擠提,你道其金融系統性風險有多大?

不過走罅者是不會理這些的,他們認為人行一定會出手相救,因為以前每當上海銀行國企拆業升至四厘以上時,人行定向市場注資,因此一些銀行更大安旨意地去濫貸,因為就算攬不到民資,也可以攬人行的官資,結果就是每年、每季,以至每季的存貸比考核都被廢了武功,因為這是個每人都可以有椅子坐的音樂椅遊戲,反映出來的,是每年中央定出的M2貨幣增量都被超標,而社會資金是被挪去做炒賣,而不是用到實體經濟去。

6月17日人行發了通告與各金融機構,提出要:「根據黨中央國務院關於做如當前經濟工作的有關要求」這個要求是甚麼?

控制金融市場產品風險
此前在5月13日的國務院機構職能轉變動員電視電話會議上,李克強總理曾指出,「在存量貨幣較大的情況下,廣義貨幣供應量增速較高。要實現今年發展的預期目標,靠刺激政策、政府直接投資,空間已不大,還必須依靠市場機制。」在6月8日主持環渤海省份經濟工作座談會時,李克強二度要求「要通過激活貨幣信貸存量支援實體經濟發展」。

6月19日,他主持召開國務院常務會議,會議提出要優化金融資源配置,用好增量、盤活存量,更有力的支援經濟轉型升級。這是一個多月以來,李克強第三次提及存量資金問題。

簡單言,中央與人行應再不容忍貓捉老鼠般的遊戲,銀行要真正發揮百業之母的角色,假如這次6.20的上海銀行同業拆息能真正趕錢入到實體經濟的話,則稱2013年6月初為六月革命,怕也錯不到那裏。

Thursday, June 13, 2013

提防大鱷又做世界

iBond包賺不虧,股市則淒淒慘慘,所謂退市陰影源頭的美國,至今股市僅是微跌,倒是世界各地股市大跌,我擔心這是國際大鱷在做世界,吃大茶飯,想重演1997年亞洲金融風暴的傑作,因為目前的背景與當年的確有些相似。
1997年的亞洲金融風暴,起源是美元滙率走強,理由是當時的美國總統克林頓很本事,成為二戰之後第一位沒有財政赤字、並有盈餘的美國總統,美國沒有財政赤字的結果是美元強勢,但是一些亞洲國家的政府依然不願意讓自己國家的貨幣自然貶值,最後才讓國際大鱷以狙擊的方法,逼這些亞洲國家貨幣貶值。  

退市陰影 亞幣最傷
因為不是自然有序的貶值,而是受狙擊,故貶值的速度、幅度特別大,並造成巨大破壞。
美國如果正式退市,美元加息再加上美國經濟復蘇,美元就有升值的能量,過去幾年,美元利率非常低,可能引起亞洲多國的商人借美元再轉換成自己國家的貨幣來經商以節省利息開支,一旦美元升值,這些借美元的大小企業就得搶購美元以對沖風險,搶購美元的錢從哪裏來?一個可能的來源就是拋售股票。
我們經常說市場上錢太多,這些錢從哪裏來?實際上,所謂的熱錢大多數是借來的,美元利率長期維持接近零的水平,於是投機者就大借美元,於全球各地參與各種各樣的投機。因此,退市陰影打擊最大的反而不是美國,而是那些大量借美元的地方。

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Analysis of Global Investment Limited (Non-REIT)


Wednesday, May 8, 2013


Current Price = $0.16

Current Yield = 9.38%
Price-to-book Ratio = 0.708
Assets per unit = $0.255
Debt per unit = $0.026 (including current liabilities)
Gearing = 10.2%
Secured NAV = $0.169Global Investment Limited has announced its results which are quite favourable except for their proposed rights issue. At current price, it is already 9.26% with a favourable price-to-book ratio. Its secured NAV (according to my estimation) is also at $0.169 which is higher than its trading price.

This pricing is a response to the rights issue where it drops from $0.17. I just thought that it is quite unnecessary for raise more funds at this juncture because it will dilute the NAV and secured NAV as well. Moreover, they said that they will be in a position to seize opportunities that comes along the way does not really appeal me. I don't know when it will happen. If there is a delay, our dividends might be affected.

Just a quick data on how it looks like after rights issue. Price will be $0.155


Current Yield = 9.67%
Price-to-book Ratio = 0.767
Assets per unit = $0.223
Debt per unit = $0.018 (including current liabilities)
Gearing = 8.3%
Secured NAV = $0.161
Nevertheless, it may seem to be an opportunity to buy on weakness since its trading price is below secured NAV. I am heavily exposed to this counter already (having 157,000 shares) so I will just look forward to securing its rights and apply for excess. I look at it in totality and it still seems a good deal.

Impact of higher interest expenses on distributions

Exposure to interest rate risk. A hike in borrowing rates would increase interest expense via the REIT’s exposure to floating interest rates. S-REITs’ sensitivity to interest rates hikes is dependent on 2 main factors – their gearing level and the % of interest costs that is hedged into fixed rates. As a general observation, we note that most S-REITs have hedged at least 50% of their debt and have also diversified their sources of funding.

Long debt maturity profile limits re-financing risk. The sector will be renewing 7% and 14% of its debt in FY13F and 14F respectively, which we believe is not excessive, when compared to the total indebtedness of the sector.

We note that FEHT, Cache, SGREIT and FCOT have 0% of debt expiring in FY13 and FY14, and REITs with >50% of debt expiring in FY13 and FY14 are CDREIT, MINT, CREIT and CRCT.

What Is the Impact of Rising Rates?

Market view: Re-emerging concerns of a conclusion to QE and cheap funding have led to an increasing focus on the risk of rising interest rates.

Our view: We think a rise in short rates in 2015 does not pose an immediate threat to borrowing costs, which are generally well hedged. Rising long rates could be coincident with further yield compression, especially if growth prospects improve.

Borrowing Cost Impact: Hedged Short end of curve not rising as much: US 10-year government bond yields have expanded 35bps YTD to 2.1%.

Our US interest rate strategy team expects further expansion to 2.29% by 4Q13 and 2.46% by 1Q14. Yet at the shorter end of the curve, 3-month US treasury yields are still ~0.05%. Our US economics team expects the benchmarked Fed Funds Rate to remain at 0.15% through 2014.

Singapore interest rates could show a similar trend, given how they track US rates to achieve interest rate parity. Singapore 10-year government bond yields have mirrored the US increase, rising 53bps YTD to 1.8%, and our ASEAN economics team sees shorter term 3M-SIBOR holding at 0.4% through 2014. 3M-SIBOR is the benchmark rate lenders tend to use, and the risk of that rising seems muted in the near term.

Borrowing cost exposure well hedged: Since the GFC, REITs have spread out debt maturities to reduce funding risks.

They have also been locking in fixed rates in anticipation of an eventual interest rate rise. REITs under our coverage have ~70% of debt hedged against interest rate exposure, and ~20% is due for refinancing each year. What this means is that when borrowing costs do rise, the impact is likely relatively muted – we estimate the immediate impact of a 1ppt rise is ~3% on div/shr, and 9% eventually, spread over the maturity of fixed-rate debt and swaps.

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Analysis of Sabana REIT


Thursday, April 25, 2013

Current Price on 19th Apr 2013 = $1.37

Current Yield = 7.04%
Price-to-book Ratio = 1.262
Assets per unit = $1.794
Debt per unit = $0.708 (including current liabilities)
Gearing = 39.5%Sabana REIT has published its results which pushes its price up to $1.37 which is fantastic. Despite being at high price, its yield is still at 7.04% which is good. But its price-to-book ratio is also very high at 1.262.

Comparing to its peers, AIMSAMP REIT seems a better deal as its yield is very close and it has a better price-to-book ratio. Nevertheless this is still a good deal for its yield.

I remember missing this when I tried to buy at $1.20. Somehow I have forgotten about it and let it slip to this price. Again I regretted it. Well, I will need to be more focused and do my analysis more regularly. (Have been busy at work). I will be thinking about this and weigh it against AIMSAMP REIT, Rickmers, Global Investment Limited, and Religare to see which one is the best to enter.

高息股急挫非一日之寒

高息股、房產信託基金股價在過去數天突然急挫,累計達一至兩成,表面上看來是受到市場憂慮美國退市,美債價格下跌,債息上息,於是趁高沽出高息股及房產基金,部分轉買債券;但實際上是否如此簡單?筆者認為,在美國聯儲局一再表明會維持低息環境一段時間之後,大家對投資收息股的興趣大增,加上當時本港受惠於自由行豪買購物潮,商場租金急升,一些以商場物業收租為主的房託基金的派息亦隨收入上升而增加,而其後一些二、三線城市的自由行購物,也直接帶旺領匯旗下商場的收益。

然而,現時自由行消費模式改變及消費轉弱,令商場收益逐步受影響,加上這類收租股及房託基金在過去一年多已累積了近倍或以上計的升幅,息率已下降至3厘或以下;以領匯在近日高位46元作計算,預期2013年息率只有3厘,對基金及機構投資者而言,根本缺乏吸納的誘因。

另一方面,市場亦多認為本港租金暫時見頂,為免繼續持有收息,但卻蝕了股價,自然也會跟勢沽貨;加上不少長線投資基金是在低位逐步買入,趁高沽貨鎖定利潤亦合理,遂令整個收息股份及房託基金齊齊下瀉。

Understanding Singapore REITS – REIT Categories

Before we begin, let’s start with the definition of REITs. REITs are corporate entities which invest primarily in real estate and have various tax benefits. To qualify for the tax benefits, a REIT is required to distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to unit holders. This rule is very important as since most of the profits are paid out as dividends, REITs do not retain much of the profits for debt redemptions, asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) or acquisitions.


The first thing to understand about Singapore REITs (SREITs) is that they invest in different types of properties. The classes of properties include office, retail, office/retail hybrids, industrial, healthcare, hospitality and residential. Each class is very different from one another, and have varying rental yields, defensiveness of rentals, prospects for rental increases, Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) periods, leverage ratios and so on.

Healthcare REITS – Very High Defensiveness / Medium Dividend Yields / Very Long WALE


Examples: Parkway Life REIT, First REIT

Healthcare REITs are the most defensive REITs on the Singapore Stock Exchange. However, there are only 2 healthcare REITs listed currently: Parkway and First. Healthcare REITs have extremely long leases with hospitals, ranging from 10-20 year leases. These leases may also have guaranteed rental increases built in, hence the upside for these REITs are also guaranteed regardless of the economic environment.

Healthcare is a basic necessity which cannot be foregone no matter how bad the economy is as people still need to go to hospitals and see doctors. First REIT focuses on Indonesian hospitals; however, the rentals are denominated in Singapore Dollars, so there is little foreign exchange risk. Healthcare REITs should be a part of everybody’s stock portfolio.

Industrial REITS (General Industrials / Warehousing) – Medium Defensiveness / High Dividend Yields / Long WALE

Examples: Ascendas REITs, Cache Logistics Trust, Cambridge Industrial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust, Sabana REIT.

Industrial REITs are a good balance of defensiveness and high dividend yields of between 6%-10%. Industrial REITs can be loosely categorized into 2 types: general industrial properties and warehousing properties. REITs like Cambridge Industrial Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust are more focused on general industrial properties, which are mostly used for manufacturing purposes. REITs like Cache, Mapletree Logistics Trust are focused on warehousing properties which typically serve logistics purposes.

The difference between the two usually lies in the WALE. Warehousing trusts typically have longer WALEs of 5 years or longer, while general industrial REITs may have WALEs of 3-4 years. Warehousing trusts are therefore usually more resilient, but the tradeoff is rentals are locked in for longer periods, and hence they may not be able to take advantage of a rising rental environment.

Retail REITS – High Defensiveness / Medium Dividend Yields / Medium WALE

Examples: CapitaMall Trust, Fraser Centerpoint Trust, LippoMall (Indonesia Only)

Retail REITs are very defensive, in particular the REITs which are purely suburban mall plays such as Fraser Centerpoint Trust. Even in a downturn, shoppers still need to go shopping and buy their daily necessities, eat and watch movies etc.

Typical dividend yields for retail REITs stand at about 5%-7%. What you give up in yields, you get in terms of resilience of rentals and hence stable distributions. For investors who are highly risk-averse, retail REITs are one of the top choices. In fact, even during the 2008/2009 period, retail rentals did not really drop and occupancy rate remained high for most of the shopping malls.

It is also quite easy to determine the performance of the properties under the REITs, you just go shopping in them! There’s nothing better than a physical site inspection to ensure the malls are well run, have brisk business for tenants, crowd traffic is good and so on. Retail REITs also tend to benefit a lot from asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) as seen from the recent asset enhancements at Causway Point to update the mall and make it more attractive, bringing more visitors and raising the rentals as well.

Office REITS – Low-Medium Defensiveness / Medium-High Dividend Yields / Medium WALE

Examples: Frasers Commercial Trust, CapitaCommercial Trust, Keppel REIT

Office REITs are generally one of the least defensive REITs you can invest in. Office assets typically suffer from oversupply in Singapore. Suitable office locations are mushrooming all around Singapore and many companies these days may not see the need to be located in the city.

Even Grade A offices may lose substantial tenants as many companies choose to cut costs when the rental gets too expensive in the city center. Another factor to consider is that many of the tenants in the city are European/American financial companies which are bearing the brunt of this 2008-2011 financial crisis, hence downsizing is possible. In the 2008/2009 financial crisis, office rental yields dropped substantially, affecting distributions dramatically.

Retail / Office Hybrid REITS – Medium-High Defensiveness / Medium-High Dividend Yields / Medium WALE

Examples: Mapletree Commercial Trust, Starhill REIT, Suntec REIT

As the name suggests, these REITs are typically integrated developments which have both offices (and sometimes residential) on top of the shopping mall like Vivocity, Suntec etc. Depending on how much of the rental is derived from the office versus the shopping mall, the defensiveness and yields lie in between that of offices and retail.

Mapletree Commercial Trust has Vivocity as the key asset, Starhill has Takashimaya and Wisma Atria and Suntec REIT has Suntec Convention Center and Shopping Mall. Hybrid REITs are good to own especially if you have limited capital as the REIT itself already benefits from being diversified with Retail/Office/Residential assets. You get defensive qualities of the retail and still enjoy large upside on office rentals when the economy booms.

Hospitality REITS – Low Defensiveness / High Dividend Yields / Low WALE

Examples: Ascott REIT, CDL Hospitality Trust

Hospitality REITs are typically made up of hotels and serviced residences. These REITs are probably the most cyclical of all the REITs as hotel occupancy rates are based on tourist arrivals.

Ascott REIT has a large percentage of its portfolio worldwide and is thus more subject to the global economy. CDL Hospitality Trust on the other hand is more focused on Singapore hotels. Given the huge boost in tourist arrivals from the two Casinos, first F1 night race in the world and many other initiatives, tourist arrivals to Singapore look poised to continue booming.

However, a global downturn may dampen tourism as well. For CDL Hospitality in particular, it does not make sense to look at WALE, but at average occupancy rates and average room rates as key metrics instead. Both are key beneficiaries if global tourism industry is to improve.

Residential REITS – Low-Medium Defensiveness / Low-High Dividend Yields / Short WALE

Example: Saizen REIT (Japan Only)

Saizen REIT is the only pure play residential REIT listed on the Singapore exchange. My experience with Singapore rental properties that lease expiry profiles are low, with many tenants leaving after the 1 year contract is up. With the high tenant turnover in residential properties in Singapore, I hardly think they make good investments for REITs. Hence Saizen REIT only invests in Japanese residential properties.

While I am not familiar with Japanese properties, what I hear is that many Japanese do not have the means to buy houses and hence may rent a house for most of their lives, unlike Singaporeans who can buy affordable HDBs. However, Saizen has defaulted on a loan before, incurring extremely high default costs. You should study the REIT very carefully if you are interested.

SREITs Summary

So in summary, ranking by various qualities:
Defensiveness (From Highest to Lowest) – Healthcare, Retail, Retail/Office Hybrid, Industrial, Office, Residential, Hospitality
Dividend Yields (From Highest to Lowest) – Hospitality, Residential, Office, Industrial, Retail/Office Hybrid, Retail, Healthcar
Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) (From Highest to Lowest) – Healthcare, Industrial, Retail, Retail/Office Hybrid, Office, Residential, Hospitality

You can see dividend yield is pretty much inversely correlated to defensiveness.

Please note that this is just a general guide as REITs may have different risk levels due to other factors like strong sponsors, access to capital, debt rating, leverage ratio, quality of management, location of properties and so on.

Further analysis is required to understand the REITs before investing. Different categories of REITs offer different qualities you may be interested in. A good portfolio should always be diversified with different kinds of REITs. Now that you understand the categories better, you can tweak your portfolio percentages based on your risk profile. For example, if you are more risk adverse, you may want to have a higher percentage of your portfolio in healthcare and retail. If you are willing to take more risks, you may want to have a higher percentage of your portfolio in industrial, office and hospitality.