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Friday, January 4, 2013

StochRSI

Developed by Tushard Chande and Stanley Kroll, StochRSI is an oscillator that measures the level of RSI relative to its high-low range over a set time period. StochRSI applies the Stochastics formula to RSI values, instead of price values. This makes it an indicator of an indicator. The result is an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 1.
In their 1994 book, The New Technical Trader, Chande and Kroll explain that RSI can oscillate between 80 and 20 for extended periods without reaching extreme levels. Notice that 80 and 20 are used for overbought and oversold instead of the more traditional 70 and 30. Traders looking to enter a stock based on an overbought or oversold reading in RSI might find themselves continuously on the sidelines. Chande and Kroll developed StochRSI to increase sensitivity and generate more overbought/oversold signals.

StochRSI is quite a volatile oscillator that frequently becomes overbought and oversold. For short-term trend identification, it can help to lengthen the calculation period and apply a short moving average to smooth the data. Momentum favors rising prices when the 10-day SMA of StochRSI is above .50 and falling prices when below .50. Chart 4 shows Chevron (CVX) with 20-day StochRSI and a 5-day SMA of the indicator. The 5-day SMA moved above .50 in mid February just after the stock gapped higher. The gap and moving average cross above .50 were short-term bullish signals. A falling flag/wedge formed in late February. Notice how CVX found support in the gap zone. The uptrend continued with a flag/wedge breakout and the stock advanced above 80. Even though StochRSI dipped below .50 in late March, the 5-day SMA held above .50 to keep the uptrend alive until late April. This short-term signal turned into a two month uptrend.
StochRSI - Chart 4
Unfortunately, not all signals are this picture perfect. There will be whipsaws, even when using a 5-day SMA with 20-day StochRSI. For example, a consolidation during a trend can cause the 5-day SMA of StochRSI to gyrate above/below the .50 line before continuing or reversing the trend. Chart 5 shows Yahoo! with 20-day StochRSI and its 5-day SMA for smoothing. The moving average broke above .50 in mid February to turn momentum bullish. This was followed by a resistance breakout for Yahoo! the first day of March. As the stock consolidated with a falling channel in late March, the 5-day SMA for StochRSI(20) dipped below .50 twice (red oval). These dips proved short-lived as the stock broke channel resistance and StochRSI moved above .80 to show strength. The trend did not end until the 5-day SMA moved below .50 AND Yahoo! gapped down.
StochRSI - Chart 5
Chart 6 shows Yahoo! with a bearish signal from StochRSI that did not take hold right away. The 5-day SMA for 20-day StochRSI moved below .50 to turn momentum bearish the second week of October. Yahoo! broke support for confirmation, but this break did not hold as the stock surged to 18 a few days later. The immediate recovery and bounce back above 17 formed a bear trap. Even though Yahoo! surged, the 5-day SMA for StochRSI remained below .50 and momentum did not confirm. The subsequent gap above 17.50 turned out to be an exhaustion gap as Yahoo! failed at resistance (18), filled the gap, broke support again and moved sharply lower into November. Talk about volatility.
StochRSI - Chart 6

Conclusion

StochRSI is like RSI on steroids. RSI produces relatively fewer signals and StochRSI dramatically increases the signal count. There will be more overbought/oversold readings, more centerline crosses, more good signals and more bad signals. Speed comes at a price. This means it is important to use StochRSI with other aspects of technical analysis for confirmation. The examples above use gaps, support/resistance breaks and price patterns to confirm StochRSI signals. Chartists can also employ other complementary indicators, such as On Balance Volume (OBV) or the Accumulation Distribution Line. These volume based indicators do not overlap with momentum oscillators. Chartists should also experiment with various settings and learn the nuances of StochRSI before using it in the real world.

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