理查·丹尼斯是一个期货市场的传奇人物。在美国期货市场里，理查·丹尼斯是一个期货市场的传奇人物。在美国期货市场里，理查.丹尼斯（Richard Dennis）是一位具有传奇色彩的人物，60年代末，未满20岁的理查。（Richard Dennis）是一位具有传奇色彩的人物，60年代末，未满20岁的理查。丹尼斯在交易所担任场内跑手（runner）,每星期赚40美元，两、三年后,他觉得时机成熟，准备亲自投入期货市场一试身手。他从亲朋好友处借来l600美元，但因资金不足，只能在合约量较小的芝加哥买了一个“美中交易所”的席位，花去l200美元，剩下的交易本金只有400美元。对绝大多数人来说，400美元从事期货交易，赚钱的可能性根本是微乎其微的，但是在理查·丹尼斯追随趋势的交易原则下，就是这400美元，最终被理查·丹尼斯像变魔术奇迹般地变成了两亿多美元。用他父亲的话说：“理查这四百块钱滚得不错。”在成功之余并亲自培训带出来的十几个徒弟，成为美国期货市场的一支生力军，管理的资金达数十亿美元。
1960年理查·丹尼斯在期货交易所担任跑腿，传送买卖单据时，已经深受投机买卖吸引。
1970年夏天，丹尼斯向亲戚朋友借来1600美元，在中美期货交易所购入会籍，开始投机生涯。70年代末，外汇、证券等期货市场已逐步成熟。为了从更多的市场获利，理查·丹尼斯决定离开交易所现场，在场外做单。
80年代，理查·丹尼斯成为期货市场叱咤风云的人物，下单入场经常可以带动市势。
1987年股灾中，理查·丹尼斯遭受重挫。旗下基金由损失近半，个人帐户也遭同样败绩。
1988年，理查·丹尼斯淡出交易场，留下一座传奇丰碑。
1995年他从延续成功者的格言："从哪里跌到就从哪里爬起来。" 理查·丹尼斯又重新返回市场。在美国期货市场里，理查·丹尼斯（Richard Dennis）是一位具有传奇色彩的人物，60年代末，未满20岁的理查。理查·丹尼斯在交易所担任场内跑手（runner）,每星期赚40美元，两、三年后,他觉得时机成熟，准备亲自投入期货市场一试身手。他从亲朋好友处借来l600美元，但因资金不足，只能在合约量较小的芝加哥买了一个“美中交易所”的席位，花去l200美元，剩下的交易本金只有400美元。对绝大多数人来说，400美元从事期货交易，赚钱的可能性根本是微乎其微的，但是在理查·丹尼斯追随趋势的交易原则下，就是这400美元，最终被理查·丹尼斯像变魔术奇迹般地变成了两亿多美元。用他父亲的话说：“理查这四百块钱滚得不错。”在成功之余并亲自培训带出来的十几个徒弟，成为美国期货市场的一支生力军，管理的资金达数十亿美元。
理查·丹尼斯与他的朋友威廉·厄克哈德两人在期货交易方面配合得天衣无缝，一同创下美国期货史上少有的佳绩，但他俩在人生哲学方面却有很大差异。理查·丹尼斯高中毕业后一直做期货,是在实践中杀出来的。威廉·厄克哈德却是饱浸文墨，他们经常争执不休的问题是“:究竟一个成功的交易员是天生的还是练出来的?” 理查·丹尼斯认为是可以培养的，威廉·厄克哈德则认为更多的是靠天份，两人谁也说服不了谁，干脆打赌验证。为此，他们在1983底和1984年初《华尔街日报》上登寻人广告，寻找一些愿意接受训练成为期货交易者的人。工作条件是：交易者必须搬到芝加哥，接受微薄的底薪，如果交易赚钱可以有20%的分红。慕名前来应聘者上千人，他们从中挑选了80人到芝加哥面试，最后选定23人从事此项训练计划，这23人的背景、学识、爱好、性格各不相同，具有广泛的代表性。
理查·丹尼斯花了两周时间培训，毫无保留教授他们期货交易的基本概念，以及他自己的交易方法和原则。他教导学生追求趋势，先分析决定市场是多头还是空头，进场交易时必须做好资金管理，适当控制买卖单量，并选择时机获利出场。理查·丹尼斯在亚洲参观一家水产养殖场时发现该场繁殖乌龟很有一套，回来后一时兴起称他的徒儿们为“龟儿”。课程结束后，理查·丹尼斯给每人一个10万美元的帐户进行实战练习。这些龟儿还真争气，在4年的训练课程中，23名学生有3人退出，其余20人其余都有上乘表现，平均每年收益率在l00％左右，而他付给这些学生20%的分红就达3000-3500万美元，其中最成功的一名学生，4年下来替理查·丹尼斯赚了3150万美元。名声传出去后许多大基金会纷纷出高薪来挖人，如今大部分“龟儿们’要么被挖走，要么拉出去单干，手头都控制着上亿元美金，成为期货市场的一支生力军。“乌龟帮”的名声也越叫越响。结果证实理查。理查·丹尼斯的观点是正确的：成功的交易者是可以通过训练与学习而得的，这无关乎聪明才智，全在于交易者的方法、原则。
Saturday, December 15, 2012
全球央行打响本币保卫战
其实早在9月份美联储推出QE3的时候，就已经为全球汇率战埋好了导火索。为了避免被美元淹没，各国央行都被迫参战。本周三美国刚刚推出QE4，周四瑞士央行就宣布维持基准利率0.0-0.25%不变，同时维持瑞郎兑欧元汇率上限1.20不变。并准备无限量购买外汇以抑制本币升值。新一轮货币战争已然打响。
此前一段时期，新兴市场国家一直在警告：美联储的定量宽松政策可能引发各国汇率“自杀式”的竞争性贬值，毕竟每个国家都希望在国际市场获得经济优势。如今美国接连推出QE3和QE4，其他国家抗拒本币升值的愿望显得更加强烈，因为目前全球贸易正遭遇空前的萎靡，新兴市场出口商有更强烈的保护市场份额的冲动；其二，与之前有时间限制的定量宽松不同，QE3和QE4是开放式计划，意味着只要美联储认为美国就业市场没有显著改善，就可以一直让自己的印钞机工作下去。
发达经济体也难逃量化宽松之苦
发达经济体也难逃量化宽松之苦，日本首当其冲。本来自今年3月以来，日元一直处于小幅上升趋势，同时日本经济也有所复苏。但由于钓鱼岛事件和欧美货币贬值，日本出口有剧跌的可能性，所以日本央行不得不放开闸门，向市场推出新一轮凭空印出的货币，以保护出口。
9月19日，日本央行决定将资产购买计划的规模从70万亿日元扩大至80万亿日元，并将该计划的有效期延长6个月至2013年底。其实日本央行也是迫于无奈，如果日本央行仍然按兵不动，只是在言语上继续对日元升势表示担忧，那么日元将再获避险资金青睐，且在全球宽松浪潮的影响下，一旦热钱大规模流入造成的通胀泡沫将令日本无法承受。
欧元区则行动早得多。欧央行行长德拉吉9月6日宣布，该行将启动直接货币交易(OMP)计划，在二级市场无限量购买成员国国债，以压低成员国融资成本，应对欧债危机，促进欧元区经济复苏。
无独有偶，英国央行也公布了9月5-6日货币政策委员会会议纪要。会议纪要显示，一些货币政策委员会委员认为未来更有可能需要扩大资产购买规模。至此，英国宽松政策预期也重新燃起。
澳大利亚央行也在9月18日发布9月货币政策会议纪要称，“鉴于对通胀前景的评估，假如澳大利亚经济增长前景严重恶化，未来仍有进一步降息的空间。”
新兴经济体更不堪其忧
美联储和伯南克过去在为定量宽松辩护时，总是会提到该政策在振兴美国经济的同时也会让其他国家受益，因为随着美国经济复苏，美国对其他国家产品的需求也会增加。但很遗憾，世界对此并不领情。巴西财长曼特加甚至给其贴上了“自私”的标签。这不是一时的情绪之举。就在美联储宣布推出QE4之后，国际油价应声上涨，全球立刻为可能到来的通胀高企感到忧虑。
巴西尤为紧张，11月巴西通胀率从十月份的5.45%反弹至5.53%。同时，巴西经济增长减速明显，尽管在过去一年来，巴西政府推出了系列财政刺激政策，但该国三季度GDP同比增0.9%、环比仅增0.6%，创近年来的最低增速。
而受通胀率高企和经济放缓的影响，在经历连续10次降息后，巴西央行在上月28日宣布维持基准利率于纪录低点7.25%不变，并表示将兼顾保增长和控通胀的任务，暗示将在未来一段时间内维持该利率水平不变。
同为新兴经济体的印度日子也不好过。今年第三季度印度经济同比增长5.3%，低于第二季度的5.5%，这已经是印度经济增速连续第三个季度低于6%，远逊于前两年的增长速度；同时该国的通胀率却已经维持在7%以上。
对此，10月31日印度央行宣布，维持目前8%的基准利率不变，但下调存款准备金率25个基点至4.25%，为市场注入流动性刺激经济。
日本央行行长白川方明对发达市场大量宽松信贷流向世界其它地方所引起的“连带损害”发出警告。“随着全球化的不断深化，没有一个负责任的政策制定者现在能够对跨境溢出效应和自己政策的反馈效应置之不理，”，他还呼吁发达经济体的官员们更加耐心。但战争一旦打响，呼吁就被淹没在呼啸的炮弹声中了.
此前一段时期，新兴市场国家一直在警告：美联储的定量宽松政策可能引发各国汇率“自杀式”的竞争性贬值，毕竟每个国家都希望在国际市场获得经济优势。如今美国接连推出QE3和QE4，其他国家抗拒本币升值的愿望显得更加强烈，因为目前全球贸易正遭遇空前的萎靡，新兴市场出口商有更强烈的保护市场份额的冲动；其二，与之前有时间限制的定量宽松不同，QE3和QE4是开放式计划，意味着只要美联储认为美国就业市场没有显著改善，就可以一直让自己的印钞机工作下去。
发达经济体也难逃量化宽松之苦
发达经济体也难逃量化宽松之苦，日本首当其冲。本来自今年3月以来，日元一直处于小幅上升趋势，同时日本经济也有所复苏。但由于钓鱼岛事件和欧美货币贬值，日本出口有剧跌的可能性，所以日本央行不得不放开闸门，向市场推出新一轮凭空印出的货币，以保护出口。
9月19日，日本央行决定将资产购买计划的规模从70万亿日元扩大至80万亿日元，并将该计划的有效期延长6个月至2013年底。其实日本央行也是迫于无奈，如果日本央行仍然按兵不动，只是在言语上继续对日元升势表示担忧，那么日元将再获避险资金青睐，且在全球宽松浪潮的影响下，一旦热钱大规模流入造成的通胀泡沫将令日本无法承受。
欧元区则行动早得多。欧央行行长德拉吉9月6日宣布，该行将启动直接货币交易(OMP)计划，在二级市场无限量购买成员国国债，以压低成员国融资成本，应对欧债危机，促进欧元区经济复苏。
无独有偶，英国央行也公布了9月5-6日货币政策委员会会议纪要。会议纪要显示，一些货币政策委员会委员认为未来更有可能需要扩大资产购买规模。至此，英国宽松政策预期也重新燃起。
澳大利亚央行也在9月18日发布9月货币政策会议纪要称，“鉴于对通胀前景的评估，假如澳大利亚经济增长前景严重恶化，未来仍有进一步降息的空间。”
新兴经济体更不堪其忧
美联储和伯南克过去在为定量宽松辩护时，总是会提到该政策在振兴美国经济的同时也会让其他国家受益，因为随着美国经济复苏，美国对其他国家产品的需求也会增加。但很遗憾，世界对此并不领情。巴西财长曼特加甚至给其贴上了“自私”的标签。这不是一时的情绪之举。就在美联储宣布推出QE4之后，国际油价应声上涨，全球立刻为可能到来的通胀高企感到忧虑。
巴西尤为紧张，11月巴西通胀率从十月份的5.45%反弹至5.53%。同时，巴西经济增长减速明显，尽管在过去一年来，巴西政府推出了系列财政刺激政策，但该国三季度GDP同比增0.9%、环比仅增0.6%，创近年来的最低增速。
而受通胀率高企和经济放缓的影响，在经历连续10次降息后，巴西央行在上月28日宣布维持基准利率于纪录低点7.25%不变，并表示将兼顾保增长和控通胀的任务，暗示将在未来一段时间内维持该利率水平不变。
同为新兴经济体的印度日子也不好过。今年第三季度印度经济同比增长5.3%，低于第二季度的5.5%，这已经是印度经济增速连续第三个季度低于6%，远逊于前两年的增长速度；同时该国的通胀率却已经维持在7%以上。
对此，10月31日印度央行宣布，维持目前8%的基准利率不变，但下调存款准备金率25个基点至4.25%，为市场注入流动性刺激经济。
日本央行行长白川方明对发达市场大量宽松信贷流向世界其它地方所引起的“连带损害”发出警告。“随着全球化的不断深化，没有一个负责任的政策制定者现在能够对跨境溢出效应和自己政策的反馈效应置之不理，”，他还呼吁发达经济体的官员们更加耐心。但战争一旦打响，呼吁就被淹没在呼啸的炮弹声中了.
海龟交易法————唐奇安通道突破法
相信大家应该都听过“海龟”的故事，这也许是有史以来最成功的交易员培训课程。如果不知道的朋友可以百度一下。
在《海龟交易法》这本书中提到了一个指标————唐奇安通道。这个通道是由最近20（n）根k线的最高点组成的。
交易系统总共分为2个：1.系统1以20日突破为基础的短期系统。
2.系统2以55日突破为基础的长期系统。
入市策略：交易系统1的原则也就是在向上突破进20日最高点的第一刻买入，在向下突破20日最高点的第一刻卖出。
止损策略：在设置止损上这套系统以20日ATR来设，保证每笔亏损在账户净值的1%以下。好比EURUSD的20日ATR的N值为50点。账户净值为50000，那么账户的1%也就是500，那可推算出入市的第一笔交易应该在1手左右。
加仓策略：海龟交易系统的加仓策略是以1/2N来加仓的，还以20日的ATR为40点为例 ，那么加仓就以入市价格每20点加仓一次，海龟交易系统的满仓是只加仓加到第5个单位为满，也就是加仓4次为满仓。止损价依旧是ATR的N值40点。
假设：账户净值50000美元
欧元上破20日最高点1.3300，那么就以1.3300做多1标准手EURUSD作为第一笔头寸.止损以40点.
第一次加仓：1.3320 止损1.3280
第二次加仓：1.3340 止损1.3300
第三次加仓：1.3360 止损1.3320
第四次加仓 :1.3380 止损1.3340(满仓)
止盈策略:海龟交易系统的止盈策略其实就是保护止损策略.以做多为例.做多的入场策略是以20日高点突破为入场依据.则此交易系统的止盈策略就是10日低点向下突破止盈.平调手中所有空单.
交易系统2与交易系统向类似,只要把ATR参数调成55就行,止盈策略就是反向突破25日高点低点为退出策略.
我一直在找唐奇安通道的MT4指标,可是一直没有找到所以无法自己截图上来给大家看了.(以下截图来自互联网.无意侵犯版权.)
个人对海龟交易系统的看法:海龟交易系统是一个非常优秀的趋势交易系统,碰上长而持久的趋势,海龟的表现会异常的出色.但是这个系统的缺点也非常明显.碰到震荡的行情很容易出现比较大幅度的亏损.并且个人认为这个系统对喜欢赚快钱的小账户来说并不太适用。
在《海龟交易法》这本书中提到了一个指标————唐奇安通道。这个通道是由最近20（n）根k线的最高点组成的。
交易系统总共分为2个：1.系统1以20日突破为基础的短期系统。
2.系统2以55日突破为基础的长期系统。
入市策略：交易系统1的原则也就是在向上突破进20日最高点的第一刻买入，在向下突破20日最高点的第一刻卖出。
止损策略：在设置止损上这套系统以20日ATR来设，保证每笔亏损在账户净值的1%以下。好比EURUSD的20日ATR的N值为50点。账户净值为50000，那么账户的1%也就是500，那可推算出入市的第一笔交易应该在1手左右。
加仓策略：海龟交易系统的加仓策略是以1/2N来加仓的，还以20日的ATR为40点为例 ，那么加仓就以入市价格每20点加仓一次，海龟交易系统的满仓是只加仓加到第5个单位为满，也就是加仓4次为满仓。止损价依旧是ATR的N值40点。
假设：账户净值50000美元
欧元上破20日最高点1.3300，那么就以1.3300做多1标准手EURUSD作为第一笔头寸.止损以40点.
第一次加仓：1.3320 止损1.3280
第二次加仓：1.3340 止损1.3300
第三次加仓：1.3360 止损1.3320
第四次加仓 :1.3380 止损1.3340(满仓)
止盈策略:海龟交易系统的止盈策略其实就是保护止损策略.以做多为例.做多的入场策略是以20日高点突破为入场依据.则此交易系统的止盈策略就是10日低点向下突破止盈.平调手中所有空单.
交易系统2与交易系统向类似,只要把ATR参数调成55就行,止盈策略就是反向突破25日高点低点为退出策略.
我一直在找唐奇安通道的MT4指标,可是一直没有找到所以无法自己截图上来给大家看了.(以下截图来自互联网.无意侵犯版权.)
个人对海龟交易系统的看法:海龟交易系统是一个非常优秀的趋势交易系统,碰上长而持久的趋势,海龟的表现会异常的出色.但是这个系统的缺点也非常明显.碰到震荡的行情很容易出现比较大幅度的亏损.并且个人认为这个系统对喜欢赚快钱的小账户来说并不太适用。
海龟交易法则适合做外汇市场？
之前有研究了一下海龟交易法则，理查·丹尼斯确实是个牛人，但是毕竟早在80年代的美国期货是占市场主导的，但是根据他的法则呢，咱们讨论一下它在现在的外汇市场的可行性。
不懂的筒子可以先百度文库看看《海龟法则》。
核心：抓一大波趋势
重点：依据均线为参照，突破20日均线进场，止损为2个N（N为20日的平均波动价格，比如前20日的平均波动价格为每天波动100点，止损即为100点），每升1N加仓。获利后回到10日均线出场。
优点：有单边大行情狂赚，例如近期的美日上涨。
缺点：遇到波动行情容易止损。平均10单要损8单。但是损的单子基本上都是没加仓过的。
个人看法：周期越大越不易止损。毕竟这个交易法是根据长线设计的。初期做容易损到心态改变，所以做这个交易法则的10个人有8个人最终坚持不住。
QE4靴子落地 美元还是震荡市
QE4后，美元会暴跌吗？市场已经给出了回答：市场喜欢震荡市，美元不会暴跌，也不会大涨，而这恰恰是美联储乐见的。
美联储在此时推出QE4，同时设置货币政策目标，显然有两个目的：一是不希望美元太强，因为美国经济正在走向复苏的关键时期，美国的实体经济尤其是能源产业需要流动性。当然，美国的社保资金体系也需要流动性，预防财政悬崖更需要流动性。但这种流动性并非完全负面。同时，美联储不希望给人以不负责任的印象，超宽松的货币政策必须有个说法，有个结束期。现在设置了政策目标，而失业率降低至6.5%并非遥不可及，因此不能得出美联储就会印钞票的简单结论。市场看准了这一点，顺势而为的结果就是震荡市。
美联储此时推出QE4的目的有很强的预防意味。美国的民主制度制约着美国的福利政策，它要求国家财政必须保证绝大多数人最基本生活，而在温饱解决之后，就是住房和医保、社保。同时，美国必须保持经济活力，而经济的创造力往往来自于高收入人群，怎么持续地激发这部分人的活力，与税收政策密切相关。
从全球范围看，高赤字、高负债、货币政策债券化，已经成为西方国家的流行病。美国的社保支出几乎占财政开支的三分之一 （2011年用于社保和医保的资金总额超过了1万亿美元，占美国政府预算的三分之一）。巨大的财政黑洞加上美联储的不负责任，很可能得出更简单的结论：美元将暴跌！
这是错的。全球外汇市场是各国货币或汇率比较的市场，美国的财政赤字并非失控。美国所谓的财政悬崖，也是对财政紧缩的一种“强迫”，即两党如果截止12月31日仍然互不相让，将令美国政府立即跌落“财政悬崖”，同时对等的紧缩措施立即自动启动，包括同时削减对穷人的福利开支并对等地增加富人的税收，由此强迫性的解决财政赤字无限扩大的难题。
财政紧缩后，最大的难题是如何确保经济复苏，因此财政政策与货币政策不能同时收紧。考虑到美国经济与西方其他国家目前的差距，笔者以为，美联储看到失业率降低至6.5%是有可能的，最快可能不需要一年。如何克服紧缩对经济增长的负面影响，美国比其他西方国家更有办法。
欧元区是个深陷债务危机的地区，目前连德法两国的经济也在下滑。其最大的问题是找不到新的经济增长点，完全靠老一套——出口、精细加工。这很难实现新的经济飞跃。日本的经济增长主要也是靠内生的增长潜力。因此，美国的优势就显现出来了。美国的制造业本来就不差，以前大量外流主要是寻求 “成本洼地”。现在美国企业回归必将成为潮流。这自然会降低失业率。更重要的是，美国制造业的主要特点是技术含量高，知识产权需要严密保护。这方面的考虑将加速美国企业的回归。
相比较其他西方国家，美国最大的优势还是能源产业。美国是西方国家中唯一敢于宣布将在2030年实现能源自给并且有出口潜力的国家。美国能源情报署负责人亚当·席明斯基表示，2013年美国原油日产量有望自1992年以来首次突破700万桶。能源产业是需要大量资金投入，同时也是吸纳劳动力较多的产业，可以看出，QE4并非只是撒钱，而是实实在在地支持实体经济。从目前看，美国的失业率是西方国家中唯一开始出现下降趋势的国家，这不仅证明，美国经济的基本面好于其他西方国家，而且说明，美国的实体经济的确在复苏。这源于美国经济内生的增长潜力得到了挖掘。而这个潜力在欧元区和日本是看不到的。
从短期看，美元指数并不会很快升值——除了美元兑日元。美国财政悬崖临近的那一刹那，对美元还是有杀伤力的，尤其是在绝大多数人对美国政府能否走好钢丝还抱怀疑态度的时候。但笔者还是要强调：市场喜欢震荡市，美联储也能控制住美元涨跌，未来不会出现美元大幅度下跌的趋势。
浅谈海龟交易法则
要了解海龟交易法则，首先要明白什幺是平均真实波动范围。
平均真实波动范围（Average True Range）简称ATR指标，是由J.Welles Wilder 发明的，ATR指标主要是用来衡量市场波动的强烈度，即为了显示市场变化率的指标。
ATR指标并没有指示价格方向的信息，只有价格变化的强烈程度的信息。
ATR指标的分析为：若ATR指标值越高，则价格趋势逆转的机率就越大；相反若ATR指标值越小，则价格趋势的逆转机率就越小。
TR指标的具体计算方式为：
Step 1、首先要计算出真实的波动（True Range）简称TR的值
TR=Max（︱现在最高价-现在最低价或当日最高位-当日最低位︳，︳现在最高价-上一个的收盘价或当日最高位-昨日收市价︳，︳现在最低价-上一个的收盘价或当日最低位-昨日收市价︳）
注解：Max即为取括号里的三个绝对值的最大值。Step 2、接下来我们就可以算出ATR的值
ATR=SUM (TR , N ) ÷N
但是为了是ATR曲线比较平滑，它的计算公式变为：
ATR t=[ATRt-1×(N-1)＋ATR t]÷N
海龟交易法
海龟交易法则发明人William Eckhardt发现可以用移动平均的概念去理解波幅、管理注码和订立止蚀位。海龟将一个基于波动性的常数百分比(TR或N)用作测算买卖规模的标准。简单说，就是以股价波动幅度来决定买卖数量的大小，波动剧烈的少量买卖，反之则大量买卖，因为波动大的股票，即使少量买卖，其预期的收益也比买入大量波动小的股票少。
海龟交易法则应用有三个特点：
风险技巧
海龟交易系统规定任何一笔交易都不能出现2%或2N(因人而异)以上的风险。海龟系统止损的好处由于海龟的止损以ATR为基础，因此，它们能够适应市场的波动性。更不稳定的市场有更宽的止损，但是，每个单位的买卖数量也会更少。这等于是把风险分散在所有的入市决策上，这样会导致更好的多样化和更为健全的风险管理。
获利出局/叠注技巧
海龟交易系统不会同意过早地退出赢小利，即过早地“落袋为安”，是采用趋势跟随系统交易时最为常见的错误之一。其观点是价格从来不会直来直去；因此，如果你想赶上一段趋势就有必要让价格背离你运动。在趋势的早期，这通常可能意味着眼看着5%到10%可观的利润逐渐成为小幅亏损。在趋势的中期，这可能意味着眼看着80%到100%的利润下降40%到60%。锁定利润的诱惑可能比减轻仓位大。赚钱才加注，止蚀只会向上移而不会下移，定期锁定利润(Lock Profit)
撤退机制
离场时机有二：一是跌破前一底；一是见过高位后，没有大型回调。反是横行半死不活，可先食糊锁定利润。可能稍稍输蚀，胜在不用锁死宝贵资金。
记住：一、绝不为亏损交易加码 = 股票跌了，你加仓摊薄，结果跌得更多；跌了就不加仓 ，要止损 ；二、为赢利交易加码 = 天天涨，当然要加仓，结果赚得更多。
平均真实波动范围（Average True Range）简称ATR指标，是由J.Welles Wilder 发明的，ATR指标主要是用来衡量市场波动的强烈度，即为了显示市场变化率的指标。
ATR指标并没有指示价格方向的信息，只有价格变化的强烈程度的信息。
ATR指标的分析为：若ATR指标值越高，则价格趋势逆转的机率就越大；相反若ATR指标值越小，则价格趋势的逆转机率就越小。
TR指标的具体计算方式为：
Step 1、首先要计算出真实的波动（True Range）简称TR的值
TR=Max（︱现在最高价-现在最低价或当日最高位-当日最低位︳，︳现在最高价-上一个的收盘价或当日最高位-昨日收市价︳，︳现在最低价-上一个的收盘价或当日最低位-昨日收市价︳）
注解：Max即为取括号里的三个绝对值的最大值。Step 2、接下来我们就可以算出ATR的值
ATR=SUM (TR , N ) ÷N
但是为了是ATR曲线比较平滑，它的计算公式变为：
ATR t=[ATRt-1×(N-1)＋ATR t]÷N
海龟交易法
海龟交易法则发明人William Eckhardt发现可以用移动平均的概念去理解波幅、管理注码和订立止蚀位。海龟将一个基于波动性的常数百分比(TR或N)用作测算买卖规模的标准。简单说，就是以股价波动幅度来决定买卖数量的大小，波动剧烈的少量买卖，反之则大量买卖，因为波动大的股票，即使少量买卖，其预期的收益也比买入大量波动小的股票少。
海龟交易法则应用有三个特点：
风险技巧
海龟交易系统规定任何一笔交易都不能出现2%或2N(因人而异)以上的风险。海龟系统止损的好处由于海龟的止损以ATR为基础，因此，它们能够适应市场的波动性。更不稳定的市场有更宽的止损，但是，每个单位的买卖数量也会更少。这等于是把风险分散在所有的入市决策上，这样会导致更好的多样化和更为健全的风险管理。
获利出局/叠注技巧
海龟交易系统不会同意过早地退出赢小利，即过早地“落袋为安”，是采用趋势跟随系统交易时最为常见的错误之一。其观点是价格从来不会直来直去；因此，如果你想赶上一段趋势就有必要让价格背离你运动。在趋势的早期，这通常可能意味着眼看着5%到10%可观的利润逐渐成为小幅亏损。在趋势的中期，这可能意味着眼看着80%到100%的利润下降40%到60%。锁定利润的诱惑可能比减轻仓位大。赚钱才加注，止蚀只会向上移而不会下移，定期锁定利润(Lock Profit)
撤退机制
离场时机有二：一是跌破前一底；一是见过高位后，没有大型回调。反是横行半死不活，可先食糊锁定利润。可能稍稍输蚀，胜在不用锁死宝贵资金。
记住：一、绝不为亏损交易加码 = 股票跌了，你加仓摊薄，结果跌得更多；跌了就不加仓 ，要止损 ；二、为赢利交易加码 = 天天涨，当然要加仓，结果赚得更多。
期货交易心得：那些让我们无法安宁的死穴
漫步在投机长河的期市岸堤，放眼在汹涌水浪中挣扎的扭曲的身形与面孔，感触万端。期货市场像其他市场一样，其本身是一个中性的事物，它与谁都没有天生的宿愿与恩仇！它从不会主动地去伤害任何一个人！然而，我们却极不情愿地看到，每个交易日都会有很多人血淋淋地惨倒在这个自以为能实现辉煌的梦乡！是什么造成了这一残酷的事实？！是什么使交易者的希望变成绝望，把交易这梦中的辉煌摔得遍体鳞伤？！答案不是市场，不是机构，不是别人，不是除你之外的任何事物！是你自己点中了自己的死穴！知道么？这些让我们无法安宁的死穴：
1、不懂分寸
资金管理从来都应该是投机交易的核心内容，它的地位甚至于可以凌驾于交易的其他法则之上。交易者如果在这一环节上没有自己的原则与分寸，那么其长久获利的可能将化为泡影！事实上，任何极端都可能造成永远的伤痛与遗憾！
过量交易也即赌博式交易，其基于急功近利一夜暴富的侥幸思维，用大比例的杠杆重仓下手，这是许多交易者爆仓的主要原因。
我们都清楚，交易是对不确定的未来情况的处理，无论你采取什么方法你都不能绝对保证你认定的情况就一定会发生，既然是这样，你为什么还要全仓买入？市场中很多人把期货当做赌博看待，从而在自以为是的交易中全仓杀入，得手时意气风发得意洋洋，可这种习惯的最后结局就是：只要你还没有幸运地提前离开市场，那么这个市场就是你那资金的最后故乡！交易的最大诱惑和悲哀就是即使什么也不懂，也会偶尔做对一次或几次。然而就是这仅仅的一次或几次蒙对，给你带来的习惯却是膨胀自我、没有分寸！让你放弃了应有的自控，以致最后梦断疆场
2、不做节度
有的交易者因为重仓而亡，但很多人轻仓却也没能逃脱同样的命运，其原因是频繁进出，过度交易！操作过于频繁,过于关注趋势的小的变化而频繁交易，这是大多数投资者失败的另一重要原因。频繁操作不但使我们付出了高昂的交易费用,更主要的是使我们的精神高度紧张,稍有不慎导致亏损更会因此使我们的心态变坏,而因此错上加错. 从心理上的角度看，就是没有计划，下随手单，下情绪单，最后搞的心态很坏，赔率很高，像钝刀子割肉，一点一点地割没了。
市场冷酷无情，它专门修理那些随着自己的情绪而胡乱交易的人。频繁交易最后非常可怕的心理魔障就是‘破罐子破摔’的自虐倾向，这是过度交易最后的必然恶果！市场是公平的，连你自己都不爱惜你自己的金钱和交易了，你还指望市场的同情吗？
3、不知进退
买卖是交易成败的开端，好的入局点、出局点以及在行情发展过程中的节奏把握，是交易者必须深入研究的课题。这是交易者的技术武器和装备，如果在这一点上，交易者没有自己的系统方法和原则执行，其蒙受损失是绝对的必然。事实上，很多交易者就是在对市场知之太少的情况下,盲目地进入市场的,这是导致期货交易者大面积亏损的最主要原因之一,其实期货行业也和其它的行业一样,不经过系统的学习,不经历大量的实践是不可能成功的. 交易策略的一致性是在市场中稳定获利、长久生存的必要条件。不同的进场依据对应不同的出场策略，任何混淆、模糊不清都会招致失败。如果没有经过系统化设计的交易策略，则在任何环节上都可能出问题，而且这些问题很难单独解决，并且孤立的检视心态并不能真正的解决问题，一个成熟的投资人应该有全方位的检视自己的能力。
4、不愿放弃
在期市交易中，操作失误是常有的事情，亏损本身就是交易的成本，亏损的交易是正常的，也是不可避免的，它是你整个交易过程的一部分。但一旦方向做错而不肯认错，怀抱侥幸而不能壮士断腕，则就可能造成大的亏损，久而久之，交易最终的失败就在所难免了。
不愿放弃，死不认错，一方面是投机理念上的误区，是虚荣心作祟，是心理上的障碍；一旦开仓以后，不设止损，战战兢兢地等待，就像把自己绑在了一辆没有刹车系统，随时都要倾覆的的汽车上，侥幸地希望价格能向自己开仓的方向运动。可是投机不是赌博，侥幸和运气不能永远伴随着你，要想稳定获利，还是要靠自己真正的实力。市场有其自身运行的规则，是不以任何人意志为转移的，侥幸心理这一不良的交易习惯，要在自己的交易行为中，彻底根除，否则后患无穷。
不愿放弃，死不认错，另一方面就是技术上的因素。没有下止损单限制其损失,或者是下了止损单没有严格执行,形同虚设；片面地追求胜率，恐惧亏损的交易，最后的结局却往往正是你不愿看到和得到的那种极不情愿的结果！
5、不做反省
在期货交易里；失败是再正常不过的事情。有因我们对市场不清楚的无知造成的失败，有因我们的贪婪造成的失败，有因我们的恐惧造成的失败，等等、等等不一而足。期货投资是一个贯穿矛盾一个过程；曾有人问IBM公司的创始人汤姆.沃森怎样才能获得成功，当时沃森回答说，如果想成功，首先应该经历失败。温斯顿.丘吉尔也说：“成功就是不断从一个失败走向另一个失败，却始终热情不减。”
困难的不是失败，而是来自失败之后的反省！是在失败中学习，而使自己不会在以后的交易中重蹈覆辙！如果你不能在失败中汲取教训，吸收你本该得到的经验，那么你的失败就白白地失败了，那么你的失败就还会延续，那么你最终得到的就仍会是失败！！！
成熟而成功的交易者无一不是以乐观的心态，凭借狂热的激情、坚强的意志，无论道路多么艰难，无论经受多大危机，无论承受多少肉体和精神的折磨，始终在成功与失败之间学习、反省，并最终获得巨大成功。福韦尔.柏克斯顿曾说：人与人之间，弱者与强者之间，小人物与大人物之间最大的差异就在于学习的态度，就在于反省的深度，就在于行动的尺度！
1、不懂分寸
资金管理从来都应该是投机交易的核心内容，它的地位甚至于可以凌驾于交易的其他法则之上。交易者如果在这一环节上没有自己的原则与分寸，那么其长久获利的可能将化为泡影！事实上，任何极端都可能造成永远的伤痛与遗憾！
过量交易也即赌博式交易，其基于急功近利一夜暴富的侥幸思维，用大比例的杠杆重仓下手，这是许多交易者爆仓的主要原因。
我们都清楚，交易是对不确定的未来情况的处理，无论你采取什么方法你都不能绝对保证你认定的情况就一定会发生，既然是这样，你为什么还要全仓买入？市场中很多人把期货当做赌博看待，从而在自以为是的交易中全仓杀入，得手时意气风发得意洋洋，可这种习惯的最后结局就是：只要你还没有幸运地提前离开市场，那么这个市场就是你那资金的最后故乡！交易的最大诱惑和悲哀就是即使什么也不懂，也会偶尔做对一次或几次。然而就是这仅仅的一次或几次蒙对，给你带来的习惯却是膨胀自我、没有分寸！让你放弃了应有的自控，以致最后梦断疆场
2、不做节度
有的交易者因为重仓而亡，但很多人轻仓却也没能逃脱同样的命运，其原因是频繁进出，过度交易！操作过于频繁,过于关注趋势的小的变化而频繁交易，这是大多数投资者失败的另一重要原因。频繁操作不但使我们付出了高昂的交易费用,更主要的是使我们的精神高度紧张,稍有不慎导致亏损更会因此使我们的心态变坏,而因此错上加错. 从心理上的角度看，就是没有计划，下随手单，下情绪单，最后搞的心态很坏，赔率很高，像钝刀子割肉，一点一点地割没了。
市场冷酷无情，它专门修理那些随着自己的情绪而胡乱交易的人。频繁交易最后非常可怕的心理魔障就是‘破罐子破摔’的自虐倾向，这是过度交易最后的必然恶果！市场是公平的，连你自己都不爱惜你自己的金钱和交易了，你还指望市场的同情吗？
3、不知进退
买卖是交易成败的开端，好的入局点、出局点以及在行情发展过程中的节奏把握，是交易者必须深入研究的课题。这是交易者的技术武器和装备，如果在这一点上，交易者没有自己的系统方法和原则执行，其蒙受损失是绝对的必然。事实上，很多交易者就是在对市场知之太少的情况下,盲目地进入市场的,这是导致期货交易者大面积亏损的最主要原因之一,其实期货行业也和其它的行业一样,不经过系统的学习,不经历大量的实践是不可能成功的. 交易策略的一致性是在市场中稳定获利、长久生存的必要条件。不同的进场依据对应不同的出场策略，任何混淆、模糊不清都会招致失败。如果没有经过系统化设计的交易策略，则在任何环节上都可能出问题，而且这些问题很难单独解决，并且孤立的检视心态并不能真正的解决问题，一个成熟的投资人应该有全方位的检视自己的能力。
4、不愿放弃
在期市交易中，操作失误是常有的事情，亏损本身就是交易的成本，亏损的交易是正常的，也是不可避免的，它是你整个交易过程的一部分。但一旦方向做错而不肯认错，怀抱侥幸而不能壮士断腕，则就可能造成大的亏损，久而久之，交易最终的失败就在所难免了。
不愿放弃，死不认错，一方面是投机理念上的误区，是虚荣心作祟，是心理上的障碍；一旦开仓以后，不设止损，战战兢兢地等待，就像把自己绑在了一辆没有刹车系统，随时都要倾覆的的汽车上，侥幸地希望价格能向自己开仓的方向运动。可是投机不是赌博，侥幸和运气不能永远伴随着你，要想稳定获利，还是要靠自己真正的实力。市场有其自身运行的规则，是不以任何人意志为转移的，侥幸心理这一不良的交易习惯，要在自己的交易行为中，彻底根除，否则后患无穷。
不愿放弃，死不认错，另一方面就是技术上的因素。没有下止损单限制其损失,或者是下了止损单没有严格执行,形同虚设；片面地追求胜率，恐惧亏损的交易，最后的结局却往往正是你不愿看到和得到的那种极不情愿的结果！
5、不做反省
在期货交易里；失败是再正常不过的事情。有因我们对市场不清楚的无知造成的失败，有因我们的贪婪造成的失败，有因我们的恐惧造成的失败，等等、等等不一而足。期货投资是一个贯穿矛盾一个过程；曾有人问IBM公司的创始人汤姆.沃森怎样才能获得成功，当时沃森回答说，如果想成功，首先应该经历失败。温斯顿.丘吉尔也说：“成功就是不断从一个失败走向另一个失败，却始终热情不减。”
困难的不是失败，而是来自失败之后的反省！是在失败中学习，而使自己不会在以后的交易中重蹈覆辙！如果你不能在失败中汲取教训，吸收你本该得到的经验，那么你的失败就白白地失败了，那么你的失败就还会延续，那么你最终得到的就仍会是失败！！！
成熟而成功的交易者无一不是以乐观的心态，凭借狂热的激情、坚强的意志，无论道路多么艰难，无论经受多大危机，无论承受多少肉体和精神的折磨，始终在成功与失败之间学习、反省，并最终获得巨大成功。福韦尔.柏克斯顿曾说：人与人之间，弱者与强者之间，小人物与大人物之间最大的差异就在于学习的态度，就在于反省的深度，就在于行动的尺度！
李斌的期货之路
一位职业炒家，入行初期屡战屡败，输得一干二净的噩梦一再重演，最窘迫时候身负沉重债务。而他卧薪尝胆，最终从哪里跌倒还从哪里爬了起来，连续六年内年年丰收，每年收益均达到80%以上，成为真正的职业杀手。
李斌，一个普通的名字却拥有着绝非普通的经历。
“我1993年刚从北京首都经济学院毕业就开始投身金融交易行业，记得当年10月份开始在一家期货公司炒外汇（那时侯一些期货公司还有外汇保证金交易），初入行基本上是瞎子摸象、胡做一气。时至今日记得最清楚的是那年春节，1994年2月14日即大年初一，当时的日本首相细川护熙和美国总统克林顿因汽车、钢铁贸易谈判破裂导致日圆当天大幅升值600点，而我之前持有沽空日圆的头寸，结果当天爆仓。这也是我第一次重大挫折。”
刚入行不久便将所有本钱亏得干干净净，李斌并没有因此退缩。但不久国家将外汇保证金交易市场关停，他只能转向期货市场继续拼杀，希望能一圆自己的成功梦。没想到的是噩梦还在后头。
“后来再做期货，自己已经没有本钱了，转而帮助客户操作。经历了327国债风波等一系列中国期货市场发生过的几件大事，期间赚赚赔赔，尝过苦头也尝过甜头。但在交易上仍旧是迷迷糊糊，不知为何赚钱也不知为何亏钱。”
“记得那是1995年的事情了，当时帮一个客户操作，说好亏损达到20%就停止交易。但真的亏损了20%时候，由于侥幸心理作怪，我瞒着客户继续交易。可想而知，在急于扳本的心态下结果会是怎样———最后15万元的帐户上亏得就剩下4万块了。后来是纸包不住火了，客户不依不饶，逼我写下8万欠条，说好一年后还清。要知道那时候北京平均工资才几百块钱，我要是去找一份一个月2000元的工作，即使不吃不喝3年也还不清这笔债。而只有期货市场才能让我快速挣钱还债，于是我决定还是从哪里跌倒就从哪里爬起来。写下欠条后（当时瞒着家人朋友，直到后来还清后才告知他们），我处于失业状态，每天在家苦读投资书籍，生活上就靠女朋友（现在的爱人）每月500元工资维持，这样的日子持续了大半年。”
“《投机智慧》———至今我仍在不断向朋友推荐的一本好书，可以说是令我真正开窍的一本书。书中描写的美国十位最出色的期货外汇炒家，他们交易方法各不相同，但却同样有严格的资金管理和风险控制方案，没有一位是依靠赌博获得成功的。时至今日，一些朋友把外汇、期货市场比做赌场，我还是会耐心的告诉他们———这绝不是赌场，纯粹的赌是靠运气的，而幸运之神不会一直跟着你。投资不过是一场关于如何衡量胜算的游戏，你所要做的是计算每一笔交易的风险报酬比，并判断这笔交易是否划算，然后投入你所能承受风险的资金，记住永远给自己留下下一次交易的机会等等。”
“关于投资理念，我总结出的体会记了厚厚的一叠笔记本。其中在媒体上发表过一篇《客观基础上的主观性———期货交易总体思想》，基本上囊括了1995-1996年苦思冥想后打开的思路：交易方法一定要具备客观性，而任何人的主观能动性的发挥应建立在客观的基础上。1996年下半年开始，我研究出一套程式化交易系统，实验过程中初步尝到了甜头，当时客户亦再给了我一年的还债宽限期，使得我有机会在1997年真正运用交易系统进入期货市场/当时我真是一无所有，有的仅仅是这一套交易系统。”
1997年李斌结婚，也正是从这一年起他步入投资的康庄大道。他不仅在短短一年里管理的资金规模从40万达到1000多万，当年还清债务，同时也迅速使自己奔向小康———房子、车子等等完全从期货市场中赢取，并且连续六年至今保持80%的年平均投资回报率。
李斌，一个普通的名字却拥有着绝非普通的经历。
“我1993年刚从北京首都经济学院毕业就开始投身金融交易行业，记得当年10月份开始在一家期货公司炒外汇（那时侯一些期货公司还有外汇保证金交易），初入行基本上是瞎子摸象、胡做一气。时至今日记得最清楚的是那年春节，1994年2月14日即大年初一，当时的日本首相细川护熙和美国总统克林顿因汽车、钢铁贸易谈判破裂导致日圆当天大幅升值600点，而我之前持有沽空日圆的头寸，结果当天爆仓。这也是我第一次重大挫折。”
刚入行不久便将所有本钱亏得干干净净，李斌并没有因此退缩。但不久国家将外汇保证金交易市场关停，他只能转向期货市场继续拼杀，希望能一圆自己的成功梦。没想到的是噩梦还在后头。
“后来再做期货，自己已经没有本钱了，转而帮助客户操作。经历了327国债风波等一系列中国期货市场发生过的几件大事，期间赚赚赔赔，尝过苦头也尝过甜头。但在交易上仍旧是迷迷糊糊，不知为何赚钱也不知为何亏钱。”
“记得那是1995年的事情了，当时帮一个客户操作，说好亏损达到20%就停止交易。但真的亏损了20%时候，由于侥幸心理作怪，我瞒着客户继续交易。可想而知，在急于扳本的心态下结果会是怎样———最后15万元的帐户上亏得就剩下4万块了。后来是纸包不住火了，客户不依不饶，逼我写下8万欠条，说好一年后还清。要知道那时候北京平均工资才几百块钱，我要是去找一份一个月2000元的工作，即使不吃不喝3年也还不清这笔债。而只有期货市场才能让我快速挣钱还债，于是我决定还是从哪里跌倒就从哪里爬起来。写下欠条后（当时瞒着家人朋友，直到后来还清后才告知他们），我处于失业状态，每天在家苦读投资书籍，生活上就靠女朋友（现在的爱人）每月500元工资维持，这样的日子持续了大半年。”
“《投机智慧》———至今我仍在不断向朋友推荐的一本好书，可以说是令我真正开窍的一本书。书中描写的美国十位最出色的期货外汇炒家，他们交易方法各不相同，但却同样有严格的资金管理和风险控制方案，没有一位是依靠赌博获得成功的。时至今日，一些朋友把外汇、期货市场比做赌场，我还是会耐心的告诉他们———这绝不是赌场，纯粹的赌是靠运气的，而幸运之神不会一直跟着你。投资不过是一场关于如何衡量胜算的游戏，你所要做的是计算每一笔交易的风险报酬比，并判断这笔交易是否划算，然后投入你所能承受风险的资金，记住永远给自己留下下一次交易的机会等等。”
“关于投资理念，我总结出的体会记了厚厚的一叠笔记本。其中在媒体上发表过一篇《客观基础上的主观性———期货交易总体思想》，基本上囊括了1995-1996年苦思冥想后打开的思路：交易方法一定要具备客观性，而任何人的主观能动性的发挥应建立在客观的基础上。1996年下半年开始，我研究出一套程式化交易系统，实验过程中初步尝到了甜头，当时客户亦再给了我一年的还债宽限期，使得我有机会在1997年真正运用交易系统进入期货市场/当时我真是一无所有，有的仅仅是这一套交易系统。”
1997年李斌结婚，也正是从这一年起他步入投资的康庄大道。他不仅在短短一年里管理的资金规模从40万达到1000多万，当年还清债务，同时也迅速使自己奔向小康———房子、车子等等完全从期货市场中赢取，并且连续六年至今保持80%的年平均投资回报率。
在国内市场取得成功的李斌并没有沾沾自喜，2001年又把眼光放到了国际市场。
“不论是外汇还是期货投资，其原理都是相通的。基本上市场以趋势的方式运行，不管是什么利多还是利空因素最终都要反映到价格上，价格是市场最客观的反映，我只要捕捉价格运行的趋势变化就有机会获利。而最重要的还是资金管理与风险控制这类老生常谈的话题。我经常在一些投资聚会上讲课，有趣的是很多朋友始终把目光放在我的交易方法上。事实上，在我的交易体系里，我认为方法对于能否从市场获利的重要性仅仅占10%，其余30%是风险控制和资金管理的完整方案，那么还有60%是什么？———纪律，就两字，我认为占了60%。计划再好，没有执行的保障则等同一张废纸。”
正是这样，他在国内国际投资市场上同样迈出了一大步。他于2003年4月开始的外汇交易，及至10月份收益已达140%。他在国内期货投资上亦硕果累累，仅从十一长假过后至今，其投资收益率即达到45%。
“满招损，谦受益”。认识李斌的人都认为他是位朴实的人，从他那张憨厚的脸上永远看不到一丝洋洋自得，最常说的一句话：“只要我一进入市场，就随时准备好举起双手投降”。
“不论是外汇还是期货投资，其原理都是相通的。基本上市场以趋势的方式运行，不管是什么利多还是利空因素最终都要反映到价格上，价格是市场最客观的反映，我只要捕捉价格运行的趋势变化就有机会获利。而最重要的还是资金管理与风险控制这类老生常谈的话题。我经常在一些投资聚会上讲课，有趣的是很多朋友始终把目光放在我的交易方法上。事实上，在我的交易体系里，我认为方法对于能否从市场获利的重要性仅仅占10%，其余30%是风险控制和资金管理的完整方案，那么还有60%是什么？———纪律，就两字，我认为占了60%。计划再好，没有执行的保障则等同一张废纸。”
正是这样，他在国内国际投资市场上同样迈出了一大步。他于2003年4月开始的外汇交易，及至10月份收益已达140%。他在国内期货投资上亦硕果累累，仅从十一长假过后至今，其投资收益率即达到45%。
“满招损，谦受益”。认识李斌的人都认为他是位朴实的人，从他那张憨厚的脸上永远看不到一丝洋洋自得，最常说的一句话：“只要我一进入市场，就随时准备好举起双手投降”。
理查·丹尼斯(Richard Dennis):真理掌握在少数人手里
在美国期货市场里，理查·丹尼斯（RichardDennis）是一位具有传奇色彩的人物。
60年代末，未满20岁的理查·丹尼斯在交易所担任场内跑手，每星期赚40 美元，两、三年后，他觉得时机成熟，准备亲自投入期货市场一试身手。他从亲朋好友处借来l600美元，但因资金不足，只能在合约量较小的芝加哥买了一个“美中交易所”的席位，花去l200美元，剩下的交易本金只有400美元。对绝大多数人来说，400美元从事期货交易，赚钱的可能性根本是微乎其微的，但是在理查·丹尼斯追随趋势的交易原则下，就是这400美元，最终被丹尼斯像变魔术奇迹般地变成了两亿多美元。用他父亲的话说：“理查这四百块钱滚得不错。”在成功之余并亲自培训带出来的十几个徒弟，成为美国期货市场的一支生力军，管理的资金达数十亿美元。
理查·丹尼斯并不是天生就会做期货的，那时他还不满21岁，还不能直接进交易所做，他父亲替他站在里面叫价，他在外面指挥。就这样断断续续地做工两年，赔了大约两千块钱。他满21岁那一天，他父亲松了一口气说：“儿子，你自己去做吧，这一行我可是一窍不通。”刚开始赔多赚少，一月的工资还不够一个小时赔的。1970年，赶上那年玉米闹虫害，很快就将400美元滚成3000美元。他本来是要去读大学的，但只上了一周课便决定退学，专职做期货。有一天他进了张臭单，一下子赔了300美元，心里觉得不服，一转方向又进了一张单，很快又赔了几百。他一咬牙又掉转方向再进一张，就这么来回一折腾，一天就赔掉l／3本金。那一次赔钱教训很深刻，经历了大起大落以后，他学会了掌握节奏：赔钱不称心时，赶紧砍单离场，出去走走或是回家睡一觉，让自己休息一下，避免受情绪影响而作出另外一个错误决定，再也不因亏损而加单或急着捞本。最困难的时候也是最有希望的时候。有时候赔了钱，最不愿再琢磨市场，而往往最好的做单机会就在此时悄悄溜过。只有抓住了应有的赚钱机会，把利润赚足，犯错误时才能够赔得起。另一方面又要学会选择最佳做单时机。理查·丹尼大概估计过，他做单95％的利润来自5%的好单。错过好的机会会影响成绩，这正符合技术分析中常用的一句话“Letprofitsrun，cutlossesshort.”让利润增长，砍掉亏损，过滤掉一些不该进场的单子则能提高收益率。多年后，理查·丹尼斯回忆那段时光时，觉得那笔学费交得很合算，他学到了很多东西。
在1973年的大豆期货的大升行情中，大豆价格突然冲破四美元大关，大部分盲目相信历史的市场人士认为机不可失，大豆将像1972年以前一样在50美分之间上落，在近年的最高位410美分附近齐齐放空，但理查·丹尼斯按照追随趋势的交易原则，顺势买入，大豆升势一如升空火箭，曾连续十天涨停板，价格暴升三倍，在短短的四、五个月的时间内，攀上1297美分的高峰，理查.丹尼斯赚取了足够的钱，并迁移到更大的舞台-----CBOT，芝加哥商品期货交易所。
理查·丹尼斯成功的关键在于及时总结经验教训。他基本上属于无师自通，所有的经验和知识都是在实践中从市场学来的。一般人赚了钱后欣喜若狂，赔了钱后心灰意冷，很少用心去想为什么赚，为什么赔。理查.丹尼斯在赔钱后总是认真反思，找出错误所在，下次争取不再犯。赚钱时则冷静思考对在哪里，同样的方法如何用到其他市场上。这样日积月累下来，自然形成自己一套独特的做单方法：
1、追随趋势
2、技术分析
3、反市场心理
4、风险控制
1、追随趋势：绝对不要一厢情愿认为某一价位是高价区和低价区，自以为是的“逢高卖，逢低买”，抄底、摸顶都是非常危险的。理查·丹尼斯认为能判断对的只是市场可能走的方向，但朝某个方向究竟走多少得由市场去决定。理查·丹尼斯偶尔也破例试一试抄底或摸顶。在1974年的糖交易中，理查·丹尼斯在60美分/磅的价格抛空糖，但是11月时最高升到66美分/磅，后来一路跌到13美分/磅。但他后来又在10美分/磅附近抄底，屡抄屡败，据他自己说，赔的钱超过摸顶抛空下来赚的。所以逆势的结果仍然是得不偿失。做单要顺势，势越强，越容易赚钱。他在交易所现场当交易员，主要是靠跟市场走赚钱。很多人有了利润总是急着离场，甚至在市场涨停板时也急着获利出场，生怕赚到的钱泡汤，这时候邓尼斯总是把单子接下来，第二天总是赚大钱。
2、技术分析：理查·丹尼斯分析行情主要以技术分析为主，并根据自己多年的经验，以跟随大市趋势为原则，与他的合伙人数学博士威廉·厄克哈德，设计了一套电脑程序自动交易系统，但当自动电脑程序自动交易系统与自己的入市灵感背道而驰时，他会选择暂时离场，不买不卖。
3、反市场心理：不要向多数人认同，因为在期货市场大部分人是赔钱的。期货市场有一种“市场心理指标”指出，如果80%的交易者看多，则表示头部不远了，行情会跌；80%的交易者看空，则表示底部不远了，行情会涨。（但对于初入门者须慎之又慎）.
60年代末，未满20岁的理查·丹尼斯在交易所担任场内跑手，每星期赚40 美元，两、三年后，他觉得时机成熟，准备亲自投入期货市场一试身手。他从亲朋好友处借来l600美元，但因资金不足，只能在合约量较小的芝加哥买了一个“美中交易所”的席位，花去l200美元，剩下的交易本金只有400美元。对绝大多数人来说，400美元从事期货交易，赚钱的可能性根本是微乎其微的，但是在理查·丹尼斯追随趋势的交易原则下，就是这400美元，最终被丹尼斯像变魔术奇迹般地变成了两亿多美元。用他父亲的话说：“理查这四百块钱滚得不错。”在成功之余并亲自培训带出来的十几个徒弟，成为美国期货市场的一支生力军，管理的资金达数十亿美元。
理查·丹尼斯并不是天生就会做期货的，那时他还不满21岁，还不能直接进交易所做，他父亲替他站在里面叫价，他在外面指挥。就这样断断续续地做工两年，赔了大约两千块钱。他满21岁那一天，他父亲松了一口气说：“儿子，你自己去做吧，这一行我可是一窍不通。”刚开始赔多赚少，一月的工资还不够一个小时赔的。1970年，赶上那年玉米闹虫害，很快就将400美元滚成3000美元。他本来是要去读大学的，但只上了一周课便决定退学，专职做期货。有一天他进了张臭单，一下子赔了300美元，心里觉得不服，一转方向又进了一张单，很快又赔了几百。他一咬牙又掉转方向再进一张，就这么来回一折腾，一天就赔掉l／3本金。那一次赔钱教训很深刻，经历了大起大落以后，他学会了掌握节奏：赔钱不称心时，赶紧砍单离场，出去走走或是回家睡一觉，让自己休息一下，避免受情绪影响而作出另外一个错误决定，再也不因亏损而加单或急着捞本。最困难的时候也是最有希望的时候。有时候赔了钱，最不愿再琢磨市场，而往往最好的做单机会就在此时悄悄溜过。只有抓住了应有的赚钱机会，把利润赚足，犯错误时才能够赔得起。另一方面又要学会选择最佳做单时机。理查·丹尼大概估计过，他做单95％的利润来自5%的好单。错过好的机会会影响成绩，这正符合技术分析中常用的一句话“Letprofitsrun，cutlossesshort.”让利润增长，砍掉亏损，过滤掉一些不该进场的单子则能提高收益率。多年后，理查·丹尼斯回忆那段时光时，觉得那笔学费交得很合算，他学到了很多东西。
在1973年的大豆期货的大升行情中，大豆价格突然冲破四美元大关，大部分盲目相信历史的市场人士认为机不可失，大豆将像1972年以前一样在50美分之间上落，在近年的最高位410美分附近齐齐放空，但理查·丹尼斯按照追随趋势的交易原则，顺势买入，大豆升势一如升空火箭，曾连续十天涨停板，价格暴升三倍，在短短的四、五个月的时间内，攀上1297美分的高峰，理查.丹尼斯赚取了足够的钱，并迁移到更大的舞台-----CBOT，芝加哥商品期货交易所。
理查·丹尼斯成功的关键在于及时总结经验教训。他基本上属于无师自通，所有的经验和知识都是在实践中从市场学来的。一般人赚了钱后欣喜若狂，赔了钱后心灰意冷，很少用心去想为什么赚，为什么赔。理查.丹尼斯在赔钱后总是认真反思，找出错误所在，下次争取不再犯。赚钱时则冷静思考对在哪里，同样的方法如何用到其他市场上。这样日积月累下来，自然形成自己一套独特的做单方法：
1、追随趋势
2、技术分析
3、反市场心理
4、风险控制
1、追随趋势：绝对不要一厢情愿认为某一价位是高价区和低价区，自以为是的“逢高卖，逢低买”，抄底、摸顶都是非常危险的。理查·丹尼斯认为能判断对的只是市场可能走的方向，但朝某个方向究竟走多少得由市场去决定。理查·丹尼斯偶尔也破例试一试抄底或摸顶。在1974年的糖交易中，理查·丹尼斯在60美分/磅的价格抛空糖，但是11月时最高升到66美分/磅，后来一路跌到13美分/磅。但他后来又在10美分/磅附近抄底，屡抄屡败，据他自己说，赔的钱超过摸顶抛空下来赚的。所以逆势的结果仍然是得不偿失。做单要顺势，势越强，越容易赚钱。他在交易所现场当交易员，主要是靠跟市场走赚钱。很多人有了利润总是急着离场，甚至在市场涨停板时也急着获利出场，生怕赚到的钱泡汤，这时候邓尼斯总是把单子接下来，第二天总是赚大钱。
2、技术分析：理查·丹尼斯分析行情主要以技术分析为主，并根据自己多年的经验，以跟随大市趋势为原则，与他的合伙人数学博士威廉·厄克哈德，设计了一套电脑程序自动交易系统，但当自动电脑程序自动交易系统与自己的入市灵感背道而驰时，他会选择暂时离场，不买不卖。
3、反市场心理：不要向多数人认同，因为在期货市场大部分人是赔钱的。期货市场有一种“市场心理指标”指出，如果80%的交易者看多，则表示头部不远了，行情会跌；80%的交易者看空，则表示底部不远了，行情会涨。（但对于初入门者须慎之又慎）.
1978年理查·丹尼斯决定离开交易所现场，在办公室做单。几年前，期货市场还比较单一，主要是商品期货。到70年代末，外汇、证券等期货市场已逐步成熟。为了从更多的市场获利，理查·丹尼斯决定离开交易所现场，在场外做单。第一年由于不习惯，理查·丹尼斯赔了些钱。后来他发现：离场做单已没有现场做单时那么快捷，因此要看得比较远，多做一些长线。其次在判断走向方面也不大相同。在场内你可以感觉得到，比如有几个人在市场转向时总是错，当你知道他们同时做多头或空头时（美国至今仍然采用人工叫价），你自然就会对市场的走向有较正确的判断。离场后这方面的信息没有了，就得想办法另找判断市场的依据。（对国内大部分的场外投资者来说颇有益处。）
理查.丹尼斯与他的朋友威廉·厄克哈德两人在期货交易方面配合得天衣无缝，一同创下美国期货史上少有的佳绩，但他俩在人生哲学方面却有很大差异。理查·丹尼斯高中毕业后一直做期货，是在实践中杀出来的。威廉·厄克哈德却是饱浸文墨，他们经常争执不休的问题是“究竟一个成功的交易员是天生的还是练出来的?”理查·丹尼斯认为是可以培养的，威廉·厄克哈德则认为更多的是靠天份，两人谁也说服不了谁，干脆打赌验证。为此，他们在1983底和1984年初《华尔街日报》上登寻人广告，寻找一些愿意接受训练成为期货交易者的人。工作条件是：交易者必须搬到芝加哥，接受微薄的底薪，如果交易赚钱可以有20%的分红。慕名前来应聘者上千人，他们从中挑选了80人到芝加哥面试，最后选定23人从事此项训练计划，这23人的背景、学识、爱好、性格各不相同，具有广泛的代表性。
理查·丹尼斯花了两周时间培训，毫无保留教授他们期货交易的基本概念，以及他自己的交易方法和原则。他教导学生追求趋势，先分析决定市场是多头还是空头，进场交易时必须做好资金管理，适当控制买卖单量，并选择时机获利出场。理查·丹尼斯在亚洲参观一家水产养殖场时发现该场繁殖乌龟很有一套，回来后一时兴起称他的徒儿们为“龟儿”。课程结束后，理查·丹尼斯给每人一个10万美元的帐户进行实战练习。这些龟儿还真争气，在4年的训练课程中，23名学生有3人退出，其余20人其余都有上乘表现，平均每年收益率在l00％左右，而他付给这些学生20%的分红就达3000-3500万美元，其中最成功的一名学生，4年下来替理查·丹尼斯赚了3150万美元。名声传出去后许多大基金会纷纷出高薪来挖人，如今大部分“龟儿们’要么被挖走，要么拉出去单干，手头都控制着上亿元美金，成为期货市场的一支生力军。“乌龟帮”的名声也越叫越响。结果证实理查·丹尼斯的观点是正确的：成功的交易者是可以通过训练与学习而得的，这无关乎聪明才智，全在于交易者的方法、原则。
Thursday, December 13, 2012
新一轮宽松措施后 美元究竟该何去何从?
美联储(FED)周三(12月12日)如期推出新的购债措施，美元也在该消息公布之后迅速下探，但随后便企稳反弹。QE4出炉之后，美元指数走势将如何演绎成为投资者关注的一个问题，一些分析师认为，宽松措施这一利空消息的释放，加之欧债危机及财政悬崖的担忧可能都会支撑美元，而QE3之后的美元指数表现可能也将给投资者提供一个参考。
美联储(FED)维持指标利率在0-0.25%不变，并宣布推出第四轮量化宽松政策(QE4)，即每个月采购450亿美元长期国债替代扭曲操作(OT)，以降低居高不下的失业率，加上QE3美联储每月资产采购额增至850亿美元。
此外，美联储首次将货币政策同具体目标挂钩，称将维持近零利率直至失业率触及6.5%的目标，届时将重新考虑政策立场。目前美国失业率在近四年低点7.7%。
美联储主席伯南克(BenBernanke)在记者会上表示，美联储在促进就业最大化的同时关注2%的通胀目标。只有达到该目标，美联储才会考虑以均衡的措施收紧货币政策，且任何撤走刺激措施都会是逐步进行的。
QE4公布后，美指应声下滑，从80.00附近下跌至日内低点，随后缓慢回升至79.90水平附近。周四亚市早盘，美指维持在该水准附近。
WorldwideMarkets首席市场策略师JosephTrevisani说道：“考虑到过去4年购买资产刺激经济增长效果甚微，美联储在政策框框中找不到出口，无法改善经济，却又唯恐刺激政策减少，经济就会崩溃。”
他补充道：“这对美元的影响将很小，因为这是目前政策的延续，市场已经消化。
澳洲联邦银行(CBA)策略师JosephCapurso表示：“美元/日元到目前为止小幅上涨，这种走势在继续。美元涨势很大程度上受美债收益率推动。尽管美联储采取如此行动但美元仍旧走升，表明市场仓位有所调整。”
DailyFX的外汇策略师ChristopherVecchio稍早表示，考虑到QE3宣布后的情景，以及FOMC的市场操作数据，预计美元将在刺探低位后触底，随后震荡走高，正如9月晚些时候直至10月份看到的行情。
他说，“诸多主要币种触及关键阻力位，基本面和技术面因素可能都会在本周剩余时段令风险偏好情绪降温。”
财政悬崖逼近
分析师指出，美联储决议公布之后，对于财政悬崖问题的关注将再度增加，目前看来，财政悬崖的谈判仍有没有明显进展，这将在未来一段时间内对美元构成支撑。
CommonwealthForeign Exchange首席市场分析师Omer Esiner表示：“美元进一步下跌的空间可能有限，特别是因市场对美国财政悬崖有如此多的不确定性。对欧债危机的不确定性、对意大利的担忧以及周末日本大选也会限制美元跌幅。”
美国国会助理周二表示，白宫和美国国会众议院议长博纳(JohnBoehner)就如何避免"财政悬崖"交换了新的方案。经济学家已经警告称，假如双方无法达成协议，那么脆弱的美国经济可能重回衰退。
尽管有了新的提案，但博纳再次呼吁总统拿出提供削减开支方案更多的细节，这些细节将被纳入最终协议当中。
在看过总统提供的方案细节后，博纳表示，“我们依旧在等待总统决定将具体哪些减支项目纳入到解决方案中。”白宫则反击表示，政府已经给出了大量的减支提案，但是共和党人却没有提供增加政府收入的方案的具体细节。
美联储主席伯南克周三也就财政悬崖问题发表了讲话。他表示，财政悬崖已经对经济产生影响，美联储的经济预期是以假设财政悬崖问题将得到解决为前提的。而且，美联储并没有抵消跌落财政悬崖后果的工具。
他希望国会在财政悬崖问题上做出正确的决定，并称国会和政府达成明智协议是迫切和重要的，相信国会将能够找到财政悬崖的解决办法。
炒外汇一天中的最佳时间
----24点后到清晨，为美国的下午盘，一般此时已经走出了较大的行情，这段时间多为对前面行情的技术调整。
其实在中国的外汇交易者拥有别的时区不能比拟的时间优势，就是能够抓住15点到24点的这个波动最大的时间段，其对于一般的投资者而言都是从事非外汇专业的工作，下午5点下班到24点这段时间是自由时间，正好可以用来做外汇投资，不必为工作的事情分心。
就我而言，我做保证金操盘很多年了，我的交易习惯就是，下午15-18点下单进场设好止损，止赢是看具体的技术徒刑，如背离和阻力位等等。也不用一直盯盘17:00, 17:30-18:00, 20:15-21:00 (冬零时为加一小时) 其后每20-30分钟看一次即可。
赶不上下午的投资者当然就要等到晚上再交易了，但最好还是等到20:30以后，这一半是第二次行情开始的时间，也就是等到欧洲中午休息完了，美洲开市为止。要是有重要数据公布则要十分小心，此时由于波动巨大会场出现骗线的情况，不要盲目准势，就可有效避免骗线。
----早5-14点行情一般及其清淡
这主要是由于亚洲市场的推动力量较小所为！一般震荡幅度在30点以内，没有明显的方向。多为调整和回调行情。一般与当天的方向走势相反，如：若当天走势上涨则这段时间多为小幅震荡的下跌。
这一时段的行情由于大多没有方向可言，保证金交易者可以在早上6-8点左右观察一下，若行情为上下波浪震荡形态 (看15分钟或是5分钟的图形)。可以在行情震荡到两端时作5-15点的操作，只放止赢不做短线止损即可。若到11点后还不能挣钱出来则要及时平仓止损。
这种做法称之为5点法，是不能盯盘作的，适合操作技巧不高的投资者，最终止损可放30-40点左右！实盘交易者则不适用！
----午间14-18点为欧洲上午市场，15点后一般有一次行情。
欧洲开始交易后资金就会增加， 外汇市场是一个金钱堆积的市场，所以那里的资金量大就会在那里陈盛大的波动。且此时段也会伴随着一些对欧洲货币有影响力的数据的公布！一般震荡幅度在40-80点左右。
这一段时间一般会在15:30后开始真正的行情，此次行情一半多会伴随着背离和突破等技术指标，所以是一段比较好抓的机会。
----傍晚18-20点 为欧洲的中午休息和美洲市场的清晨，较为清淡！这段时间是欧中的中午休时，也是等待美国开始的前夕。
----20点--24点为欧洲市场的下午盘和美洲市场的上午盘！这段时间是行情波动最大的时候，也是资金量和参与人数最多的时段。
一般为80点以上的行情。
这段时间则是会完全按照今天的方向去行动，所以判断这次行情就要跟剧大势了，它可以和欧洲是同方向的河可以和欧洲是反方向的，总之，应和大势一致。
可以说上帝为中国时区的人们创造了不可比拟的交易时间，让我们可以在尽量专心的情况下交易，大家可要好好把握呀。
其实在中国的外汇交易者拥有别的时区不能比拟的时间优势，就是能够抓住15点到24点的这个波动最大的时间段，其对于一般的投资者而言都是从事非外汇专业的工作，下午5点下班到24点这段时间是自由时间，正好可以用来做外汇投资，不必为工作的事情分心。
就我而言，我做保证金操盘很多年了，我的交易习惯就是，下午15-18点下单进场设好止损，止赢是看具体的技术徒刑，如背离和阻力位等等。也不用一直盯盘17:00, 17:30-18:00, 20:15-21:00 (冬零时为加一小时) 其后每20-30分钟看一次即可。
赶不上下午的投资者当然就要等到晚上再交易了，但最好还是等到20:30以后，这一半是第二次行情开始的时间，也就是等到欧洲中午休息完了，美洲开市为止。要是有重要数据公布则要十分小心，此时由于波动巨大会场出现骗线的情况，不要盲目准势，就可有效避免骗线。
----早5-14点行情一般及其清淡
这主要是由于亚洲市场的推动力量较小所为！一般震荡幅度在30点以内，没有明显的方向。多为调整和回调行情。一般与当天的方向走势相反，如：若当天走势上涨则这段时间多为小幅震荡的下跌。
这一时段的行情由于大多没有方向可言，保证金交易者可以在早上6-8点左右观察一下，若行情为上下波浪震荡形态 (看15分钟或是5分钟的图形)。可以在行情震荡到两端时作5-15点的操作，只放止赢不做短线止损即可。若到11点后还不能挣钱出来则要及时平仓止损。
这种做法称之为5点法，是不能盯盘作的，适合操作技巧不高的投资者，最终止损可放30-40点左右！实盘交易者则不适用！
----午间14-18点为欧洲上午市场，15点后一般有一次行情。
欧洲开始交易后资金就会增加， 外汇市场是一个金钱堆积的市场，所以那里的资金量大就会在那里陈盛大的波动。且此时段也会伴随着一些对欧洲货币有影响力的数据的公布！一般震荡幅度在40-80点左右。
这一段时间一般会在15:30后开始真正的行情，此次行情一半多会伴随着背离和突破等技术指标，所以是一段比较好抓的机会。
----傍晚18-20点 为欧洲的中午休息和美洲市场的清晨，较为清淡！这段时间是欧中的中午休时，也是等待美国开始的前夕。
----20点--24点为欧洲市场的下午盘和美洲市场的上午盘！这段时间是行情波动最大的时候，也是资金量和参与人数最多的时段。
一般为80点以上的行情。
这段时间则是会完全按照今天的方向去行动，所以判断这次行情就要跟剧大势了，它可以和欧洲是同方向的河可以和欧洲是反方向的，总之，应和大势一致。
可以说上帝为中国时区的人们创造了不可比拟的交易时间，让我们可以在尽量专心的情况下交易，大家可要好好把握呀。
炒外汇轻松获利的秘诀
炒外汇秘诀一：贪者无益。外汇市场与股市完全两回事，操作应当稳妥，操作切记短平快。汇市的盈利主要源于各国的经济波动，一般没有太大的经济风波，汇市不会产生巨大变动，稍微偏离轨迹，各种国家机构，世界组织便会大幅干预。因此，有1～2%的盈利，投资者还是快撤为宜。
炒外汇秘诀二：高卖低买。寻找贸易关系紧密，国内政治稳定的国家货币，高卖低买，赚钱无疑。贸易关系紧密的国家两国货币有保持稳定联动的默契。在B国货币下降到低于最常见价格时，大规模买入，不出半年，收入必丰。
炒外汇秘诀三：快慢有序。各种不同货币的买卖有不同的操作规则。敏感性的货币盈利空间大，但也容易快速下跌，风吹草动便会天色大变，因此操作应当会买快卖，不宜长留险地，最明显的货币是日元。而一些非敏感性货币，像欧元、美元、澳元这些货币，没有惊天动地大状况轻易不可能超出250点的波动，超出便有反弹，在家里买个应用软件把走势图画一画，买卖决策一目了然。
炒外汇秘诀四：每月例假。所谓例假者，大概是炒家大可每月休息一周，等待新月份的每月启示。按照规例，每逢新月份的周一到周五，各国尤其是欧洲或者美国便会公开许多重要的宏观数据与消息，如此一来汇市必有波动，啃透这些消息对于小炒家来说可谓神的启示也。此前，可切忌千万别贸然入市，否则赔了夫人也没辙。
炒外汇秘诀五：股市联动。一件衣服不能两个人穿，炒家们手中的的钱就那么一些，一把掷进了股市托盘，自然需要从汇市抽调资金，资金外套，汇市便难免回落之灾。因此我们只需熟悉各国汇民的外汇投资倾向，又可稳赚一笔。
炒外汇秘诀六：啃书者赢。国内股市不如赌局灵，但汇市却规规矩矩。大抵因为汇市关系到一国生计，各国利益吧。因此要辨清局势把握大局，操盘者必须多啃金融、经济、世界贸易与国际关系的有关书目，不惜摇身一变成为书虫，这样才能驰骋沙场无往而不胜。
炒外汇秘诀七：独唱我歌。炒汇为求钱能聚财，多赚一些，可别借债炒汇，否则逍遥之身可就容易被套了，独唱我歌绝对是小炒家的忠实戒言。
最后，以上炒诀通通只适用于安家乐业的各国货币，一旦遇到各种政治风暴、经济危机将统统失效。可谓之大茶饭不易小炒家入局也。有家有室的你便是可以退休了，只等风浪过后再重出江湖也为时不晚
炒外汇秘诀二：高卖低买。寻找贸易关系紧密，国内政治稳定的国家货币，高卖低买，赚钱无疑。贸易关系紧密的国家两国货币有保持稳定联动的默契。在B国货币下降到低于最常见价格时，大规模买入，不出半年，收入必丰。
炒外汇秘诀三：快慢有序。各种不同货币的买卖有不同的操作规则。敏感性的货币盈利空间大，但也容易快速下跌，风吹草动便会天色大变，因此操作应当会买快卖，不宜长留险地，最明显的货币是日元。而一些非敏感性货币，像欧元、美元、澳元这些货币，没有惊天动地大状况轻易不可能超出250点的波动，超出便有反弹，在家里买个应用软件把走势图画一画，买卖决策一目了然。
炒外汇秘诀四：每月例假。所谓例假者，大概是炒家大可每月休息一周，等待新月份的每月启示。按照规例，每逢新月份的周一到周五，各国尤其是欧洲或者美国便会公开许多重要的宏观数据与消息，如此一来汇市必有波动，啃透这些消息对于小炒家来说可谓神的启示也。此前，可切忌千万别贸然入市，否则赔了夫人也没辙。
炒外汇秘诀五：股市联动。一件衣服不能两个人穿，炒家们手中的的钱就那么一些，一把掷进了股市托盘，自然需要从汇市抽调资金，资金外套，汇市便难免回落之灾。因此我们只需熟悉各国汇民的外汇投资倾向，又可稳赚一笔。
炒外汇秘诀六：啃书者赢。国内股市不如赌局灵，但汇市却规规矩矩。大抵因为汇市关系到一国生计，各国利益吧。因此要辨清局势把握大局，操盘者必须多啃金融、经济、世界贸易与国际关系的有关书目，不惜摇身一变成为书虫，这样才能驰骋沙场无往而不胜。
炒外汇秘诀七：独唱我歌。炒汇为求钱能聚财，多赚一些，可别借债炒汇，否则逍遥之身可就容易被套了，独唱我歌绝对是小炒家的忠实戒言。
最后，以上炒诀通通只适用于安家乐业的各国货币，一旦遇到各种政治风暴、经济危机将统统失效。可谓之大茶饭不易小炒家入局也。有家有室的你便是可以退休了，只等风浪过后再重出江湖也为时不晚
炒外汇的秘诀在哪里？
炒外汇千万不要反向建仓，顺应中等趋势的方向交易，在上涨趋势中乘跌买入，在下降趋势中逢涨卖出，长期赢利后发生连续止损请停止交易，空仓离开市场一段时间，让自己的情绪冷静下來......
保护盈利；控制风险成为条件反射；钱赚不完但是亏得完的；当市场向一个方向前进的时候，炒外汇千万不要反向建仓；顺应中等趋势的方向交易，在上涨趋势中乘跌买入，在下降趋势中逢涨卖出；长期赢利后发生连续止损请停止交易，空仓离开市场一段时间，让自己的情绪冷静下來......
减少损失累积利润顺应趎势，力求简明与市场保持一致，复杂的并不一定是优越的。
最有效的，也往往是最简朴的，复杂的绝不是技术，只是人心！
1.保护盈利：永不让盈利变为损失，保护本金：绝不让小亏拖成大亏(绝不让损失在一笔交易上或一天之内超过10％)。先出场，然后再找机会杀回來。
2.控制风险成为条件反射第一时间止损，最初的损失往往是最小的损失，获利不仅來自于赚了多少還來自于少亏了多少『好的习惯是靠平时一点一滴积累出來的，平时赔点小钱但将來可以保命，市场什么都可能发生不止损只能是：千年打柴一日烧，逆向行情一出现，前面就白干了』
3.即使在低点被停损出场，也不必后悔，因如真是低位，還会有很多机会再度入场。钱赚不完但是亏得完的。
4.当外汇市场向一个方向前进的时候，千万不要反向建仓，直到有充分的证据显示市场“已经”转向了趎势已发生变化时(不是“将要”转向，更不是它“应该”转向了，注意，是“已经”转向了)不要站在载重货车的前面去阻挡他。
5.顺应中等趋势的方向交易，在上涨趋势中乘跌买入，在下降趋势中逢涨卖出『趋势仍会继续我只做一个方向!!!』
6.长期赢利后发生连续止损请停止交易，空仓离开市场一段时间，让自己的情绪冷静下來，让自己的头脑清醒下來。(顺势交易长时间盈利后出现连续止损，市场可能酝酿转势，最低也要有短线逆向波)
7.对行情没把握有疑问空仓等待『机会是等出來的，不是做出來的』
8.减少50％的交易会赚的更多(能称之为机会的决不会时时刻刻都存在，因此天天交易天天多笔交易肯定是错误的)
9.交易最活跃的品种，最活跃的图形最漂亮的成交量大于持仓的合约。
10.冲破阻力位后再加码买入，跌破主力派发区后再放空。
11.近远期合约共振出现突破买入龙头合约。
12.长期上涨后(涨幅已大时间接近敏感周期)高位短时间振荡，在3－5天内出现的第二次突破不能追不能留隔夜单，特别是各合约已不能同步只活跃合约突破(连续的上扬过程中可追，出现一段短时间调整第一次如合约同步可追，但突破后该涨不涨马上又收阴(阴有力大幅高开长上影)接着再突破(第二次)阳包阴不能追)
13.长期上涨后高位再次突破第二日却出现大幅低开，以此为界再不留隔夜单(不论多空)
14.低点上移高点上移，涨势良好；低点上移高点下移，涨势受阻；创不了新高创新低，跌；(高低点依次上移，趎势向上多；高低点一次下移，趎势向下空)
15.这次下跌的时间比上次长，意味着趎势发生变化(至少是暂时改变)； 下跌的幅度首次超过上次许多，表明转势已经开始『时间的变化比价格的反转更重要』
16.市场接近终点并运行第3－4段时，相比前一段：价格幅度会减小，运动时间会缩短(即将转势循环结束)
17.前期缓行，壹旦成交量增加大于持仓且突破250VMA，行情将出现加速。
18.市场刚运行了第一段，永远不要认为已見最后终点，他会运行3－4段(包括大小周期)
19.调整反弹的平均时间为3周，强烈趎势行情中在为期3周的停顿后买入。
20.大趎势未变，特别是刚运行第一段时，在从高位下跌50％位置买入，活跃品种可达60％(一般为小级别波动)日内隔日活跃可达80.9％
保护盈利；控制风险成为条件反射；钱赚不完但是亏得完的；当市场向一个方向前进的时候，炒外汇千万不要反向建仓；顺应中等趋势的方向交易，在上涨趋势中乘跌买入，在下降趋势中逢涨卖出；长期赢利后发生连续止损请停止交易，空仓离开市场一段时间，让自己的情绪冷静下來......
减少损失累积利润顺应趎势，力求简明与市场保持一致，复杂的并不一定是优越的。
最有效的，也往往是最简朴的，复杂的绝不是技术，只是人心！
1.保护盈利：永不让盈利变为损失，保护本金：绝不让小亏拖成大亏(绝不让损失在一笔交易上或一天之内超过10％)。先出场，然后再找机会杀回來。
2.控制风险成为条件反射第一时间止损，最初的损失往往是最小的损失，获利不仅來自于赚了多少還來自于少亏了多少『好的习惯是靠平时一点一滴积累出來的，平时赔点小钱但将來可以保命，市场什么都可能发生不止损只能是：千年打柴一日烧，逆向行情一出现，前面就白干了』
3.即使在低点被停损出场，也不必后悔，因如真是低位，還会有很多机会再度入场。钱赚不完但是亏得完的。
4.当外汇市场向一个方向前进的时候，千万不要反向建仓，直到有充分的证据显示市场“已经”转向了趎势已发生变化时(不是“将要”转向，更不是它“应该”转向了，注意，是“已经”转向了)不要站在载重货车的前面去阻挡他。
5.顺应中等趋势的方向交易，在上涨趋势中乘跌买入，在下降趋势中逢涨卖出『趋势仍会继续我只做一个方向!!!』
6.长期赢利后发生连续止损请停止交易，空仓离开市场一段时间，让自己的情绪冷静下來，让自己的头脑清醒下來。(顺势交易长时间盈利后出现连续止损，市场可能酝酿转势，最低也要有短线逆向波)
7.对行情没把握有疑问空仓等待『机会是等出來的，不是做出來的』
8.减少50％的交易会赚的更多(能称之为机会的决不会时时刻刻都存在，因此天天交易天天多笔交易肯定是错误的)
9.交易最活跃的品种，最活跃的图形最漂亮的成交量大于持仓的合约。
10.冲破阻力位后再加码买入，跌破主力派发区后再放空。
11.近远期合约共振出现突破买入龙头合约。
12.长期上涨后(涨幅已大时间接近敏感周期)高位短时间振荡，在3－5天内出现的第二次突破不能追不能留隔夜单，特别是各合约已不能同步只活跃合约突破(连续的上扬过程中可追，出现一段短时间调整第一次如合约同步可追，但突破后该涨不涨马上又收阴(阴有力大幅高开长上影)接着再突破(第二次)阳包阴不能追)
13.长期上涨后高位再次突破第二日却出现大幅低开，以此为界再不留隔夜单(不论多空)
14.低点上移高点上移，涨势良好；低点上移高点下移，涨势受阻；创不了新高创新低，跌；(高低点依次上移，趎势向上多；高低点一次下移，趎势向下空)
15.这次下跌的时间比上次长，意味着趎势发生变化(至少是暂时改变)； 下跌的幅度首次超过上次许多，表明转势已经开始『时间的变化比价格的反转更重要』
16.市场接近终点并运行第3－4段时，相比前一段：价格幅度会减小，运动时间会缩短(即将转势循环结束)
17.前期缓行，壹旦成交量增加大于持仓且突破250VMA，行情将出现加速。
18.市场刚运行了第一段，永远不要认为已見最后终点，他会运行3－4段(包括大小周期)
19.调整反弹的平均时间为3周，强烈趎势行情中在为期3周的停顿后买入。
20.大趎势未变，特别是刚运行第一段时，在从高位下跌50％位置买入，活跃品种可达60％(一般为小级别波动)日内隔日活跃可达80.9％
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Trading Success Can Only Come from Loving to Lose Small and Win Big
How many people do you think would attend a trading seminar that advertised teaching to lose small? Or, how popular would a workshop be that was dedicated to extolling the virtues of preventing big losses in the financial markets? My guess is that unless there were a lot of incentives (perhaps a free trip to Vegas or a flat screen TV), not many people would show up to these events. The reason - no one likes to hear about losing.
Losing conjures up feelings of failure and pain, and since most human beings would rather avoid those two experiences, it's no surprise that anything dealing with these emotions would have very little appeal to the masses.
Now, on the other hand, if there were a promotion on how to trade with zero risk, great profit potential, and hardly any work, there wouldn't be a venue large enough to hold all the attendees. In reality, most of us know that no such thing exists (as much as we'd wish it did). This brings us to the reality of trading.
In class, I like to draw upon many analogies; one of my favorites when discussing the psychology of trading is to liken a trader to a boxer: A trader who hates, or fears, losing is akin to a boxer who feels similarly about taking punches. This, let's refer to him as the timid boxer, is the pugilist who always has his elbows close to his body, and his hands covering his face. Always on the defensive, this fellow rarely throws a jab as he is always on his heels. He's the one that's always clinching, hoping to stem the onslaught of punches being hurled at him. There's a commonly used quote in boxing: The clinch can keep you from losing, but it can't make you a winner.
The parallels in these two areas of endeavor are striking. For example, a trader must accept small losses, just as a boxer must know how to take a punch. However, neither one must let their guard down because just one blow to the chin (one big loss) could mean "game over." Likewise, the skilled boxer dodges and weaves, taking a few innocuous punches, until he sees an opening to strike his opponent where the most damage can be inflicted. A trader, in the same fashion, will incur those modest losses until he nails the trade that reaches his target.
The usual victor in a fighting match, or in any competition for that matter, is the one who can sense their opponent's weakness, and then exploit it. In boxing, it's referred to as the "killer instinct" or "going for the jugular." This occurs when you see a boxer backed into a corner, and the aggressor does not let up on his assault, until either the referee stops the fight with a technical knockout, or the timid boxer ends up supine on the canvas. This can also be seen in other professional sports like a football game in which one team has a fourth-and–goal, the winning team usually goes for the touchdown in that scenario. Meanwhile, the team playing "conservatively" settles for a field goal. I find that aggravating to see.
In the day trading arena, this goes on every day - the difference is that in trading, most of the beatings are self-imposed.
Put another way: Winners play to "win," as opposed to "not to lose." When a trader begins to love to take small losses, then, and only then, can he/she begin to play to win. Those of you that have been reading Lessons from the Pros for a while probably have read comparable themes from me or other writers at Online Trading Academy. Nonetheless, some subjects bear repeating, and this is one of them.
I believe the only way to begin embracing the losing aspect of trading is to gain the skill that will enable you to compete. I always tell my students, "The successful traders that I'm acquainted with are some of the smartest people I know and that's who you will be competing with." I also tell them that in my many years of trading I've only known two types of traders - traders that have lost money, and traders that are going to lose money. The difference between the survivors and the ones that have gone by the wayside is in how they've reacted to their losses and the size of those losses.
All told, fortify your mind to withstand the inevitable losses that will come from trading, just as the boxer will have to strengthen his abdominal muscles to better-defend against the inevitable body blows. If you find yourself being one of those who trade "not to lose," then I challenge you to change your way of thinking. Perhaps a more constructive way to view trading is to believe that small losses are simply the price to be paid for being a consistent winner in the markets. So ask yourself, do you really want to be a winner?
Losing conjures up feelings of failure and pain, and since most human beings would rather avoid those two experiences, it's no surprise that anything dealing with these emotions would have very little appeal to the masses.
Now, on the other hand, if there were a promotion on how to trade with zero risk, great profit potential, and hardly any work, there wouldn't be a venue large enough to hold all the attendees. In reality, most of us know that no such thing exists (as much as we'd wish it did). This brings us to the reality of trading.
In class, I like to draw upon many analogies; one of my favorites when discussing the psychology of trading is to liken a trader to a boxer: A trader who hates, or fears, losing is akin to a boxer who feels similarly about taking punches. This, let's refer to him as the timid boxer, is the pugilist who always has his elbows close to his body, and his hands covering his face. Always on the defensive, this fellow rarely throws a jab as he is always on his heels. He's the one that's always clinching, hoping to stem the onslaught of punches being hurled at him. There's a commonly used quote in boxing: The clinch can keep you from losing, but it can't make you a winner.
The parallels in these two areas of endeavor are striking. For example, a trader must accept small losses, just as a boxer must know how to take a punch. However, neither one must let their guard down because just one blow to the chin (one big loss) could mean "game over." Likewise, the skilled boxer dodges and weaves, taking a few innocuous punches, until he sees an opening to strike his opponent where the most damage can be inflicted. A trader, in the same fashion, will incur those modest losses until he nails the trade that reaches his target.
The usual victor in a fighting match, or in any competition for that matter, is the one who can sense their opponent's weakness, and then exploit it. In boxing, it's referred to as the "killer instinct" or "going for the jugular." This occurs when you see a boxer backed into a corner, and the aggressor does not let up on his assault, until either the referee stops the fight with a technical knockout, or the timid boxer ends up supine on the canvas. This can also be seen in other professional sports like a football game in which one team has a fourth-and–goal, the winning team usually goes for the touchdown in that scenario. Meanwhile, the team playing "conservatively" settles for a field goal. I find that aggravating to see.
In the day trading arena, this goes on every day - the difference is that in trading, most of the beatings are self-imposed.
Put another way: Winners play to "win," as opposed to "not to lose." When a trader begins to love to take small losses, then, and only then, can he/she begin to play to win. Those of you that have been reading Lessons from the Pros for a while probably have read comparable themes from me or other writers at Online Trading Academy. Nonetheless, some subjects bear repeating, and this is one of them.
I believe the only way to begin embracing the losing aspect of trading is to gain the skill that will enable you to compete. I always tell my students, "The successful traders that I'm acquainted with are some of the smartest people I know and that's who you will be competing with." I also tell them that in my many years of trading I've only known two types of traders - traders that have lost money, and traders that are going to lose money. The difference between the survivors and the ones that have gone by the wayside is in how they've reacted to their losses and the size of those losses.
All told, fortify your mind to withstand the inevitable losses that will come from trading, just as the boxer will have to strengthen his abdominal muscles to better-defend against the inevitable body blows. If you find yourself being one of those who trade "not to lose," then I challenge you to change your way of thinking. Perhaps a more constructive way to view trading is to believe that small losses are simply the price to be paid for being a consistent winner in the markets. So ask yourself, do you really want to be a winner?
Losing To Win
The hardest, but also most important lesson to learn in trading is how to handle losses gracefully. Most traders will inevitably encounter a string of losses at some point, so those who can't lose without being thrown off their game won't survive the market. The traders who have realistic win/loss expectations and a trading system they trust have the best chance of prevailing over tough market conditions. Here we look at what kind of losses traders can expect and how they can adjust their focus and strategy to deal with these losses.
Losing Battles …
Every trader worth his or her salt knows that trading against the trend is not a good idea. So it seems logical that the best trading systems would be those that follow the trend: when the trend is going up, take long trades only, and when it's going down, it's time to go short. That being said, you'd think that trend-following systems would have the best win/loss ratios, right?
In his book, "A Short Course in Technical Trading", Perry Kaufman offers some sobering statistics on the matter. According to this veteran program-trading expert and author, "You can expect 6 or 7 out of 10 trend trades to be losses, some small some a little larger." And yet, Kaufman says that trend-following systems are some of the best trading systems around. In other words, trend-following systems won't yield huge profits, but they'll still do better than most systems.
It will probably come as a shock to those who have spent countless hours searching for a winning system, but Kaufman makes it absolutely clear in his book that having realistic win/loss expectations means expecting losses - lots of them. He states, "As a trend trader, you should expect mostly small losses, some small profits, and a few large profits."
If it gets across this point alone,"A Short Course" is a worthwhile addition to your library. Kaufman provides an example to demonstrate a phenomenon traders in the game for the long haul have come to learn the hard way:
"In a normal distribution of 1,000 coin tosses, half of them would be single runs of heads or tails. Half of those, 25%, would be a sequence of either two heads or two tails. Half of the remaining, 12.5%, would be sequences of three in a row, and so on. Therefore, in 1,000 coin tosses, you can expect only one run of 10 heads or tails in a row."
In other words, in 1,000 trading days - or about four years - a trader could expect to experience 10 wins (or losses) in a row only once, that is, if trading were as random (normally distributed) as a series of coin tosses, which it is not.
So, your odds of winning with trend-following systems are better than your odds of winning a series of random coin tosses, but there are other challenges to having more winning than losing trades. Although markets are not random, you can still expect short-term random movements within a trend, major reversals at the end of each trend, and the time lag most trend-following systems experience when getting into and out of the market.
As a result, thanks to lags and unexpected short-term random movements, you are still subject to the effects of randomness. Given enough time, an experienced trader can expect to suffer 10 or more losses in a row. It is not a matter of if, but when.
When asked about realistic trading expectations, Thomas Stridsman, author of "Trading Systems That Work" and "Trading Systems and Money Management", had this to say:
"What is more important than how large your winning trade is when you win, or how many winners or losers you might have in a row. It is the mathematical expectancy of your strategy. That is, how much are you likely to win on average on all trades, winners and losers combined, and how much this value is likely to fluctuate in the short term.
"For an even further increase of peace of mind, you also probably are better off looking at profitable time periods, such as weeks or months, rather than profitable trades. Simply looking at a win/loss ratio is not enough."
If you think that doing either more or fewer trades would be a more successful strategy, think again. Kaufman demonstrates in "Short Course" that the more trades the trader performs, the lower his or her profits over the long haul. On average, longer-term trades generate more eventual profits. However, if you're a long-term trader, your risk of getting one or more big losses is increased, since you are in the markets longer and therefore exposed to risk for more prolonged periods. Bottom line, no matter what your trading style or preferred time in a trade, you will lose and lose big on more than one occasion.
Kaufman has the data to back up his claims. He has performed thousands of tests on various systems, and some of these are presented in Short Course. In one example, he tested Microsoft for 10 years ending Jan 2001 and covering a period when the stock moved from a pre-split price of $1.04 to a high of $60 in Dec 1999. It should be pretty easy to beat the odds following that kind of trend, right?
Using an 80-day moving average during the period to generate buys and sells the system, trading both long and short positions, generated a total of 88 trades. Of these, only 36 trades - or 41% - were profitable. And Kaufman comments in the book that "[t]hat's actually good for a trend system, which often has closer to 35% good trades".
These depressing stats are echoed by John Murphy in his book, "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets". Murphy says that professional traders, on average, experience losing trades about 60% of the time. In other words, they win only about 40% of the trades they enter. Given the grim facts, rookie traders may wonder how it's possible to make money in the markets. All of this begs the question: how can a system that has more losing than winning trades be profitable?
…While Winning the War
Let's look at an example of a system that does very well in a relatively short period, but falters over time. I ran a number of tests to determine if using commercial commodity traders' net positions - published each week by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports - was useful in trading an index. Tests were performed for the period of 1999 through 2003 using the S&P 500 Index futures and results were impressive.
Using a five- and 22-week simple moving average of commercial traders' positions, buying each time the five-period SMA crossed above the 22-period SMA and selling when it crossed below, the strategy earned 804 points. Contrast this to a loss of 245 points for a buy-and-hold strategy during the four-and-a-half-year period between Feb 12, 1999, and Oct 3, 2003. If we assume the trader traded one S&P 500 e-mini contract with a margin (risk) of $1,800, the profit would have been more than $40,000 after commissions. Out of a total of 12 trades, seven were profitable - that's a win/loss ratio of 58%.
The same tests were performed for the 13-year period from Feb 16, 1990, through Oct 31, 2003. Results were far less impressive. The system returned a total of 555 points, whereas a buy and hold over the same period returned 696 points. Our win/loss ratio also dropped: only 26 out of 55 trades were profitable, giving a ratio of 47%. Not only was the system not nearly as impressive over the longer period, but it was also significantly outperformed by a simple buy-and-hold strategy.
The moral of the story? Whenever you see claims that systems generate outstanding returns over short periods, remember that such statistics are worthless without looking at the bigger picture. Even worse, these claims often create unrealistic expectations in the mind of the new trader who takes them at face value.
Stridsman explains how to compare a trading system to a buy-and-hold strategy:
"The trick here is to analyze the system for its effective time spent in the market. For example, if a system is in the market only 50 percent of the time, you can put on twice as many contracts each time the system enters into a trade, as compared to what you would have in a buy-and-hold situation over the entire period to achieve the same amount of contract hours spent in the market. Looked at this way, in the 50 percent case the profits made per contract traded should be at least half that of the constant-contract, buy-and-hold strategy. Proper money management also allows you to increase the number of contracts traded as your equity grows, whereas a buy-and-hold strategy doesn't give you the same flexibility."
When you approach trading with the assumption that there will be more losing than winning trades, your primary focus shifts dramatically. Instead of spending inordinate amounts of time buying, testing and discarding systems that fail to meet your unrealistic expectations of 70 to 80% (or more) wins to losses, you can concentrate your efforts in the more important but far less sexy area of money management.
On average, traders spend at least 10 times more time and effort on seeking the magic formula for trading than on learning to manage the trade. This is obvious if you compare the number of trading signal systems available to the number of money management systems available. The same is true for best-selling trading books. When was the last time you saw a best-seller that concentrated on money management? This may explain why so few traders actually graduate to the point of being consistent in the trading game.
Conclusion
Since a large number of professional traders experience more losing than winning trades, learning how to lose is essential to making it as a trader. Furthermore, an effective money management program is absolutely necessary to a trader's survival and long-term profitability. A key part of any money management program is having an effective trading plan and sticking to it. (For more on constructing a trading plan, see the article Ten Steps to Building a Winning Trading Plan.)
Consider what veteran trader and market teacher Larry Williams said in a 2004 e-mail: "Since losses are an integral part of this game, a strategy is as essential as the proper attitude. All jobs have good days and bad days so deal with it. There are no 100% certain trades."
Looking for a system that will win 80% of the time or more is a fool's game. Those who adopt a hope-for-the-best-but-plan-for-the-worst mentality and concentrate their efforts on far more important issues will set themselves up for long-term success. It is the difference between taking a short-term view to win a few battles at any cost and marshaling resources in the battles you lose to ultimately win the war.
If you're serious about getting a handle on this topic, check out the books by Kaufman discussed in this article. You will also find Thomas Stridsman's book, "Trading Systems and Money Management", a worthwhile read for its detailed discussion of win/loss ratios, realistic expectations for various trading systems, and money management strategies. Consider it a reading assignment with potentially big dividends!
Losing Battles …
Every trader worth his or her salt knows that trading against the trend is not a good idea. So it seems logical that the best trading systems would be those that follow the trend: when the trend is going up, take long trades only, and when it's going down, it's time to go short. That being said, you'd think that trend-following systems would have the best win/loss ratios, right?
In his book, "A Short Course in Technical Trading", Perry Kaufman offers some sobering statistics on the matter. According to this veteran program-trading expert and author, "You can expect 6 or 7 out of 10 trend trades to be losses, some small some a little larger." And yet, Kaufman says that trend-following systems are some of the best trading systems around. In other words, trend-following systems won't yield huge profits, but they'll still do better than most systems.
It will probably come as a shock to those who have spent countless hours searching for a winning system, but Kaufman makes it absolutely clear in his book that having realistic win/loss expectations means expecting losses - lots of them. He states, "As a trend trader, you should expect mostly small losses, some small profits, and a few large profits."
If it gets across this point alone,"A Short Course" is a worthwhile addition to your library. Kaufman provides an example to demonstrate a phenomenon traders in the game for the long haul have come to learn the hard way:
"In a normal distribution of 1,000 coin tosses, half of them would be single runs of heads or tails. Half of those, 25%, would be a sequence of either two heads or two tails. Half of the remaining, 12.5%, would be sequences of three in a row, and so on. Therefore, in 1,000 coin tosses, you can expect only one run of 10 heads or tails in a row."
In other words, in 1,000 trading days - or about four years - a trader could expect to experience 10 wins (or losses) in a row only once, that is, if trading were as random (normally distributed) as a series of coin tosses, which it is not.
So, your odds of winning with trend-following systems are better than your odds of winning a series of random coin tosses, but there are other challenges to having more winning than losing trades. Although markets are not random, you can still expect short-term random movements within a trend, major reversals at the end of each trend, and the time lag most trend-following systems experience when getting into and out of the market.
As a result, thanks to lags and unexpected short-term random movements, you are still subject to the effects of randomness. Given enough time, an experienced trader can expect to suffer 10 or more losses in a row. It is not a matter of if, but when.
When asked about realistic trading expectations, Thomas Stridsman, author of "Trading Systems That Work" and "Trading Systems and Money Management", had this to say:
"What is more important than how large your winning trade is when you win, or how many winners or losers you might have in a row. It is the mathematical expectancy of your strategy. That is, how much are you likely to win on average on all trades, winners and losers combined, and how much this value is likely to fluctuate in the short term.
"For an even further increase of peace of mind, you also probably are better off looking at profitable time periods, such as weeks or months, rather than profitable trades. Simply looking at a win/loss ratio is not enough."
If you think that doing either more or fewer trades would be a more successful strategy, think again. Kaufman demonstrates in "Short Course" that the more trades the trader performs, the lower his or her profits over the long haul. On average, longer-term trades generate more eventual profits. However, if you're a long-term trader, your risk of getting one or more big losses is increased, since you are in the markets longer and therefore exposed to risk for more prolonged periods. Bottom line, no matter what your trading style or preferred time in a trade, you will lose and lose big on more than one occasion.
Kaufman has the data to back up his claims. He has performed thousands of tests on various systems, and some of these are presented in Short Course. In one example, he tested Microsoft for 10 years ending Jan 2001 and covering a period when the stock moved from a pre-split price of $1.04 to a high of $60 in Dec 1999. It should be pretty easy to beat the odds following that kind of trend, right?
Using an 80-day moving average during the period to generate buys and sells the system, trading both long and short positions, generated a total of 88 trades. Of these, only 36 trades - or 41% - were profitable. And Kaufman comments in the book that "[t]hat's actually good for a trend system, which often has closer to 35% good trades".
These depressing stats are echoed by John Murphy in his book, "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets". Murphy says that professional traders, on average, experience losing trades about 60% of the time. In other words, they win only about 40% of the trades they enter. Given the grim facts, rookie traders may wonder how it's possible to make money in the markets. All of this begs the question: how can a system that has more losing than winning trades be profitable?
…While Winning the War
Let's look at an example of a system that does very well in a relatively short period, but falters over time. I ran a number of tests to determine if using commercial commodity traders' net positions - published each week by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports - was useful in trading an index. Tests were performed for the period of 1999 through 2003 using the S&P 500 Index futures and results were impressive.
Using a five- and 22-week simple moving average of commercial traders' positions, buying each time the five-period SMA crossed above the 22-period SMA and selling when it crossed below, the strategy earned 804 points. Contrast this to a loss of 245 points for a buy-and-hold strategy during the four-and-a-half-year period between Feb 12, 1999, and Oct 3, 2003. If we assume the trader traded one S&P 500 e-mini contract with a margin (risk) of $1,800, the profit would have been more than $40,000 after commissions. Out of a total of 12 trades, seven were profitable - that's a win/loss ratio of 58%.
The same tests were performed for the 13-year period from Feb 16, 1990, through Oct 31, 2003. Results were far less impressive. The system returned a total of 555 points, whereas a buy and hold over the same period returned 696 points. Our win/loss ratio also dropped: only 26 out of 55 trades were profitable, giving a ratio of 47%. Not only was the system not nearly as impressive over the longer period, but it was also significantly outperformed by a simple buy-and-hold strategy.
The moral of the story? Whenever you see claims that systems generate outstanding returns over short periods, remember that such statistics are worthless without looking at the bigger picture. Even worse, these claims often create unrealistic expectations in the mind of the new trader who takes them at face value.
Stridsman explains how to compare a trading system to a buy-and-hold strategy:
"The trick here is to analyze the system for its effective time spent in the market. For example, if a system is in the market only 50 percent of the time, you can put on twice as many contracts each time the system enters into a trade, as compared to what you would have in a buy-and-hold situation over the entire period to achieve the same amount of contract hours spent in the market. Looked at this way, in the 50 percent case the profits made per contract traded should be at least half that of the constant-contract, buy-and-hold strategy. Proper money management also allows you to increase the number of contracts traded as your equity grows, whereas a buy-and-hold strategy doesn't give you the same flexibility."
When you approach trading with the assumption that there will be more losing than winning trades, your primary focus shifts dramatically. Instead of spending inordinate amounts of time buying, testing and discarding systems that fail to meet your unrealistic expectations of 70 to 80% (or more) wins to losses, you can concentrate your efforts in the more important but far less sexy area of money management.
On average, traders spend at least 10 times more time and effort on seeking the magic formula for trading than on learning to manage the trade. This is obvious if you compare the number of trading signal systems available to the number of money management systems available. The same is true for best-selling trading books. When was the last time you saw a best-seller that concentrated on money management? This may explain why so few traders actually graduate to the point of being consistent in the trading game.
Conclusion
Since a large number of professional traders experience more losing than winning trades, learning how to lose is essential to making it as a trader. Furthermore, an effective money management program is absolutely necessary to a trader's survival and long-term profitability. A key part of any money management program is having an effective trading plan and sticking to it. (For more on constructing a trading plan, see the article Ten Steps to Building a Winning Trading Plan.)
Consider what veteran trader and market teacher Larry Williams said in a 2004 e-mail: "Since losses are an integral part of this game, a strategy is as essential as the proper attitude. All jobs have good days and bad days so deal with it. There are no 100% certain trades."
Looking for a system that will win 80% of the time or more is a fool's game. Those who adopt a hope-for-the-best-but-plan-for-the-worst mentality and concentrate their efforts on far more important issues will set themselves up for long-term success. It is the difference between taking a short-term view to win a few battles at any cost and marshaling resources in the battles you lose to ultimately win the war.
If you're serious about getting a handle on this topic, check out the books by Kaufman discussed in this article. You will also find Thomas Stridsman's book, "Trading Systems and Money Management", a worthwhile read for its detailed discussion of win/loss ratios, realistic expectations for various trading systems, and money management strategies. Consider it a reading assignment with potentially big dividends!
Sunday, December 11, 2011
怎样才算慢活？
城市人匆忙上班，吃饭狼吞虎咽，如厕草草了事，就连休息都得争分夺秒。如此节奏混乱的生活是养生大忌，英国《每日邮报》载文指出，平日生活节奏会直接影响健康，应学会快慢、张弛、紧疏有度。中国《生命时报》采访数位医学专家，总结出呼吸、喝水、吃饭和走路等行为的最佳速度，从今天起，不妨尝试着改变自己的生物钟。
呼吸
静下心来，对着手表，测一下自己的呼吸（一呼一吸为一个周期），看看一分钟有多少次，一个周期多少秒？
一项研究显示，大多数人用3.3秒呼吸一次。你知道吗？古人一次呼吸是6.4秒。
伦敦理疗师菲奥娜·特鲁普说，健康成年人每分钟呼吸10至14次，如果每分钟呼吸次数超过20次，氧气不能被释放到肌肉及器官，就会出现指尖和嘴唇刺痛、心悸、疲劳、注意力无法集中、肌肉痉挛及肠易激综合征等问题。
只要这些症状出现，表明你平时是通过口腔，而不是用鼻子来完成呼吸。一般来说，压力大、颈痛、背痛、受到情感打击或手术等，都会增加呼吸急促几率。伦敦大学医院呼吸医学教授史蒂芬·斯皮罗博士说，虽然呼吸太快不会导致长期健康问题，但容易引发肺病，或者哮喘和支气管炎。
最佳节奏：一呼一吸用6.4秒。
研究发现，书法家、太极拳师以及性情温和的人，呼吸节奏是缓慢而深沉的，他们的平均寿命普遍较长。一般来说，山区的长寿者多于平原，主要原因是，高山的低氧空气能降低血氧浓度，减缓新陈代谢的速度。
中国中医科学院教授杨力建议，想长寿不妨学学古人深长而缓慢的呼吸形式。正确的呼吸方法要做到四个字：深、长、匀、细，这期间注意用鼻而不要用嘴呼吸。
初练阶段，晚间睡觉时平躺，全身放松。呼气时略屏气，呼气时间是吸气的3至4倍。呼完之后不要马上吸气，应紧接着稍稍屏气，然后再吸气。就这样“吸—呼—屏”循环，直至不知不觉地入睡。接下来，不只睡前，白天、夜里、工作、走路、坐车……潜意识里都得要求自己按上述方法做。
喝水
喝水是件再简单不过的事，但一杯水“咕嘟咕嘟”下肚的同时，心脏也承受着不小的负担。
因为喝水太快，水分会快速进入血液，使血液变稀、血量增加，尤其对老人或心脏不好的人来说，会出现胸闷、气短等症状，严重的可能导致心肌梗死。
北京医院心内科主任医师沈瑾提醒，喝水时应特别注意喝的频率和量。特别是洗完热水澡后，身体受热，血管扩张，血流量增加，心脏跳动也会比平时快些，不应大量喝水或喝得太快。
运动过后，也不宜一次性大量饮水。因为这时胃肠血管处于收缩状态，需要一个恢复过程，立即大量饮水会导致肚子发胀，影响消化。
不仅是喝水，喝酒也不能太快，否则身体无法及时处理，容易导致饮酒过量。伦敦大学初级护理教授保罗·华莱士说，肝脏每小时只能处理大约1杯酒的酒精量，一次醉酒就足以导致肝脏损伤，一旦酒精中毒，还会影响大脑功能。
最佳节奏：跟着心跳喝。
合理的喝水方式是，每次100至150毫升，间隔为20至30分钟。喝下一口水的时间，最好与心脏跳动一下的时间接近，这样才能使心脏有规律、平稳地吸收进入体内的水分。
运动后最好过几分钟，等心脏跳动稍微平稳后，再着小口小口地喝些温开水。
上班族每工作半个小时就要休息一会儿，并喝100毫升左右的水；室外工作者最好随身携带水杯，稍觉口渴就喝；老人则应在家定个喝水时间表，不妨上个闹钟，至少每小时提醒一次，每次喝几口水。
吃饭
狼吞虎咽地吃完一餐饭后，是否意识到：癌细胞正躲过唾液这第一道健康卫士，趁虚而入。
据统计，40%的癌症与食物中的亚硝酸类化合物、化学合成剂、防腐剂等致癌物质有关。唾液在阻击这些坏物质的过程中，起了不可忽视的作用，咀嚼可促进唾液分泌。
一项统计显示，现代人吃饭太快，已从40多年前每餐咀嚼900至1100次、用时20至30分钟，下降为目前的每餐咀嚼500至600次、用时5至10分钟。
此外，日本大阪大学研究发现，吃饭速度快会导致肥胖几率翻倍。美国南卡罗莱纳医科大学研究人员指出，如果咀嚼不细，粗糙的食物会增加胃的负担，增加胃食管反流病的危险。
最佳节奏：一口饭嚼20次。
中国疾病预防控制中心营养与食品安全所副所长马冠生建议，吃饭一定要细嚼慢咽，最好用15至20分钟吃早餐，半小时左右吃中晚餐；老年人则应咀嚼25至50次，才能给饮食中枢足够的兴奋时间，帮助食物消化。
试验显示，两个人同吃一种食物，一人细嚼，另一人粗嚼，结果细嚼的人比粗嚼的人多吸收蛋白质13%、脂肪12%、纤维素43%。
细嚼慢咽可增加唾液的分泌量，让它与食物充分混合，增进营养的消化吸收。
此外，吃饭慢还能解毒。高温油炸、烧烤食物中产生的致癌物苯并芘等，能在人体唾液酶的作用下被部分分解。
苹果等水果若吃超过15分钟，其中的有机酸和果酸就有足够时间杀死口腔细菌，有效清洁口腔。
走路
生活中不是所有事情都要按下“慢进键”，有些动作快点反而更好。美国匹兹堡大学研究人员对3万4000名65岁以上老人的研究发现，结合个人病史、吸烟和血压等情况，走路速度大体可以预测老年人的剩余寿命。
一般来说，步伐80厘米／秒的老人能达到70至75岁，步伐超过1米／秒的老人寿命可超过75岁。
北京体育大学运动人体科学学院教授陆一帆认为，走路速度和身体机能是相辅相成的。一般来说，走得快的人，心脏、肌肉、骨骼等各方面机能都比常人强，平衡能力、协调能力也比较好，对疾病的抵抗能力和对意外事故的防范能力自然更佳；反过来说，长期有规律地快走，也能提高人体各方面生理机能，如减缓老年人的血管老化，让他们显得更年轻。
最佳节奏：每分钟120步。
寿命是“走”出来的。随着年龄的增长，人的走路频率会逐步下降，步幅也会变小。年轻人一般7至10分钟走1公里，步幅在0.75米左右，四五十岁以上的人走1公里就需要10分钟以上了。
陆一帆提醒，老年人尽管步履蹒跚，但在保证安全的基础上，还是应该尽量把步子放快一点。日本东京保健体育教授波多野则建议，快速步行时间一般要持续半小时左右，速度以每分钟120步左右为宜。步行时，身体要略微向前倾斜，双臂自然下垂，协调地前后摆动于身体两侧。全身着力于脚掌前部，步态要均匀、沉稳而有节奏，走到微微出汗即可。
呼吸
静下心来，对着手表，测一下自己的呼吸（一呼一吸为一个周期），看看一分钟有多少次，一个周期多少秒？
一项研究显示，大多数人用3.3秒呼吸一次。你知道吗？古人一次呼吸是6.4秒。
伦敦理疗师菲奥娜·特鲁普说，健康成年人每分钟呼吸10至14次，如果每分钟呼吸次数超过20次，氧气不能被释放到肌肉及器官，就会出现指尖和嘴唇刺痛、心悸、疲劳、注意力无法集中、肌肉痉挛及肠易激综合征等问题。
只要这些症状出现，表明你平时是通过口腔，而不是用鼻子来完成呼吸。一般来说，压力大、颈痛、背痛、受到情感打击或手术等，都会增加呼吸急促几率。伦敦大学医院呼吸医学教授史蒂芬·斯皮罗博士说，虽然呼吸太快不会导致长期健康问题，但容易引发肺病，或者哮喘和支气管炎。
最佳节奏：一呼一吸用6.4秒。
研究发现，书法家、太极拳师以及性情温和的人，呼吸节奏是缓慢而深沉的，他们的平均寿命普遍较长。一般来说，山区的长寿者多于平原，主要原因是，高山的低氧空气能降低血氧浓度，减缓新陈代谢的速度。
中国中医科学院教授杨力建议，想长寿不妨学学古人深长而缓慢的呼吸形式。正确的呼吸方法要做到四个字：深、长、匀、细，这期间注意用鼻而不要用嘴呼吸。
初练阶段，晚间睡觉时平躺，全身放松。呼气时略屏气，呼气时间是吸气的3至4倍。呼完之后不要马上吸气，应紧接着稍稍屏气，然后再吸气。就这样“吸—呼—屏”循环，直至不知不觉地入睡。接下来，不只睡前，白天、夜里、工作、走路、坐车……潜意识里都得要求自己按上述方法做。
喝水
喝水是件再简单不过的事，但一杯水“咕嘟咕嘟”下肚的同时，心脏也承受着不小的负担。
因为喝水太快，水分会快速进入血液，使血液变稀、血量增加，尤其对老人或心脏不好的人来说，会出现胸闷、气短等症状，严重的可能导致心肌梗死。
北京医院心内科主任医师沈瑾提醒，喝水时应特别注意喝的频率和量。特别是洗完热水澡后，身体受热，血管扩张，血流量增加，心脏跳动也会比平时快些，不应大量喝水或喝得太快。
运动过后，也不宜一次性大量饮水。因为这时胃肠血管处于收缩状态，需要一个恢复过程，立即大量饮水会导致肚子发胀，影响消化。
不仅是喝水，喝酒也不能太快，否则身体无法及时处理，容易导致饮酒过量。伦敦大学初级护理教授保罗·华莱士说，肝脏每小时只能处理大约1杯酒的酒精量，一次醉酒就足以导致肝脏损伤，一旦酒精中毒，还会影响大脑功能。
最佳节奏：跟着心跳喝。
合理的喝水方式是，每次100至150毫升，间隔为20至30分钟。喝下一口水的时间，最好与心脏跳动一下的时间接近，这样才能使心脏有规律、平稳地吸收进入体内的水分。
运动后最好过几分钟，等心脏跳动稍微平稳后，再着小口小口地喝些温开水。
上班族每工作半个小时就要休息一会儿，并喝100毫升左右的水；室外工作者最好随身携带水杯，稍觉口渴就喝；老人则应在家定个喝水时间表，不妨上个闹钟，至少每小时提醒一次，每次喝几口水。
吃饭
狼吞虎咽地吃完一餐饭后，是否意识到：癌细胞正躲过唾液这第一道健康卫士，趁虚而入。
据统计，40%的癌症与食物中的亚硝酸类化合物、化学合成剂、防腐剂等致癌物质有关。唾液在阻击这些坏物质的过程中，起了不可忽视的作用，咀嚼可促进唾液分泌。
一项统计显示，现代人吃饭太快，已从40多年前每餐咀嚼900至1100次、用时20至30分钟，下降为目前的每餐咀嚼500至600次、用时5至10分钟。
此外，日本大阪大学研究发现，吃饭速度快会导致肥胖几率翻倍。美国南卡罗莱纳医科大学研究人员指出，如果咀嚼不细，粗糙的食物会增加胃的负担，增加胃食管反流病的危险。
最佳节奏：一口饭嚼20次。
中国疾病预防控制中心营养与食品安全所副所长马冠生建议，吃饭一定要细嚼慢咽，最好用15至20分钟吃早餐，半小时左右吃中晚餐；老年人则应咀嚼25至50次，才能给饮食中枢足够的兴奋时间，帮助食物消化。
试验显示，两个人同吃一种食物，一人细嚼，另一人粗嚼，结果细嚼的人比粗嚼的人多吸收蛋白质13%、脂肪12%、纤维素43%。
细嚼慢咽可增加唾液的分泌量，让它与食物充分混合，增进营养的消化吸收。
此外，吃饭慢还能解毒。高温油炸、烧烤食物中产生的致癌物苯并芘等，能在人体唾液酶的作用下被部分分解。
苹果等水果若吃超过15分钟，其中的有机酸和果酸就有足够时间杀死口腔细菌，有效清洁口腔。
走路
生活中不是所有事情都要按下“慢进键”，有些动作快点反而更好。美国匹兹堡大学研究人员对3万4000名65岁以上老人的研究发现，结合个人病史、吸烟和血压等情况，走路速度大体可以预测老年人的剩余寿命。
一般来说，步伐80厘米／秒的老人能达到70至75岁，步伐超过1米／秒的老人寿命可超过75岁。
北京体育大学运动人体科学学院教授陆一帆认为，走路速度和身体机能是相辅相成的。一般来说，走得快的人，心脏、肌肉、骨骼等各方面机能都比常人强，平衡能力、协调能力也比较好，对疾病的抵抗能力和对意外事故的防范能力自然更佳；反过来说，长期有规律地快走，也能提高人体各方面生理机能，如减缓老年人的血管老化，让他们显得更年轻。
最佳节奏：每分钟120步。
寿命是“走”出来的。随着年龄的增长，人的走路频率会逐步下降，步幅也会变小。年轻人一般7至10分钟走1公里，步幅在0.75米左右，四五十岁以上的人走1公里就需要10分钟以上了。
陆一帆提醒，老年人尽管步履蹒跚，但在保证安全的基础上，还是应该尽量把步子放快一点。日本东京保健体育教授波多野则建议，快速步行时间一般要持续半小时左右，速度以每分钟120步左右为宜。步行时，身体要略微向前倾斜，双臂自然下垂，协调地前后摆动于身体两侧。全身着力于脚掌前部，步态要均匀、沉稳而有节奏，走到微微出汗即可。
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Using ratios to assess my financial position
The personal financial ratios aim to serve as warning signals and help detect any deterioration in my financial position. And if situation arises, I can take any necessary actions such as altering my expenditure pattern or evaluate my goals.
Here are some ratios to use which I have classified them accordingly:
1) Solvency
Purpose - indicates the probability that an individual will become bankrupt
Equation - net worth / total assets
Implication - the higher the ratio, the stronger is my financial position
Warning bell - negative = insolvent
2) Liquidity
Purpose - measures my ability to pay off the short-term liabilities
Equation - current (liquid) assets / current liabilities
Implication - the higher the ratio, the stronger is my current financial situation
Warning bell - lower than 1.0
3) Savings
Purpose - measures the proportion of my income saved in a year
Equation - cash surplus / total annual income
Implication - 40% of my net earned income which should translate to higher ratio
Warning bell - negative = over-spending (except for one-off, big-ticket items)
4) Debt Service
Purpose - measures my ability to service loan payment in a prompt and timely fashion
Equation - total annual cash loan payment / total annual income
Implication - the smaller the ratio, the better is my ability to service the loans
Warning bell - more than 0.4 = too highly leveraged
5) Gearing
Purpose - measures how much leverage I have undertaken to acquire my assets
Equation - long-term liabilities / total assets
Implication - the higher the ratio, the higher the probability of bankruptcy
Warning bell - current cash flow can't pay off monthly loan repayment
For myself, I use the ratios monthly when I consolidate my personal financial figures (of income, expenditure, cash budget etc.)
But I do make it a point as not to get too disappointed should one of the ratios fall below the benchmark due to specific circumstances. Otherwise, we will be living in a highly regulated personal system that literally adds more stress, just like a pressure-cooker.
My objective is to keep within the framework as much as I can while focusing on my financial targets. My achievements are documented when I exceed my expectation.
How about you? Did you try the ratios? If not, go on....take 15 minutes break and do a quick calculation. See the results personally.
You might also like:
Here are some ratios to use which I have classified them accordingly:
1) Solvency
Purpose - indicates the probability that an individual will become bankrupt
Equation - net worth / total assets
Implication - the higher the ratio, the stronger is my financial position
Warning bell - negative = insolvent
2) Liquidity
Purpose - measures my ability to pay off the short-term liabilities
Equation - current (liquid) assets / current liabilities
Implication - the higher the ratio, the stronger is my current financial situation
Warning bell - lower than 1.0
3) Savings
Purpose - measures the proportion of my income saved in a year
Equation - cash surplus / total annual income
Implication - 40% of my net earned income which should translate to higher ratio
Warning bell - negative = over-spending (except for one-off, big-ticket items)
4) Debt Service
Purpose - measures my ability to service loan payment in a prompt and timely fashion
Equation - total annual cash loan payment / total annual income
Implication - the smaller the ratio, the better is my ability to service the loans
Warning bell - more than 0.4 = too highly leveraged
5) Gearing
Purpose - measures how much leverage I have undertaken to acquire my assets
Equation - long-term liabilities / total assets
Implication - the higher the ratio, the higher the probability of bankruptcy
Warning bell - current cash flow can't pay off monthly loan repayment
For myself, I use the ratios monthly when I consolidate my personal financial figures (of income, expenditure, cash budget etc.)
But I do make it a point as not to get too disappointed should one of the ratios fall below the benchmark due to specific circumstances. Otherwise, we will be living in a highly regulated personal system that literally adds more stress, just like a pressure-cooker.
My objective is to keep within the framework as much as I can while focusing on my financial targets. My achievements are documented when I exceed my expectation.
How about you? Did you try the ratios? If not, go on....take 15 minutes break and do a quick calculation. See the results personally.
You might also like:
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Acid Reflux Diet Plan
If you have suffered from acid reflux, you know how much of a difference your diet plan can make in reducing your symptoms. The acid reflux diet offered below reveals a lot of great tips that you can use to reduce your heartburn.
I have split up this acid reflux diet into two parts: foods you will want to avoid as well as foods to add to your diet to reduce your heartburn.
Acid Reflux Diet - Foods to Avoid
Alcohol
Chocolate
Carbonated Beverages
Mints (both Peppermint and Spearmint - can include things like toothpaste - so keep an eye out for mints)
Citrus (though some people report lemons actually reduce heartburn)
Tomatoes (includes things like salsas and spaghetti/marinara sauce count here!)
Spicy foods (any sort of hot food)
Coffee (including decaf)
High-fat foods
Dairy (of all sorts; casein (a type of milk protein) and lactose can cause a lot of people digestive distress)
To reiterate the previous point, a lot of the foods on this acid reflux diet plan are individual; some people for example may tolerate tomatoes but be unable to have mints, or vice versa. You will have to try this out for yourself to see which particular foods are problematic for you.
While these foods are a good starting place, you can get more in-depth acid reflux diet plan in Heartburn No More, which you can check out by clicking here.
Acid Reflux Diet - Foods Good for Reflux
While some foods you will definitely want to avoid on your acid reflux diet plan, there are foods that may help you out. The benefits of the foods listed here include helping improve digestion as well as reducing the damage acid reflux inflicts.
With that said, here is a list of foods you can include on your acid reflux diet plan:
Papaya - Papaya contains papain, which is an enzyme that helps digest protein (also called a protease). This can reduce reflux and be especially beneficial for people who use acid-reducers.
Pineapple - Pineapple is rich in bromelain, another protease which benefits digestion in the same way as papaya.
Protein - any protein-rich food can increase the pressure exerted by the lower esophageal sphincter (the muscle band which helps seal off the stomach), stopping heartburn cold. Protein rich meals for this reason are very good for those suffering from reflux.
Good sources of protein include lean animal meats as well as even protein powders or other supplements. Sometimes fatty meats can help contribute to heartburn, so stick to leaner sources of protein on your acid reflux diet, such as chicken breasts and fish.
Fiber - People who eat high fiber diets have been shown to suffer less esophageal damage than their low-fiber counterparts. Many foods are rich in fiber, but some good sources include non-starchy vegetables and fruits (particularly berries).
By adding some tropical fruits like papaya and pineapple to a protein and fiber-rich diet can really help reduce heartburn as well as improve your overall health!
I have split up this acid reflux diet into two parts: foods you will want to avoid as well as foods to add to your diet to reduce your heartburn.
Acid Reflux Diet - Foods to Avoid
Alcohol
Chocolate
Carbonated Beverages
Mints (both Peppermint and Spearmint - can include things like toothpaste - so keep an eye out for mints)
Citrus (though some people report lemons actually reduce heartburn)
Tomatoes (includes things like salsas and spaghetti/marinara sauce count here!)
Spicy foods (any sort of hot food)
Coffee (including decaf)
High-fat foods
Dairy (of all sorts; casein (a type of milk protein) and lactose can cause a lot of people digestive distress)
To reiterate the previous point, a lot of the foods on this acid reflux diet plan are individual; some people for example may tolerate tomatoes but be unable to have mints, or vice versa. You will have to try this out for yourself to see which particular foods are problematic for you.
While these foods are a good starting place, you can get more in-depth acid reflux diet plan in Heartburn No More, which you can check out by clicking here.
Acid Reflux Diet - Foods Good for Reflux
While some foods you will definitely want to avoid on your acid reflux diet plan, there are foods that may help you out. The benefits of the foods listed here include helping improve digestion as well as reducing the damage acid reflux inflicts.
With that said, here is a list of foods you can include on your acid reflux diet plan:
Papaya - Papaya contains papain, which is an enzyme that helps digest protein (also called a protease). This can reduce reflux and be especially beneficial for people who use acid-reducers.
Pineapple - Pineapple is rich in bromelain, another protease which benefits digestion in the same way as papaya.
Protein - any protein-rich food can increase the pressure exerted by the lower esophageal sphincter (the muscle band which helps seal off the stomach), stopping heartburn cold. Protein rich meals for this reason are very good for those suffering from reflux.
Good sources of protein include lean animal meats as well as even protein powders or other supplements. Sometimes fatty meats can help contribute to heartburn, so stick to leaner sources of protein on your acid reflux diet, such as chicken breasts and fish.
Fiber - People who eat high fiber diets have been shown to suffer less esophageal damage than their low-fiber counterparts. Many foods are rich in fiber, but some good sources include non-starchy vegetables and fruits (particularly berries).
By adding some tropical fruits like papaya and pineapple to a protein and fiber-rich diet can really help reduce heartburn as well as improve your overall health!
Acid Reflux Diet and Breakfast
With the frequency that people have reflux problems through the night while they are sleeping, chances are they are waking up with heartburn. And in that case, they are more likely to go eat antacids for breakfast, than they are food that is going to make them feel worse.
However, breakfast is also the most important meal of the day. Breakfast helps stabilize your blood sugar levels after sleeping, and provides energy to start the day. It has also been shown that people who skip breakfast will eat more throughout the day. And what is one of the biggest problems for acid reflux and heartburn – eating fewer and larger meals, as that is shown to cause and/or make your problems worse. Deleting breakfast from your acid reflux diet is not a heartburn remedy.
Acid Reflux And Life Style
Preventing acid reflux and heartburn is going to entail making lifestyle changes. You eat breakfast, and then what happens? That overnight heartburn that you may have already had, coupled with the food that you just ate for breakfast [you just couldn’t resist ‘wolfing’ down that Egg McMuffin while you were driving] get together and give you more reflux and worse heartburn. Start your day with more energy, not hardly; you are starting your day in pain, and just want to go turn around and go home. But instead, there goes another round of antacids to try to keep you going.
How is that for breakfast and an acid reflux diet – acid reflux trigger foods ‘washed’ down with antacids to try and get rid of the heartburn pain. Lunch and dinner tend to be easier meals for heartburn sufferers. You have a wider range of food choices that are more appealing later in the day than they are for breakfast.
And you also aren’t in such a rush, giving you more time to prepare a good meal – and not having to eat it so fast, which of course is one of the heartburn don’ts.
Yes, acid reflux diet and breakfast is quite a problem, because so many of the breakfast food choices cause heartburn. Your fried eggs, with toast and butter, and orange juice and coffee – or that rush through the fast food restaurant, are of the worst foods that can be eaten. These can be expected to cause heartburn, certainly negating the benefits that eating breakfast are supposed to give you.
Breakfast Food Choices For Acid Reflux
So what are you going to do – you need to eat breakfast, but you aren’t going to do so if it is only going to make you feel worse. To begin with, how about getting up 15 minutes earlier so you aren’t in such a rush and fast food becomes your only breakfast alternative. And then, how about if you quit brain washing yourself into thinking that you need caffeine to get going? I remember my old routine, get up and skip breakfast except for 2-3 cups of coffee, have a diet coke at my desk, and then eat tums throughout the morning – I have chipped teeth from tums.
There are many acid reflux diet food choices for breakfast that don’t take much time to prepare, and that can actually help to reduce reflux and heartburn instead of causing it. And you can adapt to some changes in food choices that will help you even more – you really don’t need to eat that last piece of cold pizza for breakfast to keep it from going to waste.
Good food choices will include whole-grains, fruits and vegetables, and protein – just like any well balance healthy meal. In fact, that is one of the major benefits of an acid reflux diet, besides helping prevent or getting rid of heartburn, it is also a diet that promotes good health.
Whole grain breakfast food choices can be found in oatmeal, whole grain cereals, or whole grain breads. These are important for your acid reflux diet. They have fiber which makes them easier to digest, they don’t require as much acid during digestion, and actually they break down during digestion in a way that can absorb excess acid.
Additionally, whole grains include the antioxidant selenium, which has been shown to help protect the cell lining in the esophagus.
Fruits and vegetables are great for breakfast – what could be better than starting the day with an apple, or eating some fruit on your whole grain cereal. Just remember to stay away from the citrus fruits or juices, and especially no tomato juice as it is very highly acidic. Drink natural apple or grape juice as something that helps reduce acid. And if you can eat pizza and drink coke for breakfast, then you sure could get used to eating some broccoli – or how about some steamed broccoli with some egg whites.
Protein is an important food choice. It makes you feel more full and thus can help prevent overeating. And protein is the food source that helps build and repair muscles – this could include strengthening the muscles associated with your esophagus. As in all acid reflux diets, make sure that your proteins are low in fat content, because fat takes longer to digest and needs more acid to do so, thus increasing the likelihood of reflux heart burn. This means skim milk instead of whole milk, egg whites instead of the whole egg – and no more of that bacon or the fatty meats and fried foods in those breakfast sandwiches.
Breakfast And Lifestyle Changes
My lifestyle has changed the last few years; I was gaining weight as I was getting older, and I had heartburn that became acid reflux disease. Besides making some very big acid reflux diet changes, it now includes going to the gym in the morning before starting work. So, breakfast is very important to me after working out, but I also lose some extra time that I could have had for eating.
I eat a banana on the way to the gym, which helps settle my stomach. And then for breakfast I want a lot of protein, and to be sure that I have a relatively high protein to carbohydrate ratio; I want energy and not a spike in my blood sugar level. I usually drink a vanilla protein powder shake, and eat a cup of Greek yogurt [it is low fat and has extra protein], and an apple – delicious.
I feel very good throughout the morning, and with no more coffee and diet cokes to ‘help’ me through – if I want something else to eat, I have another apple. Breakfast is very important to our health, and you have lots of food choices that not only won’t cause heartburn, but can actually help control it. But like in the case of all acid reflux diet choices, there are tradeoffs and lifestyle changes to be made to get rid of heartburn, and to get health benefits from what we eat –vs- eating in a way that makes heartburn become worse, and even have it lead to acid reflux disease.
However, breakfast is also the most important meal of the day. Breakfast helps stabilize your blood sugar levels after sleeping, and provides energy to start the day. It has also been shown that people who skip breakfast will eat more throughout the day. And what is one of the biggest problems for acid reflux and heartburn – eating fewer and larger meals, as that is shown to cause and/or make your problems worse. Deleting breakfast from your acid reflux diet is not a heartburn remedy.
Acid Reflux And Life Style
Preventing acid reflux and heartburn is going to entail making lifestyle changes. You eat breakfast, and then what happens? That overnight heartburn that you may have already had, coupled with the food that you just ate for breakfast [you just couldn’t resist ‘wolfing’ down that Egg McMuffin while you were driving] get together and give you more reflux and worse heartburn. Start your day with more energy, not hardly; you are starting your day in pain, and just want to go turn around and go home. But instead, there goes another round of antacids to try to keep you going.
How is that for breakfast and an acid reflux diet – acid reflux trigger foods ‘washed’ down with antacids to try and get rid of the heartburn pain. Lunch and dinner tend to be easier meals for heartburn sufferers. You have a wider range of food choices that are more appealing later in the day than they are for breakfast.
And you also aren’t in such a rush, giving you more time to prepare a good meal – and not having to eat it so fast, which of course is one of the heartburn don’ts.
Yes, acid reflux diet and breakfast is quite a problem, because so many of the breakfast food choices cause heartburn. Your fried eggs, with toast and butter, and orange juice and coffee – or that rush through the fast food restaurant, are of the worst foods that can be eaten. These can be expected to cause heartburn, certainly negating the benefits that eating breakfast are supposed to give you.
Breakfast Food Choices For Acid Reflux
So what are you going to do – you need to eat breakfast, but you aren’t going to do so if it is only going to make you feel worse. To begin with, how about getting up 15 minutes earlier so you aren’t in such a rush and fast food becomes your only breakfast alternative. And then, how about if you quit brain washing yourself into thinking that you need caffeine to get going? I remember my old routine, get up and skip breakfast except for 2-3 cups of coffee, have a diet coke at my desk, and then eat tums throughout the morning – I have chipped teeth from tums.
There are many acid reflux diet food choices for breakfast that don’t take much time to prepare, and that can actually help to reduce reflux and heartburn instead of causing it. And you can adapt to some changes in food choices that will help you even more – you really don’t need to eat that last piece of cold pizza for breakfast to keep it from going to waste.
Good food choices will include whole-grains, fruits and vegetables, and protein – just like any well balance healthy meal. In fact, that is one of the major benefits of an acid reflux diet, besides helping prevent or getting rid of heartburn, it is also a diet that promotes good health.
Whole grain breakfast food choices can be found in oatmeal, whole grain cereals, or whole grain breads. These are important for your acid reflux diet. They have fiber which makes them easier to digest, they don’t require as much acid during digestion, and actually they break down during digestion in a way that can absorb excess acid.
Additionally, whole grains include the antioxidant selenium, which has been shown to help protect the cell lining in the esophagus.
Fruits and vegetables are great for breakfast – what could be better than starting the day with an apple, or eating some fruit on your whole grain cereal. Just remember to stay away from the citrus fruits or juices, and especially no tomato juice as it is very highly acidic. Drink natural apple or grape juice as something that helps reduce acid. And if you can eat pizza and drink coke for breakfast, then you sure could get used to eating some broccoli – or how about some steamed broccoli with some egg whites.
Protein is an important food choice. It makes you feel more full and thus can help prevent overeating. And protein is the food source that helps build and repair muscles – this could include strengthening the muscles associated with your esophagus. As in all acid reflux diets, make sure that your proteins are low in fat content, because fat takes longer to digest and needs more acid to do so, thus increasing the likelihood of reflux heart burn. This means skim milk instead of whole milk, egg whites instead of the whole egg – and no more of that bacon or the fatty meats and fried foods in those breakfast sandwiches.
Breakfast And Lifestyle Changes
My lifestyle has changed the last few years; I was gaining weight as I was getting older, and I had heartburn that became acid reflux disease. Besides making some very big acid reflux diet changes, it now includes going to the gym in the morning before starting work. So, breakfast is very important to me after working out, but I also lose some extra time that I could have had for eating.
I eat a banana on the way to the gym, which helps settle my stomach. And then for breakfast I want a lot of protein, and to be sure that I have a relatively high protein to carbohydrate ratio; I want energy and not a spike in my blood sugar level. I usually drink a vanilla protein powder shake, and eat a cup of Greek yogurt [it is low fat and has extra protein], and an apple – delicious.
I feel very good throughout the morning, and with no more coffee and diet cokes to ‘help’ me through – if I want something else to eat, I have another apple. Breakfast is very important to our health, and you have lots of food choices that not only won’t cause heartburn, but can actually help control it. But like in the case of all acid reflux diet choices, there are tradeoffs and lifestyle changes to be made to get rid of heartburn, and to get health benefits from what we eat –vs- eating in a way that makes heartburn become worse, and even have it lead to acid reflux disease.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Will Wednesday's 5% Surge Kick Off a Year-End Rally?
Wednesday's surge was impressive. A quick thumbnail technical analysis allows for only one conclusion: Stocks will rally further.
The Dow soared nearly 500 points, the S&P and Nasdaq finished up 4.2% and small caps led the charge with a 5.8% gain. The VIX is 27% lower today than on November 1.
Trading volume on the NYSE clocked in at 1.66 billion, over 60% above the 10-day average. Up volume accounted for 97% of that day's trading. Assuming that this rally has further to go seems like a slam-dunk.
But a little bit of perspective is never bad. We saw a similar price and volume surge on October 27 when the S&P pushed as high as 1,293, and the Dow as high as 12,284. NYSE trading volume that day was almost 40% above the 10-day average.
The October 27 explosion lifted 94.5% of stocks above their 10-day average while Wednesday's squirt propelled 93.6%, but (and that's a big but) stocks tumbled more than 10% following the October 27 performance (more about what that means in a moment).
High Probability Profits
When it comes to trading, it's all about identifying high probability entry or exit points. There are always new trading opportunities, but the best opportunities are those where all stars (indicators) are aligned for a profitable trade.
The three best indicators, in my humble opinion, are a composite of technicals (support/resistance levels, Fibonacci analysis, trend lines, patterns, buy/sell signals, etc.), sentiment and seasonality. A high probability trade sees all three indicators pointing in the same direction.
Along with a few minor setups, we've gotten two major high probability signals this year. A sell signal in May and a buy signal in October.
In April, the S&P was closing in on major technical resistance, investor sentiment was outright bullish (which is bearish from a contrarian point of view) and seasonality was turning bearish (sell in May and go away).
The April 15 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'A major secondary market top is forming. It would simplify our forecast if the S&P would be able to reach the ideal 1,369 - 1,382 target for a major secondary market top before the summer doldrums.' The S&P topped on May 2 at 1,371. The rest is history.
Exactly the opposite was true at the October lows. The September 23 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provided this outlook: 'From its May high at 1,370 to its eventual low, the S&P will likely have lost about 300 points (22%). This kind of move validates a counter trend rally. Any drop below 1,088 may mark the end of the 2011 bear market leg. Such a drop may be only on an intraday basis.'
The S&P exploded 20% from its 1,075 intraday low on October 4 to its 1,293 high on October 27.
It's A Bit Murky
Based on a number of technical indicators and patterns (such as the 2008 decline), stocks were supposed to decline thereafter. Sentiment was also bullish enough not to prevent any further declines.
Seasonality however didn't agree. Pre-election year strength and a seasonally strong November/December/early January pointed towards higher prices.
A developing triangle in November also could have led to a breakout to the up side, but it didn't. I stated in the November 18 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter that: 'Due to bullish November, December and early January seasonality, I would have preferred a bullish triangle breakout. This would have kept prices afloat for another few weeks, sparked further enthusiasm and ultimately aligned 'the stars' for a nasty January decline. Seasonality remains an issue, so we'll look to profit from lower prices but we'll be cautious and won't buck the trend if stocks decide to rally past important resistance levels.'
Courtesy of the Wednesday rally, we are above those resistance levels now and won't buck the up side trend.
But not bucking it doesn't mean we can't try to figure out what stocks will do next.
Short-Term Outlook
At the onset of the article I compared Wednesday's seemingly bullish spike with the October 27 spike, which turned out bearish (see chart below).
I don't want to make a big deal out of a sample size of one, but it will take some follow through buying to get excited about Wednesday's bounce, at least over the short-term.
The technical picture remains long and mid-term bearish even if we get enough buyers rushing in. Additionally, the bullish seasonality won't last too much longer and higher prices will turn sentiment bullish, which will be bearish for stocks.
Despite the possibility of higher prices, I believe that the next big profit opportunity will be to go short. The key is to get the right entry point and not prematurely swing the bat before the ball is thrown.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Thursday, November 3, 2011
有點像 08至09年
恒生指數在50天平均線前顯著反彈，代表歐洲問題已經解決嗎？還是中國真的放款嗎？我只覺得昨日回升的因素，太不成理由，所以11月份港股壓力會持續。
首先希臘的公投問題反映 出歐盟之方案，並沒有做好溝通，德國及法國只希望尋找自身利益，但從來沒有考慮方案之可行性，所以希臘的「反抗」十分正常，而且這只是一個開始，因為當葡萄牙、愛爾蘭，甚至意大利等國，考慮到歐盟對希臘的削債方案，根本未能有效解決希臘的財政問題，而希臘債券孳息仍然可以急速上升，那麼一旦歐盟要求債券持有人，對自己的國債進行削債計劃時，最終換來的可能是反效果，這些國家亦會開始考慮，是否應該接受歐盟之建議。
還有更嚴重的問題，為有多少家金融機構，會因為歐債的撇帳，而出現財政問題？雖然明富環球可能涉及違規行為，可是我不相信只是個別事件，如果希臘的債券價格繼續受壓，同時葡萄牙、愛爾蘭等債價受到拖累，又或者歐洲債券的相關CDS繼續出現異動，那麼只會有更多歐美的金融機構，盈利或財政受到壓力，屆時全球股市是否可以安然度過危機，還有待觀察。
當然，我相信港股就算再受歐債問題所影響，最差的情況亦可能只是回吐至10月份的低位，又或者在17,000點水平已找到支持，情況就如08年雷曼兄弟倒閉後，港股於10月份低見10,600點的水平後顯著反彈，但由於美國的市況仍然未穩定，所以恒生指數於09年3月，再度下試11,000點的水平，才正式完成調整，並開始新的升浪。
如果參考08至09年的例子，當時港股比美股早5個月見底回升的主要原因，為當時中國先行推出救市方案，所以令中資股先行獲得支持。而我相信恒生指數有機會已在10月份見到整個調整浪的底部，主要原因則是亞太區已經開始減息周期，因此令資金有機會再度流入香港金融市場，令港股在面對歐債危機時，會有較佳的表現。
可是，為何我仍然堅持投資者不應在早前貿然入市，主要原因有幾點：首先，澳洲當時的息率去向仍然未明，所以在未確認亞太區是否步入減息周期前，我對港股抵禦歐債危機的能力仍然有懷疑；第二、如果參考08至09年的例子，真正可以享受恒生指數超過10,000點升幅的入市時機，為09年3月，而非08年10月，因為當外圍不穩時，投資者持貨的心態會極受影響；第三、為歐洲一直都沒有以積極的態度，去面對債務危機，雖然我仍然不認同上周所推出的方案，但至少各國已開始作出讓步，所以金融市場的反應，會較之前正面。
故此，如果恒生指數真的在年內，跌至17,000點的水平，我會開始建議投資者買入一些具有質素之股份，當中會包括銀河娛樂(027)及IT(999)。不過，我要再一次強調，上述兩家公司，現在只在我的觀察名單內，不代表現時為買入此兩股的最佳時間。
首先希臘的公投問題反映 出歐盟之方案，並沒有做好溝通，德國及法國只希望尋找自身利益，但從來沒有考慮方案之可行性，所以希臘的「反抗」十分正常，而且這只是一個開始，因為當葡萄牙、愛爾蘭，甚至意大利等國，考慮到歐盟對希臘的削債方案，根本未能有效解決希臘的財政問題，而希臘債券孳息仍然可以急速上升，那麼一旦歐盟要求債券持有人，對自己的國債進行削債計劃時，最終換來的可能是反效果，這些國家亦會開始考慮，是否應該接受歐盟之建議。
還有更嚴重的問題，為有多少家金融機構，會因為歐債的撇帳，而出現財政問題？雖然明富環球可能涉及違規行為，可是我不相信只是個別事件，如果希臘的債券價格繼續受壓，同時葡萄牙、愛爾蘭等債價受到拖累，又或者歐洲債券的相關CDS繼續出現異動，那麼只會有更多歐美的金融機構，盈利或財政受到壓力，屆時全球股市是否可以安然度過危機，還有待觀察。
當然，我相信港股就算再受歐債問題所影響，最差的情況亦可能只是回吐至10月份的低位，又或者在17,000點水平已找到支持，情況就如08年雷曼兄弟倒閉後，港股於10月份低見10,600點的水平後顯著反彈，但由於美國的市況仍然未穩定，所以恒生指數於09年3月，再度下試11,000點的水平，才正式完成調整，並開始新的升浪。
如果參考08至09年的例子，當時港股比美股早5個月見底回升的主要原因，為當時中國先行推出救市方案，所以令中資股先行獲得支持。而我相信恒生指數有機會已在10月份見到整個調整浪的底部，主要原因則是亞太區已經開始減息周期，因此令資金有機會再度流入香港金融市場，令港股在面對歐債危機時，會有較佳的表現。
可是，為何我仍然堅持投資者不應在早前貿然入市，主要原因有幾點：首先，澳洲當時的息率去向仍然未明，所以在未確認亞太區是否步入減息周期前，我對港股抵禦歐債危機的能力仍然有懷疑；第二、如果參考08至09年的例子，真正可以享受恒生指數超過10,000點升幅的入市時機，為09年3月，而非08年10月，因為當外圍不穩時，投資者持貨的心態會極受影響；第三、為歐洲一直都沒有以積極的態度，去面對債務危機，雖然我仍然不認同上周所推出的方案，但至少各國已開始作出讓步，所以金融市場的反應，會較之前正面。
故此，如果恒生指數真的在年內，跌至17,000點的水平，我會開始建議投資者買入一些具有質素之股份，當中會包括銀河娛樂(027)及IT(999)。不過，我要再一次強調，上述兩家公司，現在只在我的觀察名單內，不代表現時為買入此兩股的最佳時間。
全城悲觀入市好時機
3年前金融海嘯，收到一位 88歲老伯伯來信，信中滿載悲觀情緒，原因是他手上的股票大幅貶值，當時讀了來信後，我在《蘋果日報》公開給這位老伯伯提點意見，及後，負責管理他所住屋邨的慈善機構，邀請我到該屋邨演說，我見到這位老伯伯， 88歲的老伯伯，笑起來像小孩子。
昨日，《蘋果日報》編輯部轉來一封信，原來是這位老伯伯寫的，老伯伯現在 91歲，仍健康快樂的生活，對投資依然有很濃的興趣，他在信中提起「曾氏通道」，他希望《蘋果日報》每星期刊登一次「曾氏通道」，不過我認為不可行。
《蘋果日報》版位很緊張很珍貴，不可能每星期撥出位置刊登「曾氏通道」，因此，我只能做不定期地向大家報告最新的情況，實際上我自己很忙，也不常查看「曾氏通道」，還記得 2008年 10月底，我是在「曾氏通道」見底後的第 3天，才因為有讀者來信通知我，說他發現「曾氏通道」已經見底了，問我是不是可以入市時，我方知「曾氏通道」已經見底；事實上，這是一個不錯的入市訊號。
別人瘋狂時要冷靜
昨日，我翻查最新的「曾氏通道」，發現上個月恒指一度非常接近「曾氏通道」的 95%悲觀線，然後反彈，算不上見底，但非常接近見底，非常接近見底或見底的意義，就是非常股市中悲觀氣氛太濃了，股價已經非常超值。
現在，恒指已經從低位反彈 4000點，昨日才出現一次比較像樣的調整，因此，已經很久沒有在《蘋果日報》旗下「港股王」出現的我，昨午就在「港股王」建議大家，不妨趁昨午的調整入市。目前，市場的悲觀氣氛依然濃厚，我翻了幾份報章，多數評論都在說歐債危機依然嚴重，仍未解決。
投資之道是別人全都悲觀時你樂觀，別人瘋狂入市時你冷靜。
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Use Time Wisely to Change Your Life
Time. I am writing this as I'm listening to a time management lecture by Randy Pausch, the guy who essentially wrote, "The Last Lecture" (Jeff Zaslow really wrote it, but it was based on the lecture by Randy Pausch). Great book... I definitely recommend it. Anyways, time. Time is ticking by right now. Sometimes it goes by so fast and sometimes it feels so slow. Why is that?
I also love the book Stargirl and Love, Stargirl by Jerry Spinelli. In Stargirl, there is this quote that always stuck with me...
“Nobody has the time. The time cannot be owned. Time is free to everyone!”
If you really think about it, time is the one thing we have that is always free, always there. Time never stops and always keeps going. Whether you want it to go slower, or faster, need more... it remains the same. Concurrently, we don't know how much of it we will have in our lives. Even if you receive a death sentence, a doctor cannot tell you the specific day in which you will die and your time here will cease.
In my opinion, here are the most important things that we need to remember as it pertains to time, or the management of it. If you leave with one thing, remember that even the smallest action, taking the shortest amount of time, can have great consequences.
- Get organized.
Okay, okay, I do work at a place named Organize-It, I've compulsively made my bed every day since I was 5 years old, and everyone knows how neat I am. But still, I think it is important to everyone. Think about a time when you couldn't do something because you couldn't find it. I strongly believe you will get a lot more work done if you just take the time to put things in order first. - Get the bad stuff done first.
Okay, I am definitely bad at this one sometimes. Jot down a to-do list and get done that dreaded homework, head off to work, or clean your room before you go out and have fun. I'd guarantee you might have more time to do the things you like if you get the other stuff done first. In addition, you won't be mulling over the dreaded tasks that you've been procrastinating! - Think about what you're doing right now.
Surfing the web mindlessly? Watching TV? Anything else you could be doing that would be more productive or more satisfying? I strongly believe you need your downtime so don't freak out claiming that I believe we all need to keep our heads down working. However, I know I spend more time doing 'down things' than I really need to. - I think a lot of people waste time being mad.
Don't hold grudges; argue and fix it. Spend lots of loving time with the people you love. You don't know how long you might have with them. - "Failing to plan is planning to fail."
Plan your day, plan your life, and plan to leave room for days or minutes when you have nothing at all planned to do.
"Dost thou love life? Then waste not time; for time is the stuff that life is made of."
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