My Time

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Lion Forest

Is anyone following Lion Forest Industries Berhad? Seems to be an interesting value proposition… Would be grateful if the value investing experts on this forum can advise. Lion Forest share price is approx. RM1.15 right now. NTA per share is RM3.62 per share, i.e. more than 3x the share price. Most of this NTA is in cash or receivables from the sale of its forestry business: - Lion Forest had sold off its loss-making forestry business, Sabah Forest Industries Sdn Bhd (which had been the main business) in March 2007 for RM945 mn or RM4.50 per share. - Of the RM4.50 per share of sale proceeds, Lion Forest has already distributed RM2 per share to shareholders. - As at 30 Jun 07, the company still has RM523 mn in cash from the sale proceeds + RM40 mn of its original cash balance = or RM2.70 of cash per share - Gearing is low (RM57 mn or RM0.27 per share), so that is not the issue - The remaining businesses: building materials and steel and a tyre business have turned the corner and are now profitable. Taking into consideration the above, it looks like there is an arbitrage opportunity here… pay 1 ringgit to get 3 ringgit? Lion Forest can easily pay out another RM2 per share in dividends if it wants to… so the share at RM1.15 seems unreal... can't have a negative share price, right??? There is also a good possibility that the Lion Group (big player) will buy back the shares at NTA per share (any lower and people won't sell). Is the market mispricing this stock? Just now thinking about placing a bet on Lion Forest… hopefully the above analysis is reasonable. Please let me know what you think.

No comments: